Assume it’s Going to be Tough

As difficult a year as 2020 was, there were many businesses for which it was their best year ever (and I am not just talking about hitherto unheard-of diagnostic centers that are now household names ??). Across various sectors there were those who, somehow or another, got 2020 to work for them. From companies whose business models had in-built resilience (e.g. diversification of income streams) to niche players who suddenly became mainstream, and those who successfully pivoted.

But for so many people, myself included, we were like deer caught in the headlights. In one way or the other we froze with shock, hoping that COVID would beat a hasty retreat from whence it came. We held our breaths and waited, and waited, and.....

For those of us in Nigeria, just as we thought the COVID numbers were down to a manageable level, we had the fallout of the abrupt end to the #Endsars protests to contend with. That… is a story for another day. Suffice to say, it hit hard - at personal, corporate and national levels.

So, we held our breaths again, willing 2020 to come to a speedy end. Enough already! Death to 2020! we thought, quietly or loudly. Because come 1st January 2021 everything was going to be okay, right?! Wrong? Even my children could not comprehend the logic behind why us adults kept speaking as if simply altering the last digit of a date from one day to the next would miraculously change everything else about the world we lived in.

Well, 2021 quickly showed us that, as the "immediate younger sibling" of 2021 (I have avoided using a specific gender lest something is read into it ??), "it didn’t come to play".

Within the first week of the new year, we had the announcement of a third lockdown in the UK, the US insurrection that left the world gobsmacked, and a rapid rise of daily new COVID cases in Nigeria.

Here’s the thing, aside from the COVID effect, when you take a close look at the political, economic, social and technological landscapes of Nigeria (and a lot of the world), 2021 is likely to be another tough year. But here’s how we should look at things - when the going gets tough, the tough get going.

The best thing any business person can do for themselves and all their key stakeholders (employees, shareholders, family members, etc.) is to take a long, hard and honest view of their sector and form a pragmatic perspective of the outlook. That has got to be the most legitimate way of business planning, especially now.

My team and I had a few sessions over the last couple of weeks forming our own view on what we expect "our world" to look like in 2021. We started with looking at global trends and what that meant for our local context. Then we went on to consider the Nigeria-specific trends and finally, brainstorm on the implications of the combination for government, businesses and households. Armed with this shared perspective, we are firming up our 2021 plans.

“But there is so much uncertainty”, I hear you say. Form your best view anyway! Better to plan based on your well-thought-out assessment of the expected reality than upon a hope and prayer alone. As much as I am a firm believer in the grace and favour of God, that in itself is not a strategy but a solid platform and/or a facilitator ????. I would also recommend running a few scenarios so you can plan for potential upsides and downsides as best as you can.

Whatever you do, do not stay frozen! The rest of the world is moving forward, no matter how shakily or unpredictably.

All the very best!

Postscript

In addition to our own in-house analysis, we also have the perspectives of a few other experts. Please do not hesitate to get in touch if you’d like to get our overall take.

Also, in the early days of the pandemic I posted an article on my blogsite www.justasiam.ng on how to navigate times of uncertainity - both from a personal and business standpoint - that you may find useful.