Assynt Special Report: FIFA World Cup

JIHADISTS WILL ATTEMPT HIGH PROFILE ATTACKS DURING WORLD CUP, MOSTLY IN RUSSIA BUT ALSO IN EUROPE AND AFRICA 

Jihadist interest in striking World Cup in Russia

Islamic State (IS) released a mocked-up image via encrypted messaging channel Telegram on 16 May showing its fighters preparing to behead footballers Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi at the upcoming FIFA World Cup, which will be held in Russia. A second fabricated image depicted an explosion at Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, the event’s main venue. IS and its supporters have issued numerous similar threats in recent months, for instance releasing an image showing the execution of Messi on 20 March. The tournament will take place at twelve venues in eleven Russian cities between 14 June and 15 July.

Jihadist groups have often sought to stage or inspire attacks during international sporting tournaments to capitalise on the events’ global media coverage and thereby maximise the propaganda impact of any violence. For instance, al-Qaeda called on its supporters to carry out attacks during the 2010 World Cup, which was held in South Africa. The group failed to attack the tournament directly, but Somali jihadist group, al-Shabab, which later pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, conducted suicide bombings against crowds watching the final in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, killing 74 people. IS supporters’ depiction of famous footballers in their recent propaganda, which has succeeded in generating substantial media coverage, indicates jihadists’ continuing desire to use the World Cup to raise their profile.

The host country, Russia, has special significance for jihadists given the Kremlin’s backing for President Assad in Syria, which has provoked intense opposition to Moscow among Sunnis worldwide. IS will thus want to be seen as leading the Sunni response to the Russian military campaign. Further, the modern jihadist movement was born out of resistance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, while the brutal conflict in the North Caucasus the following decade further fuelled Islamist hostility to Moscow. An attack in Russia during the World Cup will therefore allow IS to somewhat regain its credibility following the loss of its Caliphate in Syria and Iraq last year, especially as the start of the event will coincide with the end of Ramadan, which jihadists view as an auspicious time for violence.

Threat from well-trained Islamic State fighters

During the past year, IS’s central leadership in Syria and Iraq have focused their increasingly limited resources on operations in Iraq and Syria, rather than on attempting attacks elsewhere. However, given the potential propaganda benefits of a successful attack on the World Cup, it is possible that they may send capable fighters to Russia to attempt an attack there. This may involve sending well trained fighters, most likely of North Caucasus or Central Asian origin, to conduct a complex attack on World Cup-linked sites, for instance targeting stadiums, bars and transport networks simultaneously. However, the Russian security forces will be monitoring such returnees from Syria and Iraq, and are adept at preventing the vast majority of sophisticated attacks, especially in major cities, thus likely containing the threat of plots planned and directed by IS leaders abroad.

Threat from North Caucasus-based jihadist groups

Moscow has largely crushed separatist and jihadist groups in the South since the Army recaptured the Chechen capital in 2000. However, some remnants survived, notably as the al-Qaeda-aligned Caucasus Emirate, whose affiliate, Imam Shamil Battalion, was responsible for the April 2017 Saint Petersburg metro bombing that killed fifteen people. Rival, more hardline, jihadists pledged allegiance to IS in June 2015. This faction has subsequently conducted some low-level attacks, mostly in the North Caucasus. These have primarily targeted the security forces but also, increasingly, Christian sites, most recently opening fire on worshippers at a large Russian Orthodox church in Grozny on 20 May, killing three people. Both the Caucasus Emirate and the IS affiliate will attempt to carry out further attacks during the tournament to boost their respective profiles as part of their rivalry.

The capabilities of these two local groups are primarily confined to the North Caucasus, and so violence by these organisations is most likely there, for instance against security forces or targeting bars showing matches. This will also allow the groups to be seen as resisting Western influence in the mostly Muslim South. Nonetheless, last year’s Saint Petersburg metro bombing shows that the Caucasus Emirate can carry out sophisticated operations in the major cities of Russia proper, although pro-IS groups’ capabilities outside the Caucasus are more limited. However, both groups have ability to exploit the socio-economic frustrations of Central Asian Islamists resident in Russia, which have historically supported North Caucasus-based groups. Again, however, the security forces have developed sophisticated intelligence networks in the region and are highly effective at disrupting most sophisticated plots originating in the South, meaning that this threat will also be limited.

Threat from local Islamic State sympathisers

The primary aim of the recent IS propaganda around the World Cup is to encourage its sympathisers to carry out attacks independently. Such self-radicalised “lone wolf” assailants may look to target the security forces as this would be highly popular among jihadists and with much of the broader pro-Islamist Sunni population of Russia and Central Asia. They may also attempt to strike softer targets, such as transport hubs used by spectators, or crowds watching the tournament in public spaces, bars or restaurants. A successful attack on stadiums is less likely since IS sympathisers will struggle to overcome the substantial security measures at the sites, although violence may take place immediately outside such venues.

Risk of attacks outside Russia

Separately, jihadists elsewhere in the world who are supportive of IS or al-Qaeda will likely look to target spectators of the tournament locally, as occurred in Kampala eight years ago. Regions at greatest risk include Western Europe, in particular France, Belgium and Germany. Local jihadist groups in East Africa may also attempt to hit viewers, including in countries such as Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, as well as in West Africa, including in Mali, Burkina Faso, and potentially northern Nigeria and possibly Senegal. Jihadists in Muslim-majority countries where there is a well-established militant presence, as in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Somalia, and to a lesser extent Egypt, may also target crowds watching events, especially if these are composed of what militants see as “legitimate targets” such as Shias, Christians or the security forces, as such attacks will be popular with local Islamists and hardline conservatives.

SOME FOREIGN FANS, MINORITIES AND SAME-SEX COUPLES WILL BE AT PARTICULAR RISK OF VIOLENCE FROM RUSSIAN HOOLIGANS

Heightened nationalist sentiment in Russia

Russia’s hosting of the World Cup comes amid heightened tensions between the Kremlin and the West. Relations have been particularly strained in the past four years by differences over Moscow’s military interventions in Ukraine and Syria, alleged Russian interference in the US 2016 presidential election and a recent escalation in mutual sanctions following the poisoning of a former Russian intelligence officer in the UK. This has fuelled nationalist sentiment in Russia, meaning that despite the risks of jihadist violence, organised hooliganism will pose the most immediate threat to the safety of travellers to the World Cup.

The particular threat of Russian football hooliganism was demonstrated at the 2016 UEFA European Championship in France, which saw extremely well-trained activists linked to the Kremlin-backed Russian Union of Supporters carry out a planned assault on English fans in Marseille, including with hammers and iron bars. The violence was praised by several Russian politicians and received positive coverage in Kremlin-backed media. The Russian fans had particularly sought to demonstrate that they were better trained and equipped than English supporters, whom they credit with developing modern football hooliganism. It also came amid elevated tensions between Moscow and the West, which have escalated over the past two years.

Risk of coordinated assaults by hooligan groups

President Putin will likely encourage organised hooligan groups to refrain from mass violence, as a repeat of the Marseille assault, which Moscow blamed on French policing failures, would damage Russia’s image abroad, and thereby deter investors and tourists, as well as damage Russian bids for future high-profile international events. However, the Kremlin will struggle to contain all fan violence in the current climate of heightened nationalist sentiment, especially as some street fights with English and also Polish fans might further stir a sense of patriotism and reinforce the country’s siege mentality. Games involving Poland, Serbia and Croatia will also carry a heightened risk of unrest, because these countries’ fan groups include significant far-right elements. The authorities are likely to respond harshly to such violence, including with tear gas and batons. This will help to contain any unrest, though also create a high collateral risk to any visitors in the vicinity of such clashes.

Risk of isolated attacks on individuals in bars and on streets

Widespread xenophobia and nationalism in Russia, exacerbated in recent years by the Kremlin’s confrontational foreign policy and broad socio-economic discontent, means that the security threat international travellers are most likely to encounter will be isolated assaults on foreigners in the bars or on the streets, especially after dark. This threat will also be higher outside Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Russian hooligans are especially likely to seek to target small groups of male English visitors, more so than other European fans given that the UK is currently perceived as key geopolitical rival and the US failed to qualify for the tournament. There will also be a very high threat of racially-motivated violence towards ethnic minorities, especially those perceived as of African descent, while fans from the Middle East will also risk harassment from the security forces tasked with preventing jihadist attacks. Finally, widespread intolerance in Russia towards same-sex couples means that any overt displays of such affection risk provoking violent assaults and little sympathy from the authorities.

Risk of clashes between security forces and opposition activists

The previous two World Cup tournaments in South Africa and Brazil were marked by mass anti-government protests, partly driven by anger at the substantial cost of hosting the matches. Local opposition activists also typically seek to exploit heightened international media attention during the tournament to embarrass their Government and force concessions that politicians would otherwise be less willing to grant.

Russia has endured over four years of economic crisis and falling living standards, and so such frustrations will be especially prevalent during this World Cup, which has cost Moscow over USD 11 billion. Opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, Aleksey Navalny, will also want to demonstrate his relevance after being sidelined in the March presidential election, which he was barred from contesting but failed to disrupt. He may therefore seek to highlight links between Putin’s allies and lucrative World Cup construction contracts, and then call for major protests ahead of or during the tournament.

However, the Kremlin will not tolerate any opposition activity during the matches, and has brought in Cossack paramilitary units to disrupt any protests. This will limit the risk of widespread disruption, though any Navalny-linked rallies will likely result in violent but isolated clashes with the security forces.

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