Article #6 : a complex system of systems

As I said in the video that relates to this series of articles that I’ve written, this is a truly wicked problem.

The pace and scale of change that is demanded of this specific generation will be relentless – indeed it must be relentless.

And yet, there are constructs that make such concentrated effort both challenging and potentially delayed.

This is a game of multiple chickens and multiple eggs

There’s a confession here that I’m personally prevaricating about the total cost of ownership of my current second hand, 5,000 miles per year small engine car vs a battery vehicle.?The total cost of carbon of material extraction of scare metals, production, as well as then the operational costs must all be considered when what I have already is ‘perceptively’ bad for the environment, but still effective and functional.?

From one such question roll many others… to lose the car entirely, to walk more to reduce short journeys, to own a car but to not fly… etc

And across each of the themes of the Net Zero strategy there will be many individuals, business leaders and government officials battling with the same challenges.

The balance (and timing) of cost, performance and risk – the pillars of asset management decision making – must now be expanded beyond just the financial investment case of one sector, but many, and not just against cost, but against the decarbonisation rate, opportunity and negative cost of hinderance.

It is not absolutely clear how we will fulfil the future total energy demand – all we know is that it will be large… if both heating and transport are to decarbonise then we must be clear on the alternative energy source… both need investment, networks and time to construct them.

The system of systems and the complexity thereof… (posh words hey)

I’m not seeking to make the complexity and jargony for the sake of it… So here’s a diagram to try to explain… It has two elements to it, and one dart that pierces through it.

The first element are the three circles in the centre of the picture.?The represent the physical asset / system / network, the technology that supports it, and the “business” change that needs to happen to drive and release value… At the heart of this Venn diagram is the overlapping complexity of getting something done!

This second element of the picture the boundary of the system being spoken of… what the Net Zero strategy identify as the seven themes… I’ve draw three of them, but imagine the others cascading behind.?Each of these has its own challenges and its own Venn diagram of Physical, Technology and Change.

Then the third element is a dart, in the shape of the centre of the Venn diagram, piercing through each of the system layers… It is the inter-dependencies of this dart that creates the complex system of systems that we must carefully manage across private and public organisations, and multiple sectors in the journey to Net Zero.

Let me pick out just a few of the many examples of that complexity…

1) Operational control

New central operational control becomes critical to power production / distribution and energy storage – where natural storage, be that pumped hydro, or gravity mine, or underground thermal aquifers, or solid state batteries, are all likely to be new, private investor led sites that need connecting to, and distributing through an existing (and more resilient) power network.?The bi-lateral flow of power will need to be safe and secure, and the choices made both dynamic and fair.

2) Secondary storage and supply

Energy storage becomes part of a dynamic daily control / optimisation of available power production. A car can be charged at home (off-peak) to travel to an intermediary for further travel / work (station or office).?At this location it becomes part of a dynamic control of the wider power network – enabling fluctuations in need to be managed.?As long as the vehicle is fully charged for the user’s return, the moment of recharge is not significant.

3) Dual Fuel Trains enable full network coverage

Whilst electrification of the rail network is a stated ambition for its future, it will not be possible to decarbonise all domestic and freight routes through this method.?Innovation around alternative fuel cells and on-board power creation will help to expand the reach of decarbonised services.?Whilst battery and pure hydrogen fuels are currently in play, other methods of extracting energy from less volatile sources like ammonia will also become viable.

4) Finding new logistics solutions

Domestic freight uses the backbones of the strategic road network of motorways and trunks roads, and the long-distance rail network to transport goods to communities. We must make choices not only about the expectations of “next-day” goods, but also about how they travel across our lands – whilst there is little conversation about re-instating slow canal routes, there are opportunities for a new sub-vacuum freight network that removes the burden on existing roads and rail – whilst being less impactful to the environment.

5) Light industry plays significant role in heat transfer re-use

Light industry exists in every town and conurbation.?Very little of this was constructed with environmental efficiency at its heart – be that simply the old infrastructure, or the potential for large spaces (and doors). Many run machinery that creates and discharge excess heat.?As we move towards a society that values heat and excess as a thing of valuable, so greater retrofitting of heat re-use solutions will become the norm alongside more obvious solar and micro wind turbine solutions.

6) Green mass transit options expand

Early adopter changes in mass transit domestic transport are happening.?Buses accept weight easily enough that bio-fuel or hydrogen fuel tanks are less intrusive that on a smaller vehicle.?They also typically have both predictable and relatively low daily mileage, making the fuel supply easier to forecast.?As true autonomy of mass transit vehicles also emerges for the same predictability of route, then the options for large scale roll-out to sub-urban mobility becomes a near term reality.

7) Grey water becomes common part of household usage

Domestic grey water storage is an emerging norm that has multiple benefits – particularly in new, denser, modern building patterns.?Grey water storage can provide a water resource in a warming world, but also as a buffer to the increasing extremes of weather that risk flooding older water causes.?However, there will be an increasing development of home bound technology that makes grey water at least relatively safe (compared to sanitised drinking water) and therefore acceptable for wider domestic tasks such as washing, or flushing toilets.

8) Circular economy for end-of-life battery recycling and reuse

Current battery technology will develop at a rate of innovation hard to uncomprehend unless you are within the research.?The traditional battery is a sealed energy source that are rarely easy to re-cycle, yet contain either rare earth metals, or at least contain metals with high extraction costs. In the short term there will be a divergence of efforts both to develop new, non-liquid battery forms, and also to create a circular economy for the safe removal and reuse of materials from within aging vehicle and storage batteries.

9) Personal production and reverse connection to the grid grows

Every little is going to count in the journey to decarbonisation and transition – and it seems clear that many will seek to play their part as micro producers and users.?This is already a phenomenon that is real, with a period of government incentives creating an early adopter market.?There will be significant increase in these as new builds place this at the centre of zero-gas connectivity, and both productivity and local demand fluctuation storage at either single house or community level.

10) Alternative to fossil fuels shape new micro generation

At an even more granular level, a whole new sector of retro-fit and adaption of household power and heating systems will be necessary – with lower-level residual heating flow systems – enabling both different heating solutions (solar powered electric heating or hot water heating, and air-source heat exchange) – together with an increase of heat loss insulation.??This will scale a new supply chain and manufacturing capability, yet it will be seeking materials and components in an increasingly busy global market.

11) Circular economy of heat loss links residential systems

The “circularity of the laws of thermodynamics” – or in less grand language… how we re-use the heat loss of domestic EV charging infrastructure.?The fossil fuel in an internal combustion engine creates heat loss, difficult to reuse for much else than cold winter mornings… however, the energy efficiency of an EV motor is very high, and it actually at the point of charging into the battery that creates the heat loss.?New innovation will quickly regard this as a capable contributor to heat transfer solutions in low-flow domestic systems.

These are just a few of the challenges that cross themes in the government Net Zero strategy, and that therefore cross government departments, budgets, and programme teams…?the need for joined up thinking in this space to drive and release change must navigate these potential blockers, timings and inter-dependencies to optimise the value of the whole.?

This is not an easy task, but still one that it clearly necessary so that the order of the chickens and the eggs can be correctly chosen.

A series of articles

In the series of articles that follow this one, I set out to present the visual narrative, and the contributions that are made over seven themes set out by the UK government’s Net Zero Strategy.

UK government’s?Net Zero Strategy.

Video :?navigating a journey to zero

Article #1 :?a description of the journey over time

Article #2 :?a description of the journey over time

Article?#3 : the first three movers… national infrastructure : power, fuel and hydrogen, and industry

Article?#4 : the middle two… within our gift : heat and buildings, and transport

Article?#5 : the final two… the world we live in : natural resources, waste and fluoride gases, and greenhouse gas removal

Article?#6 : a complex system of systems

Article?#7 : the mindset and capability for net zero readiness

Article?#8 : so what’s missing?