Attention! The era of electric mobility has commenced
Nobody can deny that the 20th century was an era marked by the emergence of milestone inventions. However, the 21st century is expected to be an era characterized by their smart evolution. The dominance of automobiles driven by internal combustion engines (ICE) will gradually give way to electric mobility. According to a research study conducted by the Boston Consulting Group, by 2030, the production output of electric cars might surpass the corresponding output of cars powered by ICE. At the same time, Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysts forecast, in their Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018, that, by 2030, the cost of making an electric car will be lower than that of a car powered by an ICE. In other words, in less than 15 years from now, the electric car will have become dominant, as well as the cheapest type of passenger car. This is an astonishing prediction, bearing in mind that, just 13 years ago, the sales of electric cars were under a few hundred globally...
“The dice has been cast”; several countries have already announced large-scale plans towards the electrification of their car fleets. France has announced the gradual termination of selling petrol- and diesel-driven vehicles by 2040. Τhe multinational project titled "Electric Vehicle Initiative", with 10 countries involved, such as China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, predicts 30% of the sales of vehicles to consist of electric models by 2030. India has also set 2030 as a landmark year for the sale of exclusively electric-powered automobiles, in response to the constantly growing level of environmental pollution that is caused by the country’s rapid growth. All data support that, by 2030, the movement of the global population will be driven more by electric power, than diesel or petrol.
The challenges
The tipping point in the evolution of the plug in car from niche product to mainstream will come when two combining factors are met:
- the cost per unit produced becomes competitive compared to ICE vehicles
- an extensive charging station network will be put in place. This is about to happen, and sooner than we used to think.
At the moment, the main problem associated with electric cars is the high price that consumers have to pay in order to purchase those cars, which is due to the high cost involved in the manufacture of their batteries. This problem, however, is expected to be eliminated soon, since the cost of Lithium-ion batteries has already dropped by 73% since 2010, and will continue to drop further. The energy density of batteries is also growing by 5-7% every year (BNEF). Countries like Germany have already undertaken huge investments in the field of research and development of new-type batteries that will increase the autonomy of electric cars, as well as their affordability to the average citizen.
In terms of the development of a charging network for electric cars, the European Union has already set new rules and regulations that require member states to promote the use of clean technologies, such as electricity or hydrogen, also encouraging them to establish a minimum number of electric vehicle charging points. These new rules and regulations are included in the "Clean Power for Transport" package and, initially, they will have to be applied by 2020. This Strategy is integrated within the framework of the target set by the E.U. to be achieved by 2050, which refers to the reduction of the transport sector emissions by 60%, compared to the 1990 levels, and the restriction of the temperature rise of the planet to just 2oC.
The need for an investment "big bang"
Market take-up, however, requires additional policy action.
In addition to the policies that have already been adopted by the E.U., strong political will is also required within the E.U. itself, in order to finance the establishment of EV charging points throughout Europe, introducing, at the same time, the regulatory framework which eliminates the barriers in the development of the electric cars.
Therefore, a program of extensive investment throughout Europe needs to be adopted and implemented, so that, in the next 5 years, the electric vehicle charging points will cover the entire territory and population of the European Union. This investment is an optimum decision to be made by the E.U., in order to be able to provide improved environmental conditions to its citizens. The process of the establishment of this network should be accelerated, since, in this way, the citizens of the E.U. will benefit in full from the shift from conventional cars to electric ones. The cost of EVs is to reach parity with traditional cars sooner than expected, even without subsidies and before even taking the fuel savings cost into account. Therefore, this boost in investment in the charging infrastructure will result in the faster adoption and use of electric cars by the entire population.
Our vision
Enel has already decided from a very early stage, to invest in the future of electric mobility. Particularly, Enel has undertaken a five-year plan for installing charging infrastructure in Italy: 14,000 stations by 2022, with a total investment of up to 300 million euros. Currently, agreements for the installation of about 4,300 charging stations have been signed with industrial, commercial and government organisations that will enable the roll-out of 60-80 stations a week in Italy. In Romania, we are getting ready for the roll-out of an ambitious plan that we will announce shortly. As it becomes clear, a revolution is about to take place. This is a tangible sign of the company's vision and orientation towards the production and use of sustainable energy to serve the needs of millions of citizens. It demonstrates the company's commitment towards the encouragement of the use of environmentally-clean means of transport, through the use of electric power.
The E.U., national governments and large energy corporations face the challenge of jointly shaping the new landscape for car driving. The integration of renewable energy sources, the reduction of the production cost of smart vehicles, and the increasing need for the protection of the environment press for a faster transition to this new era.
The era of electric mobility has just commenced, and it is worth investing in!
Business Development $ Senior Planning and Optimization Officer
6 年As long as we have crude oil this era is far away.?
#Technology Evangelist #Executive Advisor #Digital Transformation #Strategic Planning #Operational Excellence #Sustainability #Refining Expert #Oil Industry Expert #Energy Transition Expert #Author #Speaker
6 年What I find absolutely amazing is that in the frenzy of transportation going electric, nobody is asking what are the ingredients that power those vehicles and how sustainable are they. And if one looks into it, one gets very scared indeed. The battery technology used today for transportation purposes, the Li-ion chemistry, which yields the highest power and charge density of them all, employs two elements that are in rather short supply: lithium and yttrium. At the rate of consumption of 228,000mt/year for 2018, when less than 1% of total car park worldwide is electric, and estimated reserves in 2018 of around 16,000,000mt, lithium is in short supply. The average car battery needs 10kg of lithium. Global car sales today are at about 80 million per year. Assuming 50% of those cars to be electric, no demand growth and including demand coming from new vehicles only, the lithium reserves are exhausted in 40 years. If we factor in all the ommitted elements above, the reserves last for anything between 15 and 20 years. Not very encouraging. So we clearly see that the Li-ion battery storage for electric propulsion is not sustainable. What are the alternatives then? Hydrogen is the more likely answer. Either through direct use in internal combustion engines, or in fuel cells.
Driving Innovation in Payments & E-commerce at Token Financial Technologies
6 年We might have a solution for your station to fully digital.?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn-ieK8Z7uE
Founder & CEO at Quarticle
6 年More interesting then consumption terminal network development would be to hear about your plan on the in network ingestion for private and business. Germany is way ahead of Italy and Romania.
CEO at Spin Communications
6 年An article with global inpact. Great work!