The Art of Thinking Clearly (Rolf Dobelli) – Book Summary, Notes & Highlights

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This book helped me understand our decision-making process better. Regardless of the technological advancements we have, it is fascinating to see how we are, in a way, still acting like our ancestors, making a lot of wrong decisions on a daily basis. I read this book slowly while also reading other books at the same time. I wanted to digest it fully, and as the reading process went on, I started realizing the decision-making flaws in myself and other people. Finding it very interesting, I decided to write my notes about it. I believe that by practicing the right decision-making, eventually, it is easy to make good decisions fast.

Firstly, we need to understand how the decision-making process works. According to the author, we decide either logically or emotionally, and both take place in the brain. But they are not as different as I thought because apparently, most decisions are based on emotions, previous learning, beliefs, and then we use logic to justify them. That being said, first, we need to be able to recognize the cognitive biases.

These biases are the hidden traps that prevent us from thinking clearly and objectively. By understanding these biases, we can become more aware of our thought patterns and make better-informed choices.

There are more than a hundred biases in the book, I will share some of them.

The Confirmation Bias: One of the most common biases is the confirmation bias, where we tend to favor information that confirms our preexisting beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. As we hear new information, we filter everything which does not align with our beliefs. As a result, our beliefs are getting stronger as we remember information that is supporting them. Dobelli's book reminds us of the importance of seeking diverse perspectives and challenging our assumptions to arrive at well-rounded conclusions.

The Swimmer’s Body Illusion: Nassim Taleb, the author of the best-selling book "Black Swan," wanted to get fit. He contemplated taking up various sports. However, joggers seemed scrawny and unhappy, bodybuilders looked broad like an ice cream cone, and cyclists so bottom-heavy! Swimmers, though, appealed to him with their well-built, streamlined bodies. He decided to sign up at his local swimming pool and to train hard twice a week. A short while later, he realized that he had succumbed to an illusion. His body did look like a swimmer's body. Professional swimmers don’t have perfect bodies because they train extensively. Rather, they are good swimmers because of their physiques. Beauty products don’t make models attractive; rather, they are born attractive, thus selected to be a model. The same goes for female models advertising cosmetics; cosmetics are not going to make you permanently attractive, but to be a model, they are born attractive. Whenever you confuse selection factors with results, you fall prey to this bias. Whenever you are encouraged to strive for certain things, before you take the plunge, look in the mirror and be honest about what you see.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy: Have you ever held onto a failing project, relationship, or a bad investment just because you've already invested so much time or money into it? The more we invest, the greater the sunk costs are, and the greater the urge to continue becomes. This is why people are in miserable relationships, lose more money, doing something they don’t like, or dealing with lost causes. Dobelli argues that to break free from this mindset, you should always think of your assessment of the future costs and benefits, not how much you have already invested.

The Sleeper Effect: Dobelli asks, why does propaganda work? The answer is quite surprising. This was one of the most interesting biases in the book. During World War II, every nation produced propaganda movies. As they spent so much money on these, the government wanted to find out if it was worth it. A number of studies were carried out. The results were disappointing: they did not intensify the privates’ enthusiasm. Was it because they were poorly made? No, but soldiers were aware that the movies were propaganda. Even if the movie argued a point reasonably, it didn’t matter. Nine weeks later, something unexpected happened. The psychologists measured the attitudes a second time. The result: whoever had seen the movie expressed much more support for the war than those who had not viewed it. Apparently, it worked! But how? This is called the sleeper effect. Your brain quickly forgets where the information came from. Meanwhile, the message itself fades only slowly and endures. Therefore, any knowledge coming from an untrustworthy source gains credibility over time. That is why ads work so well. Be careful with what information you are allowing to enter your brain. So whenever you receive information, ask yourself, cui bono? Who benefits?

Outcome Bias (Historian Error): Once you look back, every decision looks like it makes sense. But when you are in the moment, it is not that clear. The 2008 bank crisis seems very easy to understand, but back in time, even the smartest Wall Street analysts didn’t see that coming. In conclusion, never judge a decision purely by its result, especially when randomness or external factors play a role. A bad result doesn’t mean a bad decision and vice versa. Don’t applaud yourself for a good result that may have only coincidentally led to success or don’t tear your hair out about a wrong decision. Were your reasons rational and understandable? Then you would do well to stick with that method even if you didn’t strike luck last time.

Planning Fallacy: How many times have you compiled a to-do list? How often does it happen that everything is checked off by the end of the day? For most people, it is not often. Although we learn from mistakes and improve decision-making, we somehow do not learn from the planning mistakes. Although we systematically make absurdly ambitious plans regardless of how many times they don’t happen, we don’t change this behavior. This is particularly evident when people work together - in business, science, and politics. Groups overestimate duration and benefits and systematically underestimate costs and risks. For example, the Sydney Opera House was planned in 1957: completion was due in 1963 at a cost of $7 million. It opened its doors in 1973 after $102 million had been spent - 14 times the original estimate! The problem is wishful thinking. We want to be successful in everything we take on. So how to tackle this? Look at the base rate and consult the past. If other occasions of the same type lasted three years and devoured $5 million, this will probably be your case too.

Zeigarnik Effect: In 1927, Russian psychology student Bluma Zeigarnik went to a restaurant in Berlin. She watched as the waiter took order upon order, including special requests, but did not bother to write anything down. She thought that he would forget. But after a short wait, all diners received exactly what they ordered. After dinner, she noticed that she forgot her scarf. She went back and found the waiter with the incredible memory and asked if he had seen it. He stared at her blankly. He had no idea who she was or where she sat. ‘How can you have forgotten? Especially with your super memory!” He remembers until it is served, then removes it completely. This leads her and her mentor Kurt Lewin to study this strange behavior. They found out that uncompleted tasks stay in our brain like a little kid wanting attention. Once we complete them and check them off our mental list, they are erased from memory. Zeigarnik mistakenly believed that it was necessary to complete tasks to erase them from memory. But it’s not; a good plan of action also accomplishes that. If your head is busy with to-dos, write them down in detail. ‘Organize my wife’s birthday party’ is worthless. Write down step by step what you need to do and how you will tackle them. This will silence the cacophony of inner voices.

Actionable Advice for Clear Thinking:

1. Journaling for Self-Reflection: Start a journal to record your decision-making processes, thought patterns, and emotions when facing significant choices. Regularly reviewing your entries will help you identify recurring biases, enabling you to correct them over time.
2. Seek Disconfirming Evidence: When researching a topic or making an important decision, actively seek out information that contradicts your current beliefs. Embrace dissenting opinions to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and make well-rounded choices.
3. Use the "Five Whys" Technique: When confronted with a problem, ask "why" at least five times to uncover its root cause. This method, employed by Toyota and other successful organizations, fosters a deeper analysis and clearer perspective on addressing the issue at hand.
4. Embrace Cognitive Humility: Acknowledge that we are all susceptible to cognitive biases. By being humble about our mental limitations, we can be more open to considering alternative viewpoints and avoid falling into the traps of faulty reasoning.
5. Cultivate Intellectual Curiosity: Encourage a thirst for knowledge and curiosity about the world. Engaging in continuous learning broadens our perspectives and equips us with the tools to make informed decisions.

Stories of Famous Personalities Embracing Clear Thinking:

1. Warren Buffett's Simplicity: The legendary investor, Warren Buffett, is known for his straightforward approach to decision-making. He focuses on the essential aspects of an investment, avoids overcomplicating matters, and trusts his instincts. This simple yet effective mindset has been instrumental in his unparalleled success. P.S. Warren Buffett often quoted in this book. One that stuck with me is; ‘We didn’t learn how to solve problems, we learned how to avoid them.’ By removing the obstacles, we can make success more achievable.
2. Marie Curie's Persistence: Marie Curie, the pioneering scientist, faced numerous challenges throughout her career. Despite setbacks and gender-based discrimination, she persevered in her groundbreaking research on radioactivity, leading to her becoming the first woman to win a Nobel Prize. Her unwavering determination exemplifies the power of clear thinking in pursuing one's goals.
3. Steve Jobs' Willingness to Change: Steve Jobs, the visionary co-founder of Apple Inc., was not immune to mistakes, but he possessed the ability to adapt and grow. After being ousted from Apple, Jobs reflected on his failures, honed his entrepreneurial skills, and eventually made a triumphant return, revolutionizing multiple industries with his clear vision.

Top 5 Lessons to Learn from "The Art of Thinking Clearly":

1. Learn from Failures: Instead of viewing mistakes as failures, treat them as opportunities for growth. Analyze what went wrong, understand the factors that led to the outcome, and use that knowledge to make better choices in the future.
2. Take Time for Deliberation: Resist making snap judgments and hasty decisions. Give yourself the space and time to think through important matters thoroughly. Often, a well-considered decision yields far better results than a rushed one.
3. Surround Yourself with Diverse Perspectives: Seek out diverse voices and opinions from different backgrounds and experiences. Engaging in respectful discourse with others allows us to challenge our assumptions, refine our thinking, and make more balanced choices.
4. Cultivate Intellectual Curiosity: Encourage a thirst for knowledge and curiosity about the world. Engaging in continuous learning broadens our perspectives and equips us with the tools to make informed decisions.
5. Embrace Cognitive Humility: Acknowledge that we are all susceptible to cognitive biases. By being humble about our mental limitations, we can be more open to considering alternative viewpoints and avoid falling into the traps of faulty reasoning.

Conclusion: "The Art of Thinking Clearly" is more than just a book; it's a guide to developing a crucial life skill. A reminder of the importance of honing our mental faculties to make more rational, balanced decisions. By recognizing cognitive biases, understanding probabilities, and learning from our mistakes, we can navigate through life with increased clarity and purpose. By taking actionable steps, learning from the wisdom of accomplished individuals, and internalizing the top 5 lessons, we can master the art of clear thinking. Rolf Dobelli's book offers a treasure trove of wisdom that, when applied, can significantly improve our thinking and, ultimately, our lives.