Assessing Erik ten Hag's Tenure at Manchester United: Balancing Patience and INEOS's Expectations as Time Ticks Away

Last night's 3-1 defeat in the Manchester Derby marked Manchester United's 11th loss of the season, burdening the club with the realization that they are trailing far behind a vastly superior Manchester City. From the stands, Sir David Brailsford observed the unfolding events and is expected to play a crucial role in what could be one of the most significant rebuilds in Manchester United's history. Over a decade since its dominance, the club finds itself in a challenging period, having gone through six managers, spent approximately 1.2 billion, experienced changes in leadership with three different CEOs, lacked a sporting director, and faced a dire recruitment strategy. INEOS is well aware of the monumental task that lies ahead.

As the game against Manchester City progressed and substitutions were made in the second half, the evident gap between the Manchester clubs hindered Manchester United. The attacking prowess and dominance displayed by City were overwhelming for United to handle. Despite the challenging circumstances, Erik Ten Hag expressed his satisfaction with the team's performance in his post-game statement, asserting that United is not far off from Manchester City, contrary to the perceived dominating performance. Currently, Manchester United occupies the 6th position, trailing by 11 points for a top-four spot after 27 games. The question arises: Can Erik Ten Hag genuinely claim to be the right person to lead this club, or is it time for a fresh start for Manchester United? The decision may already be known to Sir Jim Ratcliffe and INEOS, even with around ten games remaining and an FA Cup campaign, including an upcoming quarter-final against Liverpool at Old Trafford.

The sentiment among the majority of Manchester United fans is that Erik Ten Hag has made decisions, whether tactical or in recruitment, that have worked against him throughout the year. Mason Mount, Erik Ten Hag's primary target in the summer, has yet to meet expectations. Despite injuries, even when Mason was fit during the initial part of the season, it was still being determined where Erik envisioned him within the system. This article aims to provide a comprehensive analysis and articulate my perspective on Erik's performance, along with considerations for ideal successors if INEOS decides to part ways with him.

Recruitment Strategy

Ironically, I've labelled this section as a "recruitment strategy" when there isn't one in place. The last decade has witnessed a series of shocking signings that have not panned out. Dedelve into the past ten years could form the basis of an entire article, underscoring the clear failures in player acquisitions. Notably, this criticism is directed at something other than the managers or players but rather at the absence of a coherent philosophy and structure guiding the club's style of play and managerial appointments. This deficiency has made it exceptionally challenging to recruit players tailored to the needs of specific managers and systems.

While I won't delve extensively into the past decade's recruitment woes, as it's apparent to most where the issues lie in that department, a glaring problem persists—the absence of a sporting director, why such a crucial role has been left vacant for the past ten years remains perplexing. Even John Murtough seems uncertain about the situation. The problem goes beyond surface-level discussions about recruitment; it strikes at the core of the club's operations. The appointment of incoming CEO Omar Berrada is a step in the right direction. However, the pending agreement with Dan Ashworth, currently on gardening leave from Newcastle, adds another layer of complexity, raising questions about whether his departure will come without significant compensation.

Until these deals are finalized, INEOS must address two critical aspects. First, they need to determine the style of football Manchester United aims to embody over the next decade, shaping their recruitment strategy accordingly to ensure players are suited to that vision. Second, they must clarify the extent of the manager's influence in this process, whether it be Erik Ten Hag or a potential successor. These foundational elements must be established before the success of Manchester United's recruitment efforts will be determined.

Style of football

When Moyes took over as Ferguson's successor in 2013, there were expectations of a direct approach. Louis Van Gaal shifted the focus to controlled possession, emphasizing dominance in ball possession with a structured format both with and without the ball. The tenures of Jose and Ole saw an evolution into counter-attacking football with a defensive block. Ralf Ragnick's arrival promised a pressing model, but it was the opposite. Under Erik Ten Hag, there has been a blend of various approaches.

So, what defines Erik Ten Hag's style of football? With an Ajax background, many expected a possession-based focus similar to Pep Guardiola's style at Manchester City or Roberto De Zerbi's approach at Brighton. Surprisingly, it has been quite different. While not relying heavily on statistics, they can offer some context. Examining numbers from this season, it's crucial to consider the unprecedented number of injuries Ten Hag has faced.

Even in his first season, despite moments of brilliance, results often seemed to mask underlying issues. Winning games relied more on individual moments of class than consistent 90-minute team performances. Before delving into reasons, it's crucial to acknowledge the challenges posed by the remarkably high number of injuries Ten Hag has navigated. In an overall assessment, Ten Hag's team achieved a 52% win rate, slightly higher at home (54%) than away (50%). The xG (expected goals) per match is 1.53, with a slight increase at home (1.70) and a decrease away (1.36). Conceding an average of 1.44 goals per match, slightly more at home (1.54) and less away (1.36). Possession averages 51%, slightly higher at home (54%) and lower away (48%). Notably, a 26% clean sheet rate contrasts with a 26% failed-to-score rate. Shot statistics reveal an average of 11.12 shots taken per match, with a conversion rate of 12%. They were committing 10.31 fouls per match and facing 9.35 fouls against. The team won 3 penalties and conceded three penalties in 27 games.

Goal kicks averaged 8.08 per match, consistent throw-ins at 17.69, and free-kicks averaged 10.26. Putting these together makes it challenging to understand Erik's expectations from his team. Another critical analysis involves the average positions covered by Manchester United compared to Manchester City, as highlighted by Sky Sports. Erik must showcase a clear identity in the season's final weeks to demonstrate his suitability for the INEOS project. Jamie Carragher's analysis after the Fulham loss pointed out significant issues in the gaps between United's midfield and backline, highlighting a need for Erik to address these fundamental issues in the coming weeks to have any chance of retaining his position as Manchester United's manager next season and beyond in this project.

INEOS strategy

What will be the INEOS strategy? It's challenging to pinpoint this early in their regime, but there are already signs that they mean business. In his initial interviews with various outlets, Sir Jim Ratcliffe stated that his sole intention is to elevate Manchester United to the pinnacle of English and world football, aiming to dethrone City and Liverpool. However, achieving this goal seems formidable unless City or Liverpool's dynamics shift significantly. United, instead, should focus on their progress. They remain years behind Manchester City, and Ralf Rangnick's 2022 comment about "open-heart surgery" is yet to be fully implemented. The reality is that regardless of the manager or players, there are deep-rooted issues in the club's culture, exacerbated by poor decisions at the top concerning player and staff recruitment. Addressing these concerns must be a top priority.?

Possible Successors

If INEOS were to change in the summer, which appears likely given the current circumstances and Manchester United's current position in the season, I would outline five potential targets. Please note that these targets are not listed in any particular order.

Hansi Flick:?The former Germany and Bayern Munich manager, Hansi Flick, is a name that is being tossed around for potential vacancies at Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the upcoming summer. Flick boasts one of the highest win rates in football history, securing victories in 83% of his games, and played a pivotal role in helping Bayern maintain an average of 3.0 goals per game across all competitions. In October 2020, Flick received Europe's Coach of the Year, a prestigious award recognizing the best coach in major European football leagues. His successful tenure at Bayern Munich, including a Champions League title, showcased his prowess. Initially setting up his teams in a 4-2-3-1 formation with an emphasis on attacking and high pressing, Flick's style aligns with Manchester United's forward-looking vision. With a commanding presence and an impressive track record, Flick, at 59 years of age, represents a managerial figure with the right qualities for Manchester United's aspirations.

Rúben Amorim: While not as globally recognized, Rúben Amorim is highly esteemed in Portugal and often referred to as the new Jose Mourinho by Portuguese fans, owing to his fiery character and management style. Similar to Hansi, Amorim's teams showcase progressive attacking play and flexibility. Sporting Lisbon's coach employs a strict 3-4-3 formation, emphasizing high possession and intense pressing to regain the ball in advanced areas. Amorim has demonstrated his commitment to integrating young talent into the first team, including players like Goncalo Inacio, Matheus Nunes, Nuno Mendes, and Ousmane Diomande. The 39-year-old's coaching credentials are underscored by Sporting's ClubElo rating, which measures team strength based on results weighted by the quality of opposition faced. After a challenging start, Amorim guided Sporting to their first league title in 19 years during the 2021-22 season, showcasing a controlled, possession-dominant style of play.

Roberto De Zerbi:?Another name the Media echoes is Brighton Manager Roberto De Zerbi. However, for Manchester United fans, it is not the most popular. Last season saw Brighton reach a record finish, reaching the Europa League. However, this campaign, Brighton has leaked goals from the opposition and defensively looks very open. In a comprehensive evaluation of recent performance statistics, the team's overall win rate stands at 37%, with home matches reflecting a higher success rate of 46%, while away games show a more challenging 29%. Draw outcomes occur 33% of the time overall, with a notable increase to 46% at home and a decrease to 21% away. Losses are distributed at 30% overall, 8% at home, and 50% away. The expected goals (xG) per match averages 1.72, climbing to 1.93 at home and dropping to 1.52 out.

Conversely, xG against per match stands at 1.29 overall, 1.14 at home, and 1.42 away. Averaging 3.44 goals per match overall, 3.31 at home, and 3.57 away highlights an entertaining style of play. Notably, possession averages 62% overall, 64% at home, and 61% away, showcasing a dominant ball-holding strategy. Additional metrics, including shots taken, conversion rates, fouls committed, penalties won and conceded, goal kicks, throw-ins, and free-kicks, provide a comprehensive snapshot of the team's current performance dynamics. You can understand the argument for attacking football and a clear philosophy. However, with no experience managing the biggest clubs in the world, this would not be a good move for both parties.

Simone Inzaghi: I want to throw a name out of that hat with this one. He is an unlikely target as he is seemingly happy at Inter Millian and doing well there, but he is still under contract. However, I wouldn't be disappointed if Manchester United were to target Simone Inzaghi. He has built a reputation for playing a fast and dynamic style of football using the 3-5-2 system at both Lazio and Inter. At just 47 years of age, he is an exciting option. He also recently guided Inter to a Champions League final. If INEOS were to make a change, he should be one of the top targets.?

Thiago Motta: is another name who may be relatively unknown in English football but has huge admiration as Barconna and is flying at Bologna FC, with the team currently sitting in 4th position above the likes of Roma, Napoli, and Lazio. A young and dynamic name in European football with one of the highest goals-per-game ratios in the Seria has created a fantastic base for the future. Usually setting up in a 4-2-3-1, Thiago is one of the names linked with Barcelona and Liverpool. I am interested in INEOS in Thiago, but I also see it as unlikely, given his inexperience in English football.?

My opinion?

As I conclude this article, it's crucial to clarify my position on Erik ten Hag and my perspective on INEOS's potential actions. I staunchly believe, alongside many Manchester United fans, that Erik had an exceptional first season, marked by a trophy, a cup final appearance, and a top-four finish. He succeeded in instilling an exciting style of football reminiscent of his time at Ajax. While the current season has presented challenges, including injuries, it's essential not to use them as an escape from the reality of the situation.

In simple terms, I advocate for giving Erik Ten Hag another season, provided he is supported by a competent football structure, a support system he still needs to improve thus far. However, I wouldn't vehemently oppose it if INEOS opts for a managerial change. As emphasized at the beginning of this piece, the issues at the club run more profound than those of the current manager. INEOS should prioritize addressing these foundational problems, focusing on player recruitment and securing Dan Ashworth's services for the summer to ensure the right personnel are brought in to assist Erik in bringing his Ajax-inspired vision to Manchester United.