Art of Uncertainty: Deception

An excerpt from my article published in a Journal in Year 2014

----- 8.      As a capability building measure, USA has military and civilian projects in place which would place them in a position of formidable military superiority when at war. One very potent weapon in arsenal of US forces is the ‘Environmental Modification Programme’.

9.      The US military has developed advanced capabilities that enable it selectively to alter weather patterns over a distinct geographical area across the globe. The ability to generate precipitation, fog and storms on earth or to modify space weather and the production of artificial weather over a localized areas are a part of an integrated set of military technologies which can be extensively employed for Deception as well as shaping the battlefield. This Environmental Modification technology, is being developed under the High-Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) in US , which is an appendage of the Strategic Defense Initiative – ‘Star Wars’. From a military standpoint, HAARP is definitely a weapon of mass destruction, operating from the outer atmosphere and capable of destabilizing agricultural and ecological systems of any region around the world. 

    Array of Antennas: HAARP facility in US

10.   For military use, US can use this technology to create rain that turns battlefields into mud baths in order to immobilize enemy troops and enemies. Another option is by triggering unexpected lightning storms over airfields to keep hostile aircraft on the ground. Such measures when used by the enemy, would change the whole battle scenario in not weeks or days but in hours. For some, it may be surprising to learn that Environmental modification techniques have been applied by the US military for more than half a century.         

Operation Popeye: Acknowledged Weather Modification Programme for Military Advantage

11.    In Southeast Asia during 1967–1972 during the Vietnam war, Op Popeye was a highly classified weather modification program. Cloud-Seeding techniques were used by US Military under this operation. The objective of operation was to prolong the East Asian monsoon season by incurring heavy rains and blocking enemy supply routes along the Ho Chi Minh Trail in support of U.S. government efforts related to the War in Southeast Asia. The operation seeded clouds with silver iodide and lead iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period by an average of 30 to 45 days.

Weather Warfare by US against “Rogue States” ???? …..??

 12.    While ‘Op Popeye’ is a known Military operation, there exists several instances of abnormal weather changes across the globe whose reasons are still being ventured. The unusual climatic occurrences in the US and Western Europe have been extensively documented and discussed in media. However, what the news media has failed to underscore is that a number of unusual and dramatic climatic changes which have occurred in recent years in countries which are identified as possible targets under the US administration’s pre-emptive war doctrine.

13.    Weather patterns in North Korea, for instance, have been marked since the mid-1990s by a succession of droughts, followed by floods. The result has been the destruction of an entire agricultural system. In Cuba, the pattern is very similar to that observed in North Korea. For several years, Cuba has been affected by recurrent droughts. In 1998, rainfall in Eastern Cuba was at its lowest level since 1941. In 2003, a devastating drought hit the Western part of Cuba. In May-June 2004, the country was hit by the worst drought in its history. In year 1999, Iraq suffered its worst drought of the century, resulting into greater dependence on imported grain under the oil for food program. In Afghanistan, four years of drought in the years preceding the US led invasion in 2001, have led to the destruction of the economy, leading to widespread famine.

14.    Disasters like these do happen naturally, yet if one begins to research, there is some high strangeness and similarity on victims of these disasters. However, avid readers would be aware that ‘Stealth Bomber’ was kept top secret for many years, and the public still has no way of knowing its full capabilities. It is through the use of the highly organized military and intelligence services that the power elite of this world, in cooperation with key allies in government and corporate ownership of the media, are able to carry out major cover-ups and secret operations like those involved with HAARP. According to the official HAARP website , "HAARP is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems for both civilian and defense purposes." While there is no firm evidence that the US Air Force weather warfare facilities have been deliberately applied to modify weather patterns, one would expect that if these capabilities are being developed for military use, they would at least be the object of routine testing, much in the same way as the testing of new conventional and strategic weapons systems.

15.    The possibility of climatic or environmental manipulations as part of a military and intelligence agenda, while tacitly acknowledged, is never have been debated in an open international forum. Military analysts are mute on the subject, meteorologists are not investigating the matter, and environmentalists are strung on global warming and the Kyoto protocol. Needless to say, the subject matter is a scientific taboo. It is up to the avid readers of the article to treat the incidents in some supposedly third world country as normal standalone cases or relate and fit these in a bigger picture involving global players.

Need of Hour

16.    The author believes that there is reluctance of the Indian Army to develop a standard doctrine for deceiving the enemy. It is believed that written deception doctrine defects the intent of deception because if you write it down and issue it as doctrine, then essentially you have limited someone’s imagination. Notwithstanding the existing constraints, armed forces must be prepared to use this valuable combat multiplier especially in today’s environment of “minimum force and max impact “.

 17.    The scale of deception operations by Global Superpowers during peacetime is unequalled to one of our nation. India does not dedicate or cannot afford to divert the same amount of monetary resources as developed nations on deception measures during peacetime. Notwithstanding, measures for capability building has to be relentlessly pursued. Digital threat protection solutions for military IT assets which can detect and analyse advance attacks from adversaries needs to be put in right place. With opening of FDI in defence sector, availability of in house educated young technocrats compounded with willing funds from our citizens who have off late made a mark in world economy, tailor made projects catering to our unique needs must be developed in country. Officers educational systems must be improved by giving due weightage to this aspect of military art in their training curriculums. Awareness of the use of illegal / legal means of deception must be kept high. Although, India will never use illegal means, potential adversaries CERTAINLY will – therefore, planners must be aware of the peacetime national assets available to conduct deception.