Assessing R&D Complexity of Technology Systems: Intricacy vs. Experience Plots

Assessment and communication of technical readiness of complex technologies is challenging.? ?This is because complex technologies are typically an integration of multiple subsystems, each of which may be at a different level of readiness.?

Shown below is a method I find useful for assessing and communicating the likely difficulty (i.e., time, cost, & risk) to develop complex technologies.? The major subsystems are plotted on a graph of intricacy versus experience.? “Intricacy” reflects manufacturing challenge of a specific subsystem. ?Considerations include for example: number of moving parts, degree of interaction between of subcomponents, and tightness of tolerances required in construction.? “Experience” reflects familiarity with the subsystem.? Considerations include: amount of prior use of the subsystem, similarity of the planned design with previously used subsystems, and similarity of the planned operating conditions with prior applications.

A useful workflow is to first assess each subsystem with respect to intricacy and experience in qualitatively manner (e.g., high-medium-low).? Then second, adjust the assessments (i.e., shift on the plot) by pairwise comparing subsystems to ensure they are placed appropriately with respect to both intricacy and experience.? Lastly and optionally, a third dimension of “testability” may be assessed for each subsystem.? ?Testability is the degree to which a subsystem’s performance and reliability can be accurately tested at conditions similar to those of the ultimate application and do so within acceptable cost and schedule.? Considerations include similarity of the test equipment to the that of the ultimate application in terms of design, scale, and operating conditions. The dimension may be communicated by coloring the subsystem labels.

R&D difficulties most commonly are traceable to subsystems which are intricate but have a small experience base (i.e., towards the upper left corner of the plot).?? Difficulties will be even more so for subsystems having low testability.? Equipment used in small-scale pilots is frequently significantly different in physical design than that planned for full-scale operations despite utilizing the same physical principles of operation.? Hence, operational learnings, maintenance issues, and equipment failure modes may not translate well to the full-size equipment.??

What has been your experience in trying to assess and communicate the technical readiness of systems of technologies?? Have you found other dimensions useful for providing a clear picture of risks and needs to decision-makers?

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