Asteroid Collision?! Enormous Visitors Looming from Outer Space
In December 2024, an asteroid was discovered and sparked discussions about the probability of it colliding with Earth. At one point, a prediction suggested there was a “2% chance of impact in 2032,” but these numbers can change from moment to moment with ongoing observations and analyses. It’s best to avoid sensationalism based on preliminary data.
However, after March 2025, 2024 YR4 will move into a position where it’s harder to observe from Earth, and the next opportunity to capture it again is said to be around 2028. Because of this, it would be helpful if NASA could provide more transparent information about the basis for calculating its collision probability (and if such data is already out there, please excuse me).
Fascinating Research on the Outer Regions of the Solar System
Meanwhile, a separate study has reported intriguing simulation results suggesting that a large number of massive asteroids (or meteorites) may be flowing into the outer edges of the solar system from a neighboring star system.
It has long been hypothesized that a mysterious region called the Oort Cloud exists in the outermost part of our solar system. According to this new research, there could be as many as one million large asteroids—possibly originating from Proxima Centauri (around 4.2 light years away)—hovering around that area. Each one is purported to be bigger than the Statue of Liberty (approximately 46 meters tall)
Hearing this might raise some alarm, but as of now, there is virtually no indication that these objects pose any threat of nearing Earth. Still, the research suggests that even if these objects themselves don’t come close, smaller particle clusters might infiltrate the inner solar system or Earth’s vicinity.
Interstellar Objects: ‘Oumuamua and Comet Borisov
When it comes to interstellar objects observed within the solar system, ‘Oumuamua (Hawaiian for “scout”) is quite famous.
Another example is Comet Borisov, discovered in 2019. Along with ‘Oumuamua, it’s one of the few known interstellar objects, and I’ve also shared information about it in earlier articles, so check those out if you’re interested.
Prof. Avi Loeb’s Research on Interstellar Matter
The true nature of these interstellar objects continues to fascinate researchers like Professor Avi Loeb, who has been studying them extensively. In his latest papers, he even proposes more efficient methods for observing these objects. According to a recent blog post of his, with a dedicated space telescope, we could discover 10 or more interstellar objects every year, and in the future, it may even be possible to conduct close-up surveys using spacecraft.
Professor Loeb approaches the study of interstellar objects from the perspective of searching for traces of intelligent civilizations. However, these same observation techniques would also be extremely valuable for identifying potential Earth impact risks.
Preparing for Impact: Asteroid Deflection Plans
Finally, to balance out the unsettling nature of potential collisions, here’s an additional note: Should the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth ever become extremely high, both the United States and China are working on “asteroid orbit alteration” programs to defend against such threats.
In the U.S., there has already been a successful test—reminiscent of the movie Armageddon—though at this stage, it does not involve sending humans on the mission.
Going forward, a key challenge will be how to detect potentially dangerous celestial objects as early as possible so that these measures can be carried out swiftly. Through technological advancements and expanded observation networks, we hope to establish a robust system to avert any future collisions.