The Art of War

Cognitive Effect

The Fifth Generation Environment

The fifth generation mission space will be cognitive in nature: success will reside with the side that wins the cognitive space. In support of this shift away from the third and fourth generation environments, the way in which we operate in the 5G mission space will have to shift. This will lead us towards the central strand that cognitive effect is critical to success. The way in which cognitive effect is achieved, the tools that are used, will become the armoury of the fifth generation actor.

In this section, we explore the phases of a potential fifth generation conflict. In the scenario laid out in the document we see the manipulation of a narrative, but in other scenarios the early stages of a fifth generation conflict could be a military exercise or an economic campaign. Arguably the Belt and Roads initiative is an economic and political campaign to affect a change in trading routes. These new routes through the road of the South China Sea ‘need’ to be defended argue the Chinese. This has led to the construction of military outposts on artificial islands around strategically important locations. In General Gerasimov's doctrine of ‘the value of science in prediction’, he discusses the evolution in Russian tactics learning from “Russia’s ‘guerrilla geopolitics,’” and an appreciation that new tactics were needed which focus on the enemy’s weaknesses and avoid direct and overt confrontations. This doctrine was practiced in the recent Crimea ‘conflict’.

There are many paths to conflict in the 5GW mission space but all are leading toward having cognitive effect on the opponent.