Assessment: Latest Attacks in Israel are for Preempting Israel-Saudi Accord and a"Test Mission" which could be a Prelude to Next Intifada

(Plan to Attack Israel via Paragliding was already known to authorities at least 9 years ago. What happened yesterday was not technically a "surprise attack"- but a 'preknown' attack that was not seriously acted upon nor robustly prepared for much earlier. See: Links of sources below)

Hamas' surprise attacks on Southern Israel today, Saturday October 7, a day after the anniversary of the surprise attack on Israel in 1973 by Arab coalition forces during the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur- have put the region in turmoil once again. However, it is essential to delve deeper into the motives behind these attacks. This article seeks to analyze the reasons behind Hamas' aggression, highlighting two main factors: opposition to the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a "Test Mission" to assess Israel's defensive capabilities as a likely prelude for planning a major attack.

1. Opposing the normalization of ties:?

Hamas, operating under the influence of Tehran, aims to disrupt the announced normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh's openness to this idea, through Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in September 2022, posed a significant threat to Iran's regional influence. Tehran has consistently opposed any increase in Israel's diplomatic support and seeks to maintain its position as a leading force against the Israeli state. Iranian President Ebrahim clearly amplified Tehran's position to US media last September: "We oppose relations between the Zionist regime and the countries in the region." Iran sees the forthcoming agreement as a geostrategic threat to its Palestinian position, not wanting the initiative move the pendulum towards Israel's favor.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman announced earlier this year that Israel-Saudi normalization of ties could be in the offing in exchange of concessions for Palestinians, Washington's security guarantee, and a nuclear program. The future King indicated Riyadh's interest to acquire a nuclear weapon if "Iran does it first", as per his interview with Fox.

In 14th September 2019, US, Saudi, and UN investigators were convinced that Iran was behind the surprise attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities despite the Houthi rebels in Yemen claiming responsibility, a charge denied by Tehran. This was likely a "Test Mission" sponsored by the latter through a proxy to assess and measure the strengths-and weaknesses of Saudi defense capability under US cover. Since then, the power competition between the regional rivals has been heating up- albeit, discreetly (Iran sees itself as a leading Shiite Muslim Power while Saudi Arabia- being a leading Sunni Muslim Power- sees itself as the only true custodian of Islam).

The pattern is becoming clear that with Iran's active geopolitical interventionist policy in the region to proactively advance and protect its strategic interests using unconventional ways like launching drone attacks through the deployment of proxies (Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.) , poses a significant threat to her neighbors, especially Israel- and even beyond. In fact, the threat expands to Eurasia with Tehran's support of Russia which includes the long-term commitment of supplying Iranian drones.

In addition, UAE and Israel reached a historic Israel–United Arab Emirates peace agreement towards normalizing ties in 13th August 2020, mediated by then President Trump as part of the "Abraham Accords".

Yet 2 years later, in 17th January 2022, at around 10:00 am, A Houthi military spokesman claimed that the group (well-known as Iran's proxy militia) had fired multiple drones and 5 ballistic missiles in the attack on an oil refinery in Abu Dhabi, damaging at least 3 oil refueling vehicles in Musaffah.

Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Coincidence?

This surprise attack and its long-term ramifications could potentially set back the Israel-Saudi Accord back to square one.

2. Utilizing historical significance to execute and maximize the impact of a "Terror Test Mission" that could serve as a prelude to the Next Intifada.

Hamas could have chosen October 6, a significant day in Israeli history when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel in 1973 (known as the Yom Kippur War), to launch their surprise attacks. This is a plausible scenario that suggests the likelihood of Iran ordering-or at the minimum- approving the "Test Mission" in order to evaluate Israel's defensive capabilities against multiple, overwhelming simultaneous, coordinated, swarming attacks. Planning for a massive terror attack of this nature certainly requires serious tactical calculations, the participation of many, complex logistics, and numerous rehearsals to build desired critical capabilities. In short, this terror project has been years in the making. Apparently, this long term project has been scheduled and aligned with the major strategic objectives along the way (e.g. Disrupting impending Israel-Saudi Accord, avenging previous losses, amplify the Palestinian Cause which could be intended to fuel the "Next Intifada").

Israel had already had advanced intel about what was coming. In fact, Times of Israel reported as early as 2014:

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"A highly trained Hamas operative captured by the IDF during the ongoing military campaign?in the Gaza Strip told investigators that he had prepared to carry out a terror attack against Israeli civilians using a paraglider, the Shin Bet security service said?Wednesday."

"The Hamas detainee, who was recruited to the Islamist terror group in 2007 and joined one of the group’s special units in 2010, had taken part in a weeklong military-style exercise in Malaysia, along with 10?other members of the group, the Shin Bet said in a statement. During the exercise, which included paragliding training, the Hamas squad focused on perfecting raids from the air."

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It's clear that there were serious negligence on the part of Israel national defense establishments. Having in possession of a good amount of information regarding Hamas' plan to attack Israel via paragliding 9 years or more earlier, a more robust aerial access denial could have been set up in conjunction with the Iron Dome, sea and land border defense forces.

I'm really wondering why this had slipped through the cracks.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/captured-hamas-operative-reveals-paragliding-attack-plan/

https://www.israelhayom.co.il/news/article/13803556

https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/hamas/hamas-terror-cell-received-advanced-training-in-malaysia/

By replicating some tactical circumstances surrounding the Yom Kippur War, Hamas may have aimed to gauge Israel's readiness to handle such complicated attacks as a prelude to launching much bigger attacks in the future, as a way also to prepare Hamas, encourage mujahideens and other proxy terror groups around the world to join the fight or Next Intifada vs Israel.

Dark clouds are hovering over Israel and the entire region with this brazen move. The quicker Israel can contain this, the better. The fluidity of this situation could degenerate into something irreversible- clearly, an existential threat to Israel.

3. Netanyahu's stern warnings vs Iran:?

Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and his government have consistently pledged to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, even if it means acting unilaterally. Such steadfast declarations may have compelled Tehran to endorse the surprise attacks as a response, testing Israel's commitment and resolve towards deterring Iran's nuclear ambitions.

4. Exploiting internal divisions:?

The timing of the attacks coincided with a series of large public protests in Israel, causing internal divisions among the Jewish population, including active serving officers and reservist members of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Hamas likely perceived this period of unrest as a perfect opportunity to launch terror attacks when Israel's unity was being tested. Divided attention and resources due to internal protests may have weakened Israel's security posture and emboldened Hamas.

Conclusion:?

Hamas' recent surprise attacks in Southern Israel were driven by both political motives, revenge, and the desire to assess Israel's defensive capabilities. Strong opposition to Israel-Saudi Arabia normalized ties may have been a factor in approving and sponsoring the move by Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu's constant warnings to Tehran against developing or acquiring a nuclear bomb, and indicated Israel's readiness to do something about it (even without the direct support of disapproving allies) could also be part of the list of motives. Internal divisions within Israel have definitely added to the complication. By understanding the complex web of influences and motivations behind these attacks, we can gain valuable insights into the ongoing conflicts and work towards promoting peace and stability in the region.