The Assassination of Qasem Soleimani: Implications for the Region

Born in 1957, Qasem Soleimani was an Iranian Major General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Commander of the Quds Force till his death on 3rd January 2020. Having played a key role in the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Soleimani succeeded in significantly enhancing Tehran’s influence in the Middle East Region by aiding proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, Houthis in Yemen, Feday-e-Mahaz in Afghanistan and Pakistan both financially and militarily. Along with the support to the proxies, Soleimani provided Iraqi militants with ammunition to counter the US influence in Baghdad from 2003 to 2011 and helped the Syrian President Bashar-al-Assad in the Syrian Civil War in 2012 by sending militia proxies from the Af-Pak region to fight against the United States and its allies. The United States designated Quds Force as a supporter of Terrorism in 2007 and sanctioned Major General Soleimani for the alleged involvement in a plot to kill Saudi Ambassador to Washington in 2011. The rivalry culminated in the assassination of Qasem Soleimani by the US airstrikes while he was leaving the Baghdad International Airport on 3rd January 2020.

Can we then attribute the assassination to Soleimani’s involvement in a proxy war against the United States? Or is the US Maximum Pressure strategy against Iran behind the killing of an Iranian Commander?

On 8th May 2018, the US President Trump withdrew the country from the JCPOA deal signed by P5+1 under the Lausanne Framework in 2015. Under the agreement, Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% and two-third of its gas centrifuges for 13 years in return of the removal sanctions from Iran. Simultaneously, the official recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by the United States in December 2017, the Iranian policy of assisting the Palestinian cause gained further coherence. Other than the direct swell in relations, the support to different factions in countries like Yemen and Syria also subverted the US-Iran relations in which the latter found a common cause with Russia and China.

To suppress the Iranian economy and capacity, the Trump administration had unilaterally reinstated both primary and secondary sanctions on Tehran through the CAATSA policy. Most of the sanctions were focused on regime change in Iran like the coup d’état that steered the overthrow of the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953. The severity of sanctions led to resilient protests in Iran against the regime which further strengthened the hardliners vis-à-vis the moderates in power.

In order to conciliate the domestic audience and demonstrate that the regime could stand up to the oppressors, Tehran had launched attacks directly and via its proxies in the Strait of Hormuz, downing of drones and the much austere 14th September 2019 attack on Saudi’s oil facilities damaging Riyadh’s oil production by 50%. Iran has also in five instances breached the JCPOA deal since the US withdrawal through the enrichment of uranium above the agreed limit. Washington retorted by sending additional troops to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and threatening Iran with dire consequences. The escalation arrived when the US military contractor was killed in a rocket attack in Iraq by Kata’ ib Hezbollah, a militia aided by IRGC and Quds Force, on December 27th, 2019. This one act led to the United States airstrikes on Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (Secretary-General of Kata ‘ib Hezbollah and Deputy Chairman of Popular Mobilization Force), assailing the sovereignty of both Iraq and Iran. In the aftermath of this incident, Iran launched an hour-long attack on American bases in the country. Iraqi parliament passed a law against the US bases in Baghdad, thereby demanding the US troops immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Pentagon responded with further airstrikes including 3 in Syria on Kata’ib Hezbollah bases. The latter retaliated by attacking the US embassy in Baghdad. Not only did these developments affect the United States, but it also has impacted the US allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and U.A.E, destabilizing the already fragile region.

Before the killing of Soleimani, there were major protests happening on the streets of Iran that were able to pressurize the regime to provide significant concessions to the people. However, the attacks have rejuvenated the anti-American fervor, being utilized by the Iranian government to direct the protests towards hostility against the United States. It provided the regime with an opportunity to target Washington as the biggest threat and highlight the crisis as an act of economic warfare against the country. On the other hand, Iran tried readily to influence the political developments in Iraq, initially by supporting the Iraqi cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in his Sadr Movement and now with a staunch backing given to Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

President Trump had in the past threatened to attack Iranian cultural sites that received strong criticism from the Rouhani government. On the other hand, the only issue on which the US and Iran cooperated was fighting the Sunni Terrorist Group, ISIS in Levant. Soleimani’s death will impact the US-coalition’s fight against ISIS which still has 14000 to 18000 active fighters in Iraq and Syria. Amidst the Trump administration’s silence on the recent Israeli annexation plans of West Bank and the Palestinian rejection of Kushner’s peace deal, the US-Iran relations will continue to deteriorate.

Qasem Soleimani’s assassination by the United States was a direct infringement of international law and the sovereignty of Iran. Though countries like China, Germany, France, and Russia are trying to save the deal, Iran will find it increasingly difficult to support the JCPOA agreement for a longer period. It only took one single airstrike and the elimination of a Major General to expose the vulnerability of the Middle East Region and with Esmail Gha’ani succeeding Soleimani as the Commander of the Quds Force, the cooperation may succeed in yielding to the threat perceptions.