Assumptions

Thank you for subscribing to The Crucible? newsletter, which goes out to leaders like you every other week and always offers a thought on something I’ve learned from clients, interviews, or an idea that seems worth sharing.

?~~~~~

Assumptions

‘What would I eliminate if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence,’ says Daniel Kahneman, His derivative quote is even more elegant: “We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.”

If I could eliminate one thing with a magic wand that would improve leader effectiveness and team function it would be assumptions.

Assumptions are what keep us from having aligned expectations, which is most often described as problems with communication.

We assume people understand what we expect. We assume people know where they stand with us. We assume people understand how their behavior affects others. We assume projects will get done on time and under budget. We assume next year will be better than the last. We assume the competition doesn’t know as much as we do, and doesn’t work as hard. We assume that in three weeks, we will be caught up, and things will magically slow down. Alas, there is no magic wand.

I call the problem assumptions. The Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman describes its root as overconfidence. I think it’s exacerbated by stress, anxiety and overwork. Cal Newport wrote an article recently, Why Do We Work Too Much? In it, he describes “Parkinson’s Law,” which is the observation that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” He goes on to say that we leaders need to “reduce the degree to which workloads are purely self-regulated.”

In other words, we can’t just be leaders of behaviors, and mandate that we eliminate assumptions, or simply say no to things. We need leaders who understand how to intentionally design an environment where people are fulfilled, elevated, and teams flourish.

Kahneman describes principles of decision hygiene that can help leaders with their design challenges to reduce assumptions and overconfidence:

1. The goal of judgment is accuracy, not individual expression. Are there places where you can replace human judgment with rules or processes or systems?
2. Resist premature intuition. Can you back-up your intuition so it’s informed, disciplined, and delayed?
3. Gather perspectives from multiple sources. Can you eliminate assumptions and make better decisions by aggregating multiple perspectives and recommendations??

Assumptions. We make them because we have a lifetime of experiences, and they can often speed up decision making. In a complex world, we need to slow down to speed up. Consider tracking all the assumptions you make in the next meeting, and humbly ask yourself,

“What is the best way to eliminate those assumptions so that I have more unbiased confidence in my judgment?”

~~~~~

What’s coming up…

On September 29th, the Brave At Work airs on The Leadership Podcast.

Jim Detert is the author of Choosing Courage: The Everyday Guide to Being Brave at Work - a research-based guide for standing up and speaking out skillfully at work. Have you ever wanted to disagree with your boss? Speak up about your company's lack of diversity or unequal pay practices? Make a tough decision you knew would be unpopular?

In this episode, Jim discusses the moral imperative and research-based tactics to help you become more competently courageous at work. Doing for courage what Angela Duckworth has done for grit and Brene Brown for vulnerability, Jim explains that courage isn't a character trait that only a few possess; it's a virtue developed through practice.

My gift to you dear reader…

Lessons from The Crucible?: Leading through Adversity

In the course of 11 videos (about 30 minutes total), I cover 3 Leadership Strategies -?Direction, Pace & Tone, and how they are key to developing a High-Performance Team. This course is all about how leaders can be more effective at engaging the?head, heart?and?hands. The course was shot entirely on location in Moab with 17 participants this past May.

For the first 200 people who?enroll, you can use the coupon code?CRUCIBLE, and get the course completely?FREE! At the end of the course, there is another coupon code to get 50% off?all my other courses in Teachable!

What I’ve been reading…

Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know

It’s about reconsidering your assumptions. And speaking of Daniel Kahneman, here is what he said about this book: "Brilliant... guaranteed to make you rethink your opinions and your most important decisions."

~~~~~

Jan Rutherford is an executive coach and keynote speaker. An author, ?former Green Beret, and founder of?Self-Reliant Leadership??- he also leads Crucible? wilderness expeditions with executives and veterans.

?