Ascending Beyond Limits: Harnessing Knowledge, Experience, and Decision-Making for Success

The following is from Chapter 8, Adaptive Management, from my 2000 book “Adaptive Software Development.” Mountaineering and rock-climbing analogies are used throughout the book.

?Mountaineering in extreme conditions is not about skill, nor is it about strength and stamina—although they play an important part. Ultimately, extreme mountaineering is about judgment[1]. It is about walking the narrow edge between success and oblivion.

Given good weather and stable ice conditions, thousands of climbers have the skill and stamina to climb Mt. Everest. Natural hazards—violent storms, avalanches, falling ice seracs, hidden cornices, precarious rock that is waiting for an errant foot or hand, high altitude (which can cause debilitating altitude sickness and death)—are all conditions that can change a climb from difficult to treacherous. Skill and stamina, understanding the risks of natural hazards, and good judgment in balancing rewards (completing the climb) and risk (injury) are essential to making a successful ascents of big mountains like Mt. Everest, where the margin for error is very small. How to manage the risks is not always obvious.

For example, beginners often feel safest when tied to ropes, which are in turn attached to solid anchors. However, setting solid anchors, especially in variable snow and ice conditions, takes time. Taking time increases the risk that a climber will encounter bad weather, rock and ice fall, and darkness. Time saps energy and concentration.

Leeway when making life-threatening decisions, climbers call margin of error. Recreational climbers in moderate terrain have a wide margin of error: Their decisions could go either way, with minimal consequences. Occasionally, a decision made in moderate terrain results in a serious, but not devastating, outcome. Such episodes are called learning experiences. Enough learning experiences hone the judgment needed for more extreme climbs in which the margin of error is narrow.

There are several important points here that translate from thinking about climbing to thinking about adaptive management: First is the point that speed is frequently the safest course of action. Based on my experience on dozens of Adaptive projects, I know that customers are often so starved for results that they become ecstatic about whatever is delivered in three-to-six months. By the time a 12-to-18 month or longer project is delivered, relationships between developers and customers are ruined and reception of the product is unenthusiastic at best. With companies competing in the Internet software market, the landscape is littered with the slow and the bankrupt. Speed can also kill. In dangerous terrain, one misstep can send a person, or a company, plunging off the mountainside.

Second is the point that the terrain must match where you want to be. I, for example, will never climb Mt. Everest. I am not good enough, either physically or mentally—Everest is terrain I choose not to tackle. Similarly, the middle of a project is not the time to realize your team is working on an extreme, complex project which the team is not equipped to handle.

The third point is that the experience one needs to judge margins of error comes from testing one’s limits in increasingly demanding environments. In treacherous terrain where the probability of a slip is high, keen judgment is a must. In moderate ground, one is safe to explore while judgment is learned. Beginners can get hurt in relatively easy terrain, but they are usually protected from disaster by a worthy emotion—fear. Intermediate climbers get in the most trouble; their technical skills often are superior to their judgment. High on the mountain, the climber’s critical decision is always between advancing and retreating. Pushing limits is one thing, but ignoring risks is quite another. The best software teams and the best mountaineers are those who know when to advance and when to retreat. They understand the environment and its risks, and are able to balance their skills and the risks involved.

The fourth point is that decisions are made and actions are taken as the result of complex information and interactions. There are guidelines in the mountains, but no rules. Software teams who enter difficult terrain armed only with rules will fail. Rules can work in moderate terrain; knowing the exceptions to the rules is the key to success in complex terrain. At the extremes, superb skill, honed instincts, and good judgment are the cornerstones for success. Skill and judgment allow the mountaineer to mitigate risk, but not eliminate it. Ignoring risks heightens one’s dependence on luck; and relying on luck alone is a poor long-term strategy.

The last lesson here is that mountaineers are great improvisers. While there may be a few rules that are rigorously enforced (for example, establishing a time to start down regardless of the team’s progress), in the mountains “the map is never the territory.” A forty-foot vertical cliff can nestle hidden between two contour lines on a map. Complex software projects need a goal, some guidelines, and possibly even a few rules, but success—much to the chagrin of rigorous process proponents—often results from effective improvisation.

Speed, proper terrain selection, intelligent risk evaluation, good judgment, improvisation, and an ability to understand the difference between rules and guidelines are all part of traversing dangerous software mountains.

What the Mountains Taught Me?(next sections not in ASD book)

Knowledge: Your Starting Point

Your journey starts with a voracious quest for knowledge. Equipping yourself for a mountaineering expedition parallels preparing for the complexities of professional challenges. It's about delving into agile methodologies, or AI, or Web3, or Adaptive Leadership, grasping the principles that underlie effective teamwork and innovation. Yet, akin to studying a map, this knowledge offers a glimpse of the terrain, not the full experience. The real understanding comes when you embark on the journey, applying what you've learned in real-world scenarios.

Experience: The Path You Walk

Experience is gained by venturing into the unknown, leading projects through new territories, each with its own set of challenges and unpredictable conditions. Through these ventures, you realize that agility is more than a methodology—it's a mindset of adaptation, similar to rerouting your climb when facing an unforeseen obstacle. These experiences teach resilience, highlight the significance of team dynamics, and cultivate the courage to make pivotal decisions. It's in these moments that your knowledge is truly tested against reality.

Decision-Making (Judgment)

Judgment, perhaps the most crucial of capabilities, is the ability to make decisions when the path ahead is obscured, leveraging both your knowledge and experience. In mountaineering, this discernment can mean the difference between success and peril. In your career, it often dictates navigating projects towards their goals amidst uncertainties. Judgment is about knowing when to advance and when to adapt, understanding that setbacks are also key learning opportunities. This skill is refined over time, through successes and challenges alike, much like a seasoned climber who knows precisely when to push on or retreat.

?The Symphony of Capability Growth

The relationship between knowledge, experience, and judgment is a dynamic, evolving symphony that propels growth. It's not a linear progression but a cyclical one, where each element enriches the others. Your knowledge broadens through experience, your experience deepens your judgment, and your judgment, in turn, informs your pursuit of further knowledge. This cycle lies at the core of developing advanced capabilities, whether in confronting the ruggedness of a mountain or leading through the complexities of today's digital landscape.

Wrap UP: Lessons from the Peaks

The mountains remind us that capability extends beyond individual accomplishment to how we utilize our knowledge, experiences, and judgment to uplift those around us. In the realm of agile leadership, this translates to fostering environments where teams can flourish, innovate, and face challenges with confidence. It's about leading them through uncertainties with clarity and resilience.

As you face your mountains, be they of rock and ice or the professional hurdles ahead, remember the lessons of knowledge, experience, and judgment. These are the tools that will enable you to scale new heights, venture into uncharted territories, and achieve your aspirations. Embark on this journey with the heart of an explorer, eager to learn, adapt, and pave the way forward.

Heidi Musser Hugo Louren?o Curt Carlson, Ph.D. Darrell Rigby Hunter Hastings World Management Agility Forum Pete Behrens Angie Doyle Mark Béliczky Steve Denning Marcelo De Santis ?? Sanjiv Augustine ??

[1] In this early, pre-2000 book, I used the word “Judgement.” Recently I’ve used “Decision-Making”.