Art Without Science
Julia Hoagland
20-year NYC residential real estate veteran. My team closed hundreds of deals and over $1B in transaction volume. I now connect buyers and sellers with expert agents in New York City, across the US and around the world.
Relative data is informative when comparing across time periods with otherwise similar characteristics: clearly nothing is similar to COVID and a market closed for three months. Absolute data in a vacuum is similarly uninstructive. Maximizing value in real estate transactions is a science and an art: because of the absence of meaningful quantitative information, this quarter’s report focuses on the qualitative.
Priorities have shifted for many, with real estate either going out of, or conversely coming into greater focus. We are now two weeks into the market’s reopening and deals are materializing. Transactions are specific to properties that are 1) priced well 2) have wow factor 3) in areas that were not oversaturated/were undersupplied going into COVID, and/or 4) primarily in the lower-end (sub-$3M) end-user market (as opposed to investor). While there is certainly a contingent leaving the city, clearly buyers still have confidence in NYC. The “pause exhaustion” that drove demand in 1Q20 is even more glaring now for those remaining in the market.
Interest rates are at literal historical lows: affordability is greater now than it has been in decades. Inflation is virtually non-existent. NYC continues to have great diversity in job sectors. Adversity will breed innovation, society will progress; we will become more efficient and creatively evolve.
We have survived and thrived following a civil war, a previous worldwide pandemic, the Great Depression, two world wars, 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. Cities are historically resilient, and New York is no exception.
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4 年??
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4 年For not having much data there sure was quite a lot of it in that article! The human mind is fascinating. In lieu of true and implicit understanding people fall back to a basic academic approach of specifications and quantitative analysis. The irony is that while you can compare figures they don’t always tell you the true story. On the other end, isn’t it nice to know that if you want something, have the money, and believe in the inherent value (given all parameters) it really doesn’t matter what a “comp” says. Inversely, a comp moth tell you they are the same when they really are not. Just like art, you know it when you see it! And that is a great apartment :)
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4 年BOOM! Would love to see what inventories you have!