Ashmore Research Highlights - December 2022

1.??????Ashmore’s 2023 Emerging Markets Outlook

Emerging Market assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Two out of those three factors are likely, in our view, to turn from headwinds to tailwinds in 2023, while the Ukrainian war remains uncertain.

In our view, the main questions on China’s re-opening of its economy are the timing and impact this will have on the rest of the world. On the other hand, the US economy is very likely to endure a recession in 2023, forcing the Fed to pause its hikes at some time in Q1 2023 and potentially pivot to cuts in H2 2023. While the long-term picture remains challenging due to geopolitical risks and supply constraints, we believe a more constructive scenario for EM economies will allow EM assets to outperform developed market assets over the next years.

Read more in the full outlook here.

2.??????‘EM in 10’ update – December 2022

Ashmore’s Head of Research, Gustavo Medeiros summarises the recently published 2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets, shares his thoughts on what might lie ahead for Emerging Markets as we head into 2023, and discusses why he thinks it may be a ‘year of two halves’.

Watch the full video here.

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3.??????Webinar replay – Ashmore’s 2023 Emerging Markets Outlook

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, discusses the outlook for Emerging Markets in 2023 and answers questions on Ashmore’s recently published white paper.

Watch the full replay here.