The Art Market: My Predictions for 2025

The international art market is on the brink of a monumental transformation. By the end of 2025, three major trends will reshape the industry as we know it: the fall of at least one major auction house, the closure of a leading third-party art platform, and the end of the traditional gallery model as the future moves toward advisory services.

The question isn’t whether change is coming - it’s already here. The real question is, who will survive it?

The Collapse of a Major Auction House

The auction world - once a symbol of stability in the art market- is now facing unprecedented challenges. Data from ArtTactic’s RawFacts Auction Review 2024 reported sales from Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips declining by 26% - a sharper drop following the 19% contraction seen in 2023. These economic tremors are hitting auction houses particularly hard, shaking the very foundation they’re built on.

Take Christie’s, for instance, which cancelled its June evening sales in Impressionist, 20th-century, and contemporary art, signalling market instability at the highest levels. Sotheby’s, too, is facing significant financial pressure. Rumours of deep debts, alongside reports of senior staff receiving IOUs instead of cash payments, paint a grim picture of their New Bond Street headquarters in London, which is now rumoured to be under threat.

With operational costs soaring and traditional models becoming obsolete, the clock is ticking for these historic institutions. By the end of 2025, it’s entirely plausible that one of the “Big Three” auction houses - Sotheby’s, Christie’s, or Phillips—could collapse or undergo a major restructuring.

The era of the untouchable auction house is coming to a close, and the market is watching closely to see who falters first.

The Demise of Major Art Platforms: A Digital Reckoning

While the pandemic fueled a surge in online art sales, with digital transactions growing by 7% to $11.8 billion in 2023 and accounting for 18% of the market, not all online platforms are thriving. The recent struggles of Widewalls, a once-prominent art platform, underscores the harsh reality that even the digital sphere is not immune to failure.

Early digital pioneers like Artnet and Artsy were once hailed as the future of art transactions, but they are now facing relentless competition from more agile, data-driven platforms. As the market saturates and profitability wanes, one of these major players may not survive the next two years. With rising operational costs and the constant pressure to innovate, their days of dominance are numbered.

The writing on the wall is clear: by the end of 2025, one of the major third-party platforms will collapse. The digital marketplace is evolving rapidly, and only those who can keep up will survive.

The Shift from Gallery Retail to Art Advisory Services

Perhaps the most dramatic change is happening within the gallery sector. Once the heartbeat of the art world, brick-and-mortar galleries are closing at an alarming rate due to declining foot traffic and the shift toward online sales. The pandemic only accelerated this trend, and we are now seeing its long-term effects.

In just the past year, over a dozen?of notable galleries have shut their doors.:

- JTT (August 2023) after 11 years

- Malin Gallery (August 2023), 8 years

- Foxy Production (September 2023), 20 years

- Cheim & Read (closing December 2023), 26 years

- Marlborough Gallery (closing June 2024), 78 years

These closures are not anomalies—they are a reflection of the new normal. As the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts (SPPA) shows, the number of Americans visiting museums and galleries dropped from 24% in 2017 to 18% in 2022. This decline in foot traffic, coupled with a market increasingly moving online, means the traditional gallery model is becoming obsolete.

Even major galleries are transitioning. Mitchell-Innes & Nash, for instance, recently announced the closure of its Chelsea space, shifting its focus to a “project-based advisory space.” The future of the art market isn’t retail—it’s advisory. Galleries are pivoting from public exhibitions to private, appointment-only models, catering exclusively to high-profile clients and offering curated personalized experiences.

Art advisory services will become the dominant business model, leveraging deep relationships and expertise to guide collectors. The days of relying on walk-ins and gallery showings to drive sales are over. Instead, art will be curated in private, for those willing to invest in expertise and exclusivity.

What the Future Holds: Adapt or Become Obsolete

As we look toward 2025, the message is clear: the art world is undergoing a radical transformation, and only those who can adapt will survive. The auction house model is collapsing under financial strain, digital platforms are struggling to maintain profitability, and galleries are transitioning to advisory services to keep pace with market demands.

Those who succeed will embrace these changes head-on. For auction houses, this means integrating digital strategies and revisiting their operational models. For platforms, survival will hinge on the ability to innovate and provide value beyond mere transactions. And for galleries, the future lies in personalized, relationship-driven services—not in physical spaces.

The art market is changing rapidly. The giants of today may be relics of tomorrow. The only question left is: who will adapt and who will become part of the fallout?

The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2024 - [Art Basel](https://theartmarket.artbasel.com)

Sotheby's Financial Struggles - [Yahoo News](https://www.yahoo.com/tech/sothebys-deep-debt-senior-staffers-171000872.html)

Mitchell-Innes & Nash Gallery Transition - [Observer](https://observer.com/2024/06/mitchell-innes-nash-gallery-closing-to-become-an-art-advisory/)

Gallery Closures in 2023 - [The Art Newspaper](https://www.theartnewspaper.com)

SPPA Data on Museum and Gallery Visits - [Artland](https://artland.com)