Assessment Of Potential Risks In 2025. Also: Key Priorities For Improving Global Air Travel Accessibility

Welcome back! This week we celebrate ICAO's 80th anniversary, review October data for air cargo and passenger markets, cut a ribbon in the UAE, and talk in-depth about risk. Also, take a few minutes to read an interesting and extensive interview with IATA's Director General, Willie Walsh, from Wings of Change Europe. And finally, IATA's 2024 Global Media Day is taking place in Geneva, Switzerland, on 10 December. Follow the hashtag #IATAGMD for updates on a myriad of topics on Tuesday and throughout the week. Let's get to it.

Solid Growth In Passenger Demand Continued In October

New data for October 2024 global air passenger markets show continuing strong annual growth in demand.

• Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 7.1% compared to October 2023. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), was up 6.1% year-on-year. The October load factor was 83.9% (+0.8ppt compared to October 2023).
• International demand rose 9.5% compared to October 2023. Capacity was up 8.6% year-on-year and the load factor rose to 83.5% (+0.6ppt compared to October 2023).
• Domestic demand rose 3.5% compared to October 2023. Capacity was up 2.0% year-on-year and the load factor was 84.5% (+1.2ppt compared to October 2023).

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General:

“Continued strong and stable demand is good news, but just as important is the steady improvement in load factors. It shows what a great job the industry is doing in flying people more efficiently."

Read more about October passenger numbers:

• Full Air Passenger Market Analysis: October 2024
• Solid Growth In Passenger Demand Continued In October (press release)

Air Cargo Demand Up 9.8% In October 2024 - 15th Month Of Consecutive Growth

Meanwhile, data for October 2024 global air cargo markets revealed the following highlights:

• Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 9.8% compared to October 2023 levels (10.3% for international operations) for a 15th consecutive month of growth.
• Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 5.9% compared to October 2023 (7.2% for international operations). This was largely driven by an 8.5% increase in international belly capacity. Dedicated freighter capacity increased by 5.6%, the seventh consecutive month of growth with volumes nearing 2021 peak levels.

International routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for the fifth consecutive month with a 10.3% year-on-year increase in October. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.

Read more about October cargo numbers:

• Full Air Cargo Market Analysis: October 2024
• Air Cargo Demand Up 9.8% In October 2024 (press release)

An Assessment Of Risks In 2025: Heightened Policy Uncertainty

As 2025 is approaching fast, we assess the risks to the global economy that we are likely to face in the new year.

Our assessment is purely qualitative, and perception based. It is not meant to be exhaustive nor in any way dogmatic. Our purpose is to scan the landscape, promote awareness, and stimulate conversations.

The matrix below orders potential risks with respect to their likelihood of occurrence on the horizontal axis, and the size of the negative impact one could expect on the global economy if the risk were to materialize on the vertical axis.

Many of the potential risks in our assessment are heavily impacted by the presidential election result in the US, the policy instability that can be expected of the incoming Trump administration, and its reverberations across the global economy.

Read the full briefing on risks in 2025.

News In Brief

? Global aviation industry delivers joint declaration to ICAO on 80th anniversary of the Chicago Convention

? Airlines. Magazine: Chicago Convention stands the test of time

? Guidelines: Crisis communications and reputation management post-COVID

? IATA expands presence in United Arab Emirates

? Interview with Willie Walsh at Wings of Change Europe

? IATA disappointed with decision to pursue compensation scheme in the US

? Chart of the week: Emerging economies generate most growth in traffic

? Video of the week: Celebrating International Civil Aviation Day

$1.7 Billion In Airline Funds Blocked By Governments

IATA reported that $1.7 billion in airline funds are blocked from repatriation by governments as of the end of October 2024. This is a small improvement compared to the $1.8 billion reported at the end of April.

"Governments must remove all barriers for airlines to repatriate their revenues from ticket sales and other activities in accordance with international agreements and treaty obligations,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“No country wants to lose aviation connectivity, which drives economic prosperity. But if airlines cannot repatriate their revenues, they cannot be expected to provide a service. Economies will suffer if connectivity collapses. So, it is in everyone’s interest, including governments, to ensure that airlines can repatriate their funds smoothly,” said Walsh.

Nine countries account for 83% of the airline industry’s blocked funds, amounting to $1.43 billion.

Learn more about blocked airline funds.

International Community Aligns on Air Travel Accessibility Priorities

Aviation stakeholders and disability advocates established key priorities for improving global air travel accessibility at a landmark joint symposium held by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Airports Council International (ACI), and the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The two-day event, which drew 237 participants from governments, industry, and civil society organizations, provided critical input for ICAO's upcoming comprehensive strategy and work programme on aviation accessibility.

Learn more about the symposium.

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