The Art of Timing: When is the best time to move in quant trading??

One question I've been asked repeatedly throughout my career in quant trading recruitment is: "When is the best time to move?"

In the high-stakes world of quant trading, timing isn't just crucial for algorithms but pivotal for career advancement. Whether you're a Quant Researcher or a Portfolio Manager, the timing of your job search can have a lasting impact on your career.

This article delves into the factors you should consider when contemplating a career change. It's not about finding the "perfect" time to move—because there isn't one. Instead, it's about optimising your timing to align with personal and professional goals.

There is no "perfect" time to make a career move in the quant trading industry. There are so many variables to consider and factors that influence. Sometimes, these factors are hugely important in one process but nonexistent in another job search.?

The factors influencing your move can vary widely from one job search to another. These range from market conditions and economic indicators to bonus cycles and fiscal year-ends. Each of these elements can affect the availability of roles and the terms of your potential new position. By taking a holistic approach to these variables, you can strategically time your move to maximise benefits and minimise risks.

The Interview Process: A Reality Check

The real question isn't "When is the best time to move?" but "When should you start looking?" The gap between initiating a job search and landing a new role can be substantial.

While instant hires are more myth than reality, the interview process for Portfolio Managers and Quant Researchers often stretches over 2-3 months. This duration is crucial, primarily if you aim to coincide a job offer with your bonus payout.

For those who appreciate a detailed breakdown, let's consider an 8 to 12-week timeline more closely. The first week often involves initial contact and setting up the first interview. Then, if we assume a 5-round interview process with one round per week, that's another five weeks. Add a week for internal deliberations on the employer's end; you're at seven weeks. Finalising a verbal offer and contract can take up another two weeks, bringing the total to 9 weeks. If you factor in potential delays—like additional rounds of interviews, rescheduling due to unforeseen circumstances, or extended internal discussions—you can quickly see how the process stretches into the 10 to 12-week range.

Understanding this timeline is crucial for strategic planning. Initiating your job search 2-3 months before bonus season could align a job offer with your bonus payout. This is particularly advantageous if your bonus fails to meet your expectations. Additionally, starting earlier increases the likelihood of receiving a guarantee from your new employer. Even if a guarantee isn't on the table, the early start offers peace of mind by minimising your time out of the market, thereby reducing potential income gaps.

Strategic Timing Beyond the Interview Process

While understanding the interview timeline is a cornerstone of strategic planning, it's not the only variable in play. Your availability for interviews, competition from other candidates, and the hiring cycles of financial institutions also play pivotal roles in determining the optimal timing for your move.

For instance, summer is often considered a challenging period to initiate a job search due to holidays and the reduced availability of key decision-makers. However, this season also presents a unique advantage: lower competition. If you're someone who may not excel in interviews or doesn't have a standout résumé, the summer months could offer a strategic edge.

Bonus Season: A Double-Edged Sword

While many see the post-bonus period as a prime time for job changes, it's crucial to remember that this is also when competition peaks. Firms expect turnover and are inundated with applications, making it essential to have a strategy that sets you apart. It is good advice to get a jump on your competition and start your search before bonuses are paid.?

Starting your job search only after your bonus lands can put you at a disadvantage. By then, many proactive candidates are already in the final stages of interviews or have secured offers. You're late to the game, and the most sought-after roles are likely off the table.

The Role of Bonuses in Career Moves

Bonuses aren't just a financial windfall; they're a strategic asset. They can be leveraged in negotiations, particularly early in the year when guarantees for the following year's bonus are more likely. However, as the year progresses, securing a guarantee becomes increasingly challenging.

Understanding Guarantees

It's a misconception to see guarantees as 'free money.' They're a commitment from the new employer to match what you would have earned in bonuses at your previous job. This is especially relevant if you're joining later in the year, as expecting a full year's bonus for just a few months of work is unrealistic.

The Fine Balance

Both parties should benefit from a guarantee. You get financial stability, and your new employer benefits from your skills and productivity. If the timing of your job search skews this balance, a guarantee becomes less likely.

Exceptions to the Rule

While this advice is broadly applicable, there are outliers. Some quants are so exceptional that they can command multi-year guarantees and substantial sign-on bonuses. But for most, strategic timing is crucial in securing a favourable package.

Beyond Bonuses: A Holistic Approach to Timing Your Move

While bonuses are a significant factor in timing your job search, they're just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Here, we'll explore other elements that can influence your decision on when to make a career move in the quant trading industry.

Market Cycles and Timing

Market conditions play a pivotal role in hiring trends. During bullish periods, firms are eager to onboard new talent. Conversely, volatile markets often lead to hiring freezes. Monitoring market conditions and aligning them with your career goals is essential.

Fiscal Year-End: Budgets and Opportunities

The fiscal year-end offers another strategic window. New budgets get approved, and firms gain clarity on staffing needs. In Europe, this often leads to increased opportunities around April and May, while US banks, aligned with the calendar year, see a spike in February and March.

Project Cycles: The Art of the Graceful Exit

If you're deeply involved in a long-term project, consider timing your exit upon completion. Leaving midway could burn bridges and harm your reputation. Completing a project enhances your resume and provides a natural transition point, making your exit less disruptive to your current team.

Networking Events and Conferences: The Informal Job Market

While not tied to a specific time of year, industry events offer invaluable networking opportunities. They happen throughout the year, but there is an increase in events with end-of-year award seasons. These occur around November & December. These gatherings can serve as informal job markets where you can meet potential employers and even secure interviews. Always come prepared with an elevator pitch, as you never know who you might encounter.

Skill Set and Market Demand: The Ever-Changing Landscape

The quant trading field continually evolves, with techniques like machine learning or high-frequency trading algorithms pushing the envelope. Knowing how market demand aligns with your skills can help you identify the optimal time to enter the job market. Maybe the best time for you to move is two years after completing a part-time master's in machine learning, for example.?

Geographical Considerations: A Global Perspective

Given the global nature of quant trading, it's essential to consider geographical factors. Hiring cycles between London, NYC, Singapore, and other financial hubs can differ significantly. Local factors like financial reporting periods, public holidays, and cultural nuances can influence firms' hiring decisions. For example, trying to find a job in Singapore in the run-up to and during Chinese New Year is similar to trying to find one in a European summer.?

The Personal Equation: Motivations, Projects, and Life

While professional factors are crucial, consider the impact of personal circumstances on your career timing. Whether it's family commitments, personal milestones, or well-being, these elements can significantly influence your decision to move. For instance, if you have a significant life event coming up, like a wedding or the birth of a child, it might be prudent to delay your job search until after these events. Similarly, if you're deeply invested in a personal project or pursuing further education, aligning your job search with completing these commitments can make for a smoother transition.

Patience and Strategy: The Underestimated Factors

Patience is often underrated in the job search process. Ideal roles may only sometimes be readily available and may appear sporadically. If a guaranteed bonus is your goal, you should aim for a move early in the year, calendar Q1, after your bonus lands. If you're more interested in a unique role, contact select recruiters and network regularly.

Optimal Timeframes for Buy-Side and Sell-Side Quants

After considering factors like market cycles, fiscal year-ends, and personal circumstances, let's distil this information into actionable timeframes for both buy-side and sell-side professionals.

The Ideal Timeframe: Buy-Side?

October to December, through to March.?

For those on the buy side, the last quarter is a prime window for initiating your job search. Firms are in planning mode, identifying areas for growth, key hires, and budget allocations. With a strong performance record for ten eleven months of the year, firms are more willing to invest in new talent.

Portfolio Managers: Your optimal window for job searching begins from October through February. Starting your search in mid to late October allows you to be in the final stages by December or January, ideally coinciding with when your bonus lands. This timing can facilitate a quick resignation, minimising your time out of the market and the next bonus cycle, and gives you power should you not be happy with your bonus. While guarantees are ideal and typical for good portfolio managers, they're only sometimes feasible, making it crucial to limit your market absence.

Quant Researchers: The start of the new year often presents the best opportunities. That said, roles can be made available in November and December. Teams with solid performance to this point may get a jump on the market by making early offers. These are often verbal commitments with guarantees for the following year and are made before the end of the year, allowing researchers to exercise the offer once they've secured their current year's bonus. US firms will start to become very active after Thanksgiving.?

The new year brings fresh openings based on fund growth plans. Through the year's first three months, new roles under recently hired PMs or recently vacated seats become increasingly available from January to April.?

The Ideal Timeframe: Sell-Side?

December to March/April

The sell-side operates differently, including in its hiring practices. Processes are generally longer; a 5-round interview is a best-case scenario, with 6-8 rounds being more typical. The record I've seen is a staggering 21 rounds, but that's a story for another day.

American Banks usually announce bonuses in January and are often the first to hire. Hiring plans and headcounts are typically approved at year-end, making the start of the calendar year an excellent time to begin your search. Occasionally, critical roles may even open up in December.

European Banks, unlike their American counterparts, typically announce bonuses later, around February, and pay them out by the end of March. New and replacement headcounts often become available shortly after, offering another wave of opportunities.

Seat Shuffle: As bonuses are paid out, seats are reshuffled, providing opportunities. This is especially true for quants who can capitalise on these newly vacated positions.

A Manager's Guide: Timing Your Talent Acquisition in a Competitive Landscape

While most of this article has been aimed at candidates, let's remember the hiring managers navigating this complex landscape. The war for talent intensifies each year, making it imperative for firms to act swiftly and decisively.

General Advice

Decide Early, Move Quickly: The key is to decide early, move quickly, and act decisively. Be prepared to hire and focus on creating an environment and culture that minimises attrition.

Begin Conversations Early: You can start conversations with skilled talent well before you're ready to make an offer. These early dialogues can give you a sense of what's available and help shape your hiring plans.

Learn from the Candidate's Playbook: Consider the advice given to candidates in this article and its rationale. Use this insight to inform your search strategy.

Watch Your Competitors: Keep an eye on what your competitors are doing. If they typically start their talent search in the new year, get a jump on them by beginning a month early.

Targeted Talent Pools: Consider targeting groups with poor yearly performance. They will still have valuable individuals. Conversely, if you're targeting high-performing groups, be prepared for the financial investment to lure someone away.

Specific Timing Advice

Buy-Side Managers: Portfolio Managers and Quant Researchers are most active in their job search from October to December. To capitalise on this, get your job descriptions and budgets approved well in advance.

Sell-Side Managers: December to March/April is advisable. Given the longer interview processes typical on the sell side, initiating your talent search at the start of the year is advisable. The extremely well-prepared begin interviewing before the official sign-off of a role in anticipation of headcount approval or knowledge someone in nearly every team will hand in their notice after the bonus.?

Conclusion

One thing is clear as we've navigated the complexities of career timing in the quant trading sector. Both candidates and hiring managers need to be as strategic with their career moves as they are with their trading algorithms. Whether you're looking to advance your career or secure top talent for your team, the timing can significantly influence the outcome.

For Candidates: There's no one-size-fits-all answer to the question, "When is the best time to move?" However, by considering market cycles, bonus seasons, and even your life circumstances, you can strategically time your job search to maximise benefits and minimise risks. The critical takeaway is to start your search before you're ready to move. This allows you to align job offers with bonus payouts and even leverage guarantees, all while minimising your time out of the market.

For Hiring Managers: The war for talent is intensifying. To stay competitive, you must decide early, move quickly, and act decisively. Timing your talent acquisition to coincide with when candidates are most active can give you a significant advantage. For buy-side managers, October to December is a prime window, while the period from December to March/April is crucial for sell-side managers.

A Word of Caution

It's important to note that while the advice in this article aims to optimise your timing, it's not a one-size-fits-all solution. Real life is full of variables, all interacting in complex ways. A quant trader in Singapore might have a bumper July in equities, while someone in NYC in a drawdown could be let go. Like a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a hurricane, things are interconnected in ways we can't always predict. Opportunities arise throughout the year, and while the guidance here may be applicable in 70-80% of moves, exceptions exist in large numbers. This article provides a framework for optimising a job move, fully acknowledging that life's complexities often defy easy categorisation and that hiring & job moves are a year-round endeavour.?

In summary, while timing is a critical factor, it's not the only one. A well-thought-out strategy considering multiple variables can make all the difference, whether looking to make a career move or hiring the best in the business.

I hope you've enjoyed it and found it helpful. Let me know how your experience has been with timing a career move.

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