#AskElda - September 2024
Eurelectric
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Check out the key developments from September 2024 below.
Electricity generation
September saw a slight increase in renewables share, largely at the expense of a small drop in nuclear power. While a slightly reduced overall demand and a resurgence in wind power contributed to this shift, the impact was tempered by a nearly 5% drop in solar output due to waning daylight hours. Average hourly wind generation rebounded to over 50 GW, after having fallen below 40 GW since April.
Year-on-year, the share of renewables increased by 6%, highlighting the significant progress in the EU's power sector decarbonisation. In September 2024, coal and gas generation declined by a combined 9.3 TWh compared to the same period in 2023. In contrast, wind, solar and hydro power collectively rose by 14.5 TWh, further bolstering the role of renewable energy. Additionally, nuclear power saw a modest increase of 1.5 TWh.
Electricity demand
As the hot summer and holiday season came to an end, electricity demand in September fell by 4.9% compared to August. Year-on-year, September 2024 recorded a 1.9% increase in demand compared to September 2023.
The peak demand in September occurred on the 9th at 11 AM, with renewables contributing 48.5% to the EU's power mix, of which solar PV accounted for 31%. During the peak demand hour in September 2023, renewables made up 41% of the energy mix.
Year to date, 2024 has seen slightly higher electricity demand compared to the same period in 2023, indicating slow demand recovery post-energy price crisis. However, the slowdown in industrial activity continues to persist.
CO2 intensity and prices
CO2 intensity from power generation went down in September compared to August. This was driven by a higher share of renewables, primarily due to increased wind power. However, a few member states experienced an increase in emissions intensity in September compared to August. Estonia and Latvia saw the largest rises, driven by a significant increase in oil shale power in Estonia and gas power in Latvia.
Year to date, this year marks the cleanest power generation on record, with an estimated CO2 intensity of 163 gCO2/kWh.
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CO2 prices followed a downward trend in September, with the monthly average dropping by €5/ton when compared to August. This decline was driven by the sell-off of emission rights amid reduced fossil fuel power generation and lower industrial activity.
Day-ahead electricity prices
The monthly average wholesale electricity price in the EU decreased for the first time in four months, driven by lower demand, increased wind generation and stable nuclear output. The decline in south-eastern Europe contributed to this trend, although prices remain high in the region, averaging around €100/MWh.
The occurrence of negative prices saw a significant reduction in September, with 94 instances reported in at least one bidding zone compared to 215 in August, attributed to a decrease in solar PV share within the power mix. Notably, Italy, Portugal and Greece did not experience any negative electricity prices.
Gas prices declined in September, with the monthly average falling by over €3/MWh due to high wind, ample supply and high storage levels, which reached 94% by the end of the month. However, geopolitical tensions pose a risk of price volatility in the coming days.
Cross-border flows
The EU became a net exporter in September after being a net importer since June. Norway remained the top exporter to the EU, while the UK was the leading importer. Within the EU, France held the top net exporter position, and Italy led as the largest importer.
EU electricity exports to Ukraine, which had been significantly higher in previous months, dropped by 29% in September compared to August. However, year-on-year, September exports were still well above the same period in 2023. Despite this, exported electricity represented less than 2% of the combined demand of Ukraine's EU neighbours.
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Disclaimer: The latest estimates for electricity generation, demand, and CO2 intensity are provided by Eurelectric, based on the most recent hourly data from ENTSO-E and monthly data from Eurostat of the previous year. These figures are subject to slight revisions as actual data becomes available.