Assessing the Ramifications of Hezbollah's Imminent Missile Attacks Supporting Hamas vs Israel, the US, and Regional Geopolitics
Introduction:
This article dives into the assessment of a potential scenarios in which Hezbollah, with the support and blessing of Iran, launches a barrage of missile attacks to Israel to provide assistance to Hamas. In this scenario, this article explores the use of Iranian-supported drones targeting Israel and potentially posing a threat to US aircraft carriers and vessels. Furthermore, it analyzes Tehran's geopolitical interests, including undermining Saudi Arabia's relationship with Israel and, supporting Hamas, and weakening Israel through multifront wars. Lastly, it examines the possibility of Iran vigorously rallying Middle Eastern countries and the global community for an immediate diplomatic solution (albeit, unfavorable to Israel) the moment the Hamas "Operation Al Aqsa Flood" didn't go as planned. Essentially, Tehran wants to have its big geopolitical footprint on what's going on in the region- projecting power both in overt and covert ways- undermining Israel and adversaries.
1. Hezbollah's Imminent Missile Attacks to Israel to escalate tension to serve Iranian interest:
Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shi'a political and paramilitary organization, has long been supported by Iran and established itself as a significant force in the region. With its extensive missile arsenal (some of them precision-guided), it possesses the capability to target Israeli cities and infrastructure, potentially causing significant damage. The collaboration between Hezbollah on the North and Hamas on the South at this point could further intensify their shared threats against Israel- which the latter may find overwhelming. That's why, the reassuring strategic presence of US military in that region is key to prevent rogue state actors and their proxies to exploit the situation.
As the tension in Gaza runs high with the 25th-day of aerial bombardments launched by Israel (purportedly to further 'soften the ground') flattening high-rise buildings and destroying more network of structures used by Hamas and partial ground incursion, dramatically increasing casualties on both sides (especially, civilians)- Hamas political operators have been quick on capitalizing this bad publicity for Israel in the media to advance its cause, some of which echo the talking points of Tehran. As events unfold in Gaza, the world is becoming more affected and agitated by what they see in the mainstream media and fake news; that's why, PM Bibi Netanyahu and Israel are taking flak everyday for the horrific consequences happening on the Palestinian side (although many of which were unintended, deliberately set up by Hamas, using civilians as human shields).
The prospect of Hamas losing ground or facing obliteration by Israel would certainly ring alarm bells in Lebanon, Iran, and other allies. This will be is a big spoiler event for a multi-year, expensive terror project- meticulously planned, approved and funded by big leaders behind-the-scenes (a defeat that would be hard for them to accept). Hence, the possibility of reinforcing Hamas in some ways is now more likely.
Considering the complexity of the conflict and the geopolitical risks for Iran if it openly launches attacks on Israel and on US vessels, Tehran could opt to double down on the use of its proxies (albeit, more creatively) to create an atmosphere of overall instability in the region that favors its agenda- and pleases the financiers. A peaceful Middle East is bad news for Iran whose only way to geopolitical relevance is conflict in the region- not strong economy, not industry, and certainly not technological ingenuity.
On Supporting Hamas
The Palestinian cause has been a unifying issue for Muslims around the world due to the historical significance of Palestine in their Islamic faith and the strong collective aspiration for it to be liberated from Israeli occupation. That's why, despite the barbaric and gruesome conduct of the surprise attack in 7th October, there has been a loud support for Hamas globally. However, the brutal attack last October 7 puts the so-called Palestinian cause last, for it primarily serves to preempt the announced normalization deal with Saudi Arabia and "test the waters" to gauge how robust the defense and response of Israel that will give them information to launch a much bigger attack in the future- a valuable intel for Iran. Israel's massive response and objective to eliminate Hamas is justified.
Bluff and Optics
Just like in the past, Hezbollah and Iran's penchant for bluffing in support of Hamas and Palestine is well-known: usually intended to intimidate Israel not to attack/counterattack, promise of unleashing destruction, and project a powerful image of being strong leaders, feared by Israel, guardians of Palestine, and "brother's keeper". Being in close proximity to Israel, the nearest to a "brother-in-need" Hamas, it behooves them to act and be the loudest voice- especially so that their Muslim brethren, and adversary US are watching.
However, let's remember that Hamas is getting regular funding from Iran to the tune of 100 Million USD every year, this does not include from other terror benefactors. It is one of the top (1-5) richest terrorist organizations in the world with at least 1 Billion USD in 2014 and 700 Million USD in 2018 (according to Forbes List), a hefty sum of money that-sadly- might not have been spent on the well-being of Palestinians, but mostly on terror projects like the one conducted recently- October 7.
Clearly, there's good money to be had in terrorizing Israel. Keeping Israel terrorized opens the tap of generous cashflow from donors. As we all know, usually there needs to be an accomplishment report for accountability to encourage more giving. No reports, no money. Hamas and other proxies need a consistent record, big achievements vs Israel to report for the continuation of their terror enterprise- that in turn, supports the continued relevance of their sponsor Iran as a regional geopolitical power in the Middle East. A quite, peaceful, stable Middle East, successful Israel, is an existential threat for Tehran.
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Hezbollah is more powerful today than when it fought Israel in July 2006. The party’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah even boasts of more than 100K fighters under his command in a speech delivered to Lebanese audience.
Reports published by several Israeli and US media and research centers, confirmed that Hezbollah may have more than 2,000 drones capable of carrying out various missions, including transporting explosive materials. It could, for example, send a large swarm of drones at the same time to a single target to confuse Israel’s air defense mechanisms.
Experts warned against Hezbollah’s ability to breach the famous Iron Dome air defense system. It's common knowledge that Hezbollah’s arsenal is many times bigger than that of Hamas- posing great danger anywhere in Israel. Likewise, Hezbollah has advanced Russian weapons such as SA-22 air defense systems.
2. Iranian-Supplied Drones:
Iran's advancement in drone technology has raised concerns about its potential use for military purposes, including by its proxies. If Iran were to provide drones to Hezbollah or Hamas, it could pose significant challenges for Israel's defense systems. With the ability to target not only Israeli civilians but also US aircraft carriers and vessels in the region, the situation becomes even more complex.
3. Tehran's Geopolitical Interests:
Iran's geopolitical interests play a crucial role in this assessment. By supporting proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, Tehran aims to increase its influence in the region. Undermining Saudi Arabia's warming relations with Israel serves multiple purposes: weakening the Saudi-Israeli alliance, preventing the normalization of relations with Arab countries, and consolidating Iran's position as a regional power.
4. Weakening Israel through Multifront Wars:
Hezbollah's potential missile attacks, coupled with Hamas' activities, can result in a multifront war for Israel. Iran sees weakening Israel as a strategic advantage, reducing its capability to pose a threat to Iran's regional interests. Creating multiple battlefronts for Israel could stretch its military resources and potentially impact its ability to respond effectively.
5. Diplomatic Implications:
Tehran's actions, should the scenario escalate, could prompt a response from the international community and Middle Eastern countries. Iran has historically sought diplomatic solutions through leveraging its regional influence and garnering international support against Israeli actions. In this scenario, Iran may use the situation to rally the Middle East and push for a diplomatic resolution that may not be in Israel's favor.
It is high time that Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab countries lead the efforts and narrative in Palestine to render Iran less relevant.
While this scenario presents a potential assessment of Hezbollah launching missile attacks in support of Hamas, with Iran's blessing, it is important to note that things could deescalate with active diplomatic efforts by Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab leaders for a ceasefire and urgent settlement for hostage release to prisoners swap. Understanding the complexities and motivations behind what's happening is crucial for the international community.
Again, there is a good reason to believe that more surprise attacks from Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies like Houthi could come at anytime using more advance drones and missiles. Heightened alertness is recommended.