#02 Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved. Now what?

Welcome, dear reader!

A word upfront before you embark on a 10 minute read, which tells me you care.

I urge you to share this with your network if you feel called to spread awareness around these pivotal issues. Repost, like, comment and subscribe if you resonate with the perspectives shared here. Should you find my viewpoints far-fetched or disagree, I'm open to hearing your thoughts as well. That is why we are here.

Join the conversation and community forming around envisioning and manifesting a just, equitable and conscious future for humanity in the 4IR age. The stakes could not be higher, nor the opportunity greater.

Our collective future hangs in the balance. Where attention goes, energy flows. People don't care how much you know, until they know how much you care, and by reading this far, you have convinced me that you care, so why not continue?

Enjoy the read. ??

Salvi

A Rather Abridged Note on Socio-Economic History So Far

Born before 1964, the baby boomer generation found themselves in an economic sweet spot. They entered the workforce during the West's booming economies, a prosperity fueled further by the Third Industrial Revolution's (3IR) tech advances in the late 20th century. This not only secured jobs but also wealth for many in this lucky cohort.

Today, however, we're facing a different picture. With privatization on the rise and a widening gap between rich and poor, concerns about unchecked capitalism are growing. Inflation is pushing up the cost of living, making it harder for the average person to make ends meet.

This shift in the economic landscape has brought generational tensions to the forefront. Older individuals often hold onto top positions in businesses, academia, and politics, challenging younger generations' access to similar opportunities. The struggle for good jobs and affordable housing contrasts sharply with the baby boomers' earlier experiences.

As we edge into the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), it's clear we're at a pivotal moment. The clash between generations, the impact of runaway capitalism, and varying realities for different age groups underscore a complex situation. Yet, many of our socio-economic systems remain in a state of status quo, indicating we're not really finding new ways forward to address these issues effectively.

Are we heading in the right direction and will our children live better lives than we have? That seems like a path we can all rally around, can't we? From my own perspective, it doesn't really feel like we are heading in that direction. We have become accustomed to television programs where rich people try to live like poor people for some time, rather than governments actually trying to resolve the issue. We watch reality tv shows that start with the following statement:

"So much of what we rely on has fallen away. Everything about life has become more challenging and difficult. We all have to make sure that we're looking out for each other and that we're not leaving people behind."

(From 24 hours in A&E, Series 17)

The statement suggests that the reliable structures we once knew seem to be crumbling, making life increasingly tough. We're nudged into a mode of mutual care, ensuring we don't leave anyone behind. Yet, this mindset implies we're just getting by, focused on survival, which can be a bit grim.

But it's true: Did you know that in Belgium, where I live, child poverty rates vary by region, ranging from 7.3% to 23.3% according to UNICEF? In my mind, I'd make all traffic lights turn red until we reduce that number to 0%. The chronic anxiety and stress that this issue causes can scar individuals for life, which is unforgivable. It's not just about us either; people across the globe and the planet itself are also counting on our help.

But there's a conundrum: how do we unleash our most creative and visionary selves, ready to reorganize for a better future, when we're tied down by day jobs that, while necessary for our survival, keep the status quo? Quitting isn't a viable option; we depend on our incomes. So, we're tasked with finding a way to foster innovation and change within the constraints of our everyday work life.

Because, the following is true:

?I = W + Ic + S        

I represents the individual's total income,

• W is income from labor (wages, salaries, bonuses, and other employment compensation),
• Ic is income from capital (interest, dividends, rental income, and other investment earnings),
• S represents subsidies or any form of government or private financial assistance the individual receives. This could include unemployment benefits, social security payments, grants, welfare payments, or any other transfers designed to supplement the individual's income.

And apart from the lucky few I don't think many of us get their income mainly out of capital investments, so you're essentially stuck between working, or not working and hopefully getting some kind of subsidy, both of which may be far too low to get you out of survival mode anyway.

Now, this is how things are at what we might call the end of a post-industrial era. At least that is how it feels to me. We're on autopilot, but things are just getting more difficult and expensive. At the same time there is something new on the horizon, driven by innovations in the technology space, but with global ramifications: the 4th industrial revolution (4IR). Now, what is the 4IR?

The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) era

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) consists of interlocking technological advancements, each compounding the impact on the transformative landscape of change. At its core, Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, quantum computing, and blockchain are not standalone innovations but interconnected forces that amplify each other's impact.

An extended definition of the 4IR might include industry-specific technological breakthroughs like precision therapies in healthcare, programmable biology (also callled "multiomics"), and last but not least great advances in battery technology or even fusion power. For the sake of brevity, let's discuss the most key component of them all: AI.

?

The investor's (Ic) perspective: BULLSEYE!

I've picked the following graph from ARK Invest's chief futurist Brett Winton February 26, 2024 newsletter. Cathy Wood and ARK Invest gained fame for delivering exceptionally high returns, notably in 2020 when their ARK Innovation ETF surged by over 150%, primarily due to their early and bullish investments in disruptive technologies and companies like Tesla.

So yes, they are bullish on technology, but they do have a significant portfolio under active management and we have reason to be bullish at this moment in time.

The article forecasts an unprecedented 7% average annual real GDP growth, driven by technological innovations, a perspective based on historical economic transformations triggered by major technological advances. It challenges the conservative growth expectations of consensus forecasts, arguing that emerging technologies like robotics, AI, blockchain, and multiomics will significantly accelerate economic growth.

Mind that this report focuses on the US, but can be extrapolated to countries all around the globe. But keep in mind that a majority of AI companies are based in the US.

The laborer's (W) perspective: PANDEMONIUM!

The way that these gains are made is by cutting each and every manual worker out of the equation using AI (and at a later stage, robotics). The only reason you and I haven't been fired yet is because of inertia, or you're part of the automation team, or because you are high enough up a corporate ladder. But with a technology cheaper, faster, safer, and better than us at a fraction of the cost, we are finished.

And so will all jobs that require any kind of dexterity once robotics takes the next leap forward. And remember, AI replicas of these robots are trained in virtual environments that can run at 1000x the speed of the normal world, and in which breaking things doesn't cost anything, so expect them to arrive soon.

2024 has seen 42,000 tech layoffs in the U.S. by early March, with a backdrop of 190,000 job losses the previous year, suggesting a significant downturn in the tech industry. This trend is partly attributed to overhiring during the pandemic and criticisms of remote work, yet the primary catalyst is the rise of AI, leading to a shift towards automation over human employment due to costs and operational efficiencies.

This aligns with the principle that the best employee is no employee, pointing to a future with minimal human employment and companies operating with lean staff, leveraging AI.

The surge in AI and automation challenges the current economic model reliant on human labor and consumer demand, prompting discussions on post-labor economics and universal basic income (UBI) amidst opposition from some sectors. The current economic paradigm, centered on the necessity of human jobs, may not sustain with unemployment levels between 20% to 80%, highlighting the need for a new model.

Indeed, certain jobs, such as nursing, remain "safe from automation" for now. However, as more people shift towards these secure roles, we can expect a significant imbalance in demand and supply, likely causing disruption in the salaries for these positions.

This disruptive transformation follows a four-phased pattern of denial, downplay, distraction, and acceptance, seen in significant societal shifts. This four-phased model is a very classical model used both by companies and governments to manage public perception and navigate through periods of significant change. [Shapiro, D., 2024, 42,000 Tech Layoffs in 2024 Already - AI is the cause - Deny, Downplay, Distract [Propaganda]]

And things are accelerating beyond our wildest imagination

Elon Musk is suing Sam Altman and others connected to OpenAI over allegations that OpenAI deviated from its founding mission as a nonprofit aimed at developing AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) for humanity's benefit. OpenAI was originally conceived as a nonprofit research lab in 2015 by Musk, Altman and others to counterbalance profit-driven AGI efforts by Google. Musk claims OpenAI radically departed from this mission after licensing GPT-3 to Microsoft in 2020, keeping GPT-4's design secret rather than open-sourcing it.

Musk alleges OpenAI has already achieved AGI with GPT-4 based on its capabilities, but this has been kept hidden to benefit Microsoft commercially rather than humanity. He claims OpenAI is developing an AGI system called Q* (pronounced "Q star") that may pose safety risks. In November 2023, OpenAI's board fired Altman, but he forced out most of the board and reinstated himself as CEO with Microsoft's backing. Musk claims the new board lacks AI expertise to determine if OpenAI has achieved AGI, which would nullify Microsoft's rights.

Q* seems to be the missing puzzle piece to turn GPT-4 into a fully autonomous agent and is described as an "active reasoning" capability. Only last month, former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman and his investment partner, Daniel Gross, wrote a $100 million check to Magic, the developer of an artificial intelligence coding assistant, not because there is a shortage in AI coding assistants, but it is speculated that they were presented exactly that missing puzzle piece: be it an unlimited context window, an active reasoning agent like Q*, a newer architecture than the transformer architecture, or those things actually being synonymous to eachother.

Also in the chip manufacturing world, the GPU which was actually aimed at processing graphics, and because of its parallel processing capabilities turned out to be a great match for AI workloads, is now getting competition from several kinds of chips grouped under the "AI-PU" name. A company that is gaining traction quickly in this space is called Groq (not to be confused with Elon Musk's Twitter AI "Grok"). They developed an LPU (Language Processing Unit), offering 10x performance at 1/10th latency and consuming minimum energy when compared to Nvidia GPUs. Do mind that this chip is meant for inferencing purposes (aka "using the model"), not training or finetuning.

But with capabilities going through the roof and costs going down quickly, we cannot call these rapidly unfolding events anything else than a tidal wave for which nobody can be ready. For those who heard about OpenAI's SORA text-to-minute-long-video model, one of the OpenAI employees tweeted that OpenAI purposefully puts out these teasers to somehow "prepare" the audience for what is coming. So imagine what they have that they are not showing. All of this leads me to believe AGI has been established, or will be established within months. Forget about Microsoft's "copilot" let-me-improve-your-powerpoint bullshit; we are talking about autonomous agents here.

Conclusion: Spread this word

How can we possibly free up our minds to contemplate the end of a socio-economic paradigm if we are busy contemplating the end of the month financially? And if this is the current state, what if your income drops to zero because of yet another paradigmatic shift? And if it is not your income, what about that of your neighbor? An injury to one is an injury to us all. If this is not proactively addressed, we are heading towards "French revolutionary times".

It is not enough to stop people falling from the socio-economic cliff, we have to get them away from the vicinity of the cliff. Only then will they become mentally available to be their most creative self and we need the collective brain power of all of you to get us out of a serious ditch we have driven ourserselves into, such as a pending climate disaster.

And, just like US presidential candidate Marianne Williamson from whom I borrowed the words in this paragraph, I do not count on the people who drove us into this ditch to get us out of it. Not the politicians, not the multinational companies. It is time for the people to take action.

Nor do I expect from any of you to come up with all the answers to this perfect storm of circumstances, but what you can do is spread awareness. It is awareness among many people that enforces action and limits inertia.

Invite all LinkedIn contacts you think that might be interested in becoming a hero in the 4th industrial revolution to this newsletter. Make them understand that the denial-mode these top AI companies, multinationals and country leaders are in is just following the propaganda handbook. AI will not create as many jobs as it eradicates. It is an illusion.

Time is against us, but we have to keep a strong attitude. Let me close this newsletter with the words of leadership guru John C. Maxwell:

"No society has ever developed tough men during times of peace. Adversity is prosperity to those who possess a great attitude. Kites rise against, not with, the wind. When the adverse wind of criticism blows, allow it to be to you what the blast of wind is to the kite—a force against it that lifts it higher. A kite would not fly unless it had the controlling tension of the string to tie it down.

Great leaders emerge when crises occur. In the lives of people who achieve, we read repeatedly of terrible troubles that forced them to rise above the commonplace. Not only do they find the answers, but they also discover a tremendous power within themselves. Like a groundswell far out in the ocean, this force within explodes into a mighty wave when circumstances seem to overcome. Then out steps the athlete, the author, the statesman, the scientist, or the businessman."

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