Article 1: Overview of how OGP helped to de-risk Pumped Storage Hydro projects.

What is Pumped Storage Hydro?

Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) is a type of hydroelectric energy storage system that operates like a giant battery. It works by using two water reservoirs at different elevations. During periods of low electricity demand (off-peak times), excess energy from the grid is used to pump water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir. During periods of high electricity demand (peak times), this stored water is released back down to the lower reservoir, passing through turbines to generate electricity

Balancing renewable energy

PSH is a highly effective way to balance renewable energy sources like wind and solar because it can quickly store and release energy as needed. Since wind and solar power are intermittent—meaning they generate electricity only when the wind is blowing or the sun is shining—there can be times when these sources produce more energy than the grid needs or less than what is required. PSH helps balance these fluctuations by:

• When wind and solar generate more power than needed, PSH uses the surplus electricity to pump water to the upper reservoir. This effectively stores the energy for later use.
• When renewable generation is low or demand is high, the stored water is released to flow back to the lower reservoir, generating electricity quickly and supplying power to the grid.

And this is why they are often referred to as large batteries or Long duration electricity storage (LDES) assets

And the UK is looking at several new PSH – but that’s for another day

How did Oxford Global Projects help to de-risk PSH

Oxford Global Projects partnered with two client organizations in the development phase of three major PSH projects (worth multiple billions) across the US and Australia. Leveraging our comprehensive database and a team of dedicated research enthusiasts, we provide in-depth quantitative and qualitative insights and case studies on PSH projects—exploring the "Good, the Bad, and the Snowy”?

Our work included:

Quantitative analysis:

• Multiple regression models to identify key cost, schedule and risk drivers (very cool )
• Benchmarking (cost/schedule)
• Reference Class Forecasting (cost/schedule)
• Comparing asset/work tasks analysis ie tunnelling method performance (excavation vs TBMs)

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Comparing the outside view with the inside?

The analysis was used to triangulate top-down approaches (Benchmarking & RCF) with bottom-up assessments, fostering constructive tension and robust discussions around project forecasts.

Qualitative analysis:

Deep dives and case studies explore how these projects set themselves up for success, leveraging innovation, identifying success factors, and managing key risks—allowing our clients to learn from proven strategies and challenges faced by those who have gone before them.

Some key insights from our work, I wanted to share for all PSH (N=58):

• Mean cost overrun 18%
• Mean schedule overrun 39%
• Our analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in performance between public and privately delivered PSH project
• Overconfidence and optimism in geotechnical assessments emerged as a key risk across multiple case studies. Many projects believed they had a thorough understanding of ground conditions, only to encounter unforeseen and significant challenges that led to unexpected issues and delays.

These are just a snippet of our analysis and work and if you would like to know more, then please feel free to reach out to me [email protected]