artnet The Intelligence Report Mid-Year Review 2024

Written by Sheena Carrington

The Stats

• $5.05 billion in fine art auction sales in H1 2024, down 29.5% from H1 2023.
• 10 women among the top 100 auction artists in H1 2024, up from 8 last year; 3 are in the top 20.
• $2.2 billion in fine art auction sales in the U.S. in H1 2024, more than 2.5 times the U.K.'s sales.
• $164.8 million spent on ultra-contemporary art by June 2024, a 39% decline from 2023.
• 29% decline in total sales at Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips from H1 2023.
• $27,301 average fine art auction price, down 26% from H1 2023.
• 30% drop in sales value for lots over $10 million in H1 2024 vs. 2023.
• 18% reduction in lots sold for over $10 million in H1 2024 compared to 2023.

1. Irrevocable Bids Secure Auction Sales In the First Half of 2024

The Top Ten Sales in the Post-War and Contemporary Sales, Andy Warhol’s Flowers topped the list, selling for $35.4 million. David Hockney’s A Lawn Being Sprinkled achieved $28.5 million, while his California fetched $23.9 million. Frank Stella’s Ifafa I sold for $15.2 million, followed by Ed Ruscha’s Truth at $14.7 million. Wayne Thiebaud’s Star Pinball rounded out the list, bringing in $11.3 million.

Leonora Carrington ranks third, among the female artists, with Les Distractions de Dagobert, which sold for $28.5 million, and Joan Mitchell featured twice in the top ten. This is an improvement over last year when only Louise Bourgeois made the list with her Spider sculpture, which sold for $32.8 million.

Jean-Michel Basquiat dominates the Contemporary top ten sales rankings with seven works, the highest being Untitled (ELMAR), which sold for $46.4 million at Phillips' May sale.

artnet points out an interesting pattern that emerges: with the exception of Ruscha and Carrington, the majority of these sales hammered either below or at the low estimate, only exceeding it when factoring in buyer’s premiums. Many of these pieces had either irrevocable bids (IB) or auction house guarantees (in some cases both), suggesting that the low hammers likely indicate sales going to guarantors.

This reflects two insights: first, there is still demand for million-dollar art pieces, especially in a market segment that is slowing. However, it also suggests that competition for these works remains low, highlighting a cautious market sentiment. Auction houses are carefully curating their sales, catering to ultra-wealthy buyers to keep the market afloat.

Additionally, despite a softening market, demand for Basquiat's original paintings remains strong, showcasing a healthy appetite from collectors. Auction reports from Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips, show that each sale significantly benefited from Basquiat’s presence. However, most of these works followed the auction house trend of including IB’s or? house guarantees, with final prices landing just at the low estimate.

2. Market Caution In Public Sales?

Sales value, lots sold, and average price per lot have all seen a decline in 2024 compared to the same period last year. This is largely due to the absence of high-priced masterpieces hitting the auction block. In contrast to 2023, which saw three sales exceeding $50 million, and 2022, which had 123 such sales, no artwork has crossed the $50 million mark so far this year. For example, Christie’s withdrew a high-profile Brice Marden painting estimated at $30 to $50 million from their May auctions. artnet attributes the current decline in high-value art sales to familiar factors including geopolitical instability, rising interest rates, and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election cycle.?

What does this mean?

These challenges mirror the overarching theme that has shaped the art market in 2023 and into 2024: market caution. This climate of uncertainty is what will drive many collectors toward private sales to protect their assets from the volatility of public auctions. This shift could sway decisions like that of the Brice Marden consignor, who alternatively could have chosen to avoid public auctions to safeguard the painting's value from potentially negative exposure.?

3. Contraction in High-Value Lots and Stability in Mid-Tier

Although Post-War and Contemporary art sales have contracted compared to the same period last year, this segment remains the most profitable, generating over $2 billion in sales and outperforming Old Masters, Impressionist, and Modern Art categories. The absence of high-value masterpiece lots has contributed to a 30% contraction in the $10 million-plus range, alongside a sharper 40% decline in the $1 million to $10 million range.?

The $100,000 to $1 million range saw a 27.6% decline in volume but generated roughly the same total sales value as works priced between $1 million and $10 million, indicating that more pieces were sold in this lower price bracket.

What does this mean?

artnet’s data underscores both caution and adaptability in the art market. While it’s clear that high-value works, particularly those priced above $10 million, are seeing a contraction, just as last year reported, there is a notable shift in interest towards mid-range works. This could suggest that collectors are becoming more mindful of pricing in an uncertain market, exploring opportunities at different price points. It also highlights an increased interest in works that may not be masterpieces but still hold significant artistic and financial value. The market's diversification, with more sales in the $100,000 to $1 million range, could indicate a greater willingness among collectors to consider works in various mediums and price brackets, adapting to a more dynamic and changing art landscape. This shift could pave the way for more accessible investment opportunities while maintaining strong overall market activity.

4. Online Art Market Average Price Drops in H1 2024 But Shows Growth from H2 2023

Online fine art sales reached $190 million in the first half of 2024, marking a 17% decline compared to the same period in 2023. However, this figure still represents a 302% increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The shift to digital platforms during the pandemic has maintained traction, although the average price point for online transactions has decreased. In the first half of this year, the average price of an artwork sold online was $14,553 - 21% lower than the same period in 2023, yet 5% higher than the second half of 2023.

What does this mean?

The growth in online sales, despite a slight decline from pandemic highs, demonstrates that digital platforms are continuing to become an integral part of the art market. Live trading floors and digital auction systems offer increased accessibility, allowing collectors to buy and sell art in real time, without the constraints of physical auction houses. For the art market, especially during a slump, online platforms can attract a wider audience, particularly younger, tech-savvy collectors who may feel more comfortable navigating the digital space. Features like live bidding and virtual trading allow for more liquidity and global reach, potentially revitalising sales even when the broader market shows caution.

5. Topsy-Turvy Market?

artnet and Morgan Stanley’s closing analysis interprets the current shifts in the global art market as “topsy-turvy” driven by political, economic, and institutional changes, which are creating a cautious yet adaptable atmosphere. Auction houses and galleries in key markets like London, New York, Paris, and Hong Kong have experienced notable fluctuations in sales and closures. New York continues to hold its dominant position in the global art market, but the report research indicates that this dominance has been largely driven by single-owner collections, which have seen a notable decline in the first half of the year. London’s art sales have dropped dramatically, nearly 50%, since the 2016 Brexit vote - falling from $3.4 billion in 2018 to $1.7 billion in 2023. Hong Kong’s market has seen “peaks and valleys”, reflecting the broader Chinese property crisis, though it continues to maintain a general upward trajectory. Meanwhile, Paris, which saw strong gains post-Brexit, faced a slight decline to $864 million in 2023, highlighting the global instability in all art hubs.

As the second half of the art market calendar unfolds, there are upcoming art fairs and autumn auctions, including marquee and print sales, all of which contribute to the market's overall performance. The growing popularity of online platforms, like MyArtBroker's Trading Floor, presents a more secure and transparent way for collectors to purchase art. These platforms help sustain interest and education among both novice and seasoned collectors. For more comprehensive support for all of your buying and collecting needs, visit MyArtBroker’s The Directory.