The Art of Discernment in a “Winner Takes Most” Talent Market

Hi Recruiters and TA leaders,

“Death or glory becomes just another story” — The Clash. That lyric echoes the experience of many job seekers today. In a talent market where “winner takes most,” being anything less than a top-tier candidate can feel like fighting amongst the masses for what little is left over.

Consider the following eye-opening data from the recent Workday Global Workforce Report:

• Job applications have surged by 31% year-over-year.
• Yet, job requisitions grew by only 7%.

For recruiters and candidates alike, the landscape has become paradoxical: more activity, fewer opportunities.

The “Winner Takes Most” Talent Market

Workday’s data paints a stark picture: “Organizations processed 173 million job applications in the first half of 2024, compared to just 19 million job requisitions.” AI is driving some of this, making it easier to generate resumes and send them out. But, the underlying trend is clear—top-tier talent is snapped up quickly, leaving others to compete for scraps.

This environment fuels a phenomenon highlighted in the report:

• Voluntary turnover of high-potential employees is up in 75% of the industries tracked.

I.e., top performers are increasingly being poached by competitors.

The dynamics at play are reminiscent of what’s happened in the world of online dating, where a very small percentage of users monopolize the attention of potential matches. For example, 50% of female “likes” go to just the top 10% of male users; with that top 10% of male users receiving an average of 37 likes per day as compared with 0-1 daily likes for the rest. This distribution skews the perception of the dating scene, creating significant disparities in user experiences. Sounds a bit like the job market, no?

Discernment in Action

Hiring leaders leveraging recruitment tech face a critical decision: Lean purely on algorithmic filtering to fight over the top 10%, only to lose them before they make the impact that their ‘perfect’ qualifiers promised. Or, use technology to give you better odds at finding talent matches who are not just great at gaming the algo but could also be great at growing with your org.

From the hireEZ manifesto:

“Recruiting is the most basic and most essential talent function that has ever existed. If the top candidates are not sourced, screened, hired, and onboarded, no amount of management brilliance will be able to turn the tide.”

The answer is to combine the science of technology with the art of discernment. That is the way forward.

Discernment transcends algorithms and metrics. It’s the nuanced understanding and judgment only we can bring to the table. It’s the acumen and perception to comprehend the value that might not be obvious. It’s the sum total of our experience, insight, passion, and humanity, and it’s the way recruiters and hiring teams will fulfill the mandate for hiring talent with higher odds for outsized success by being able to identify not just qualifications but also authenticity, potential, and alignment with organizational values.

Building Trust Through Discernment

In 2025, precision in hiring has never been more critical. AI can handle initial screening, ranking, and much of the back-and-forth, but devising the strategy that suits your goals and making the final hiring decisions demands human judgment. Think back to the problems with dating apps—if only seeing the “top 10%” of profiles was in the best interest of users, I reckon we’d see a lot less turmoil from those who, despite having no problem getting dates, remain single and frustrated.

In the age of AI, discernment is the most valuable skill in TA. Here are a few ways to refine it:

1. Look for candidates with unique value Redefine success beyond traditional metrics. Move past rigid checklists or thinking that the best fit is only and always who has the most experience doing the exact job you’re hiring for to recognize potential in candidates who might not check every box but can bring something new to the role. And, with the right instruction, AI can help with this, too.
2. Get more intentional with inbound As I wrote about in a previous newsletter, the goal isn’t just to attract more candidates but to attract the right ones (in fact, attracting more can sometimes work against you). This approach requires a shift in thinking: Stop trying to bring candidates together in an undefined space; start building community by sharing your culture with talent where they are. As I wrote, “When you let candidates see what the life inside your company is really like—think authentic storytelling, social media, and open events—you’ll attract people who already feel connected to your values and purpose.”
3. Focus on long-term growth potential The departure of top performers can leave critical skill gaps open within teams for extended periods of time. Remember that you’re not just hiring for immediate needs but for someone who can grow alongside the organization.

Hiring teams with strong discernment can differentiate between candidates who excel on paper and those who will thrive in practice and contribute positively to the culture. It’s a skill that becomes particularly valuable in an employers’ market, where applicants with AI-optimized resumes may look polished but lack the depth required for long-term success.

The right question to ask when hiring is shifting from that of “Who are you looking for?” to “Who are you missing out on?”.

What else is happening in hiring?

• Gen Z’s new defiance against endless rounds of interviews
• U.S. hiring announcements in 2024 lowest in nine years
• Hiring for potential over expertise

Dan’s Corner

In a talent market where everyone’s chasing the top 10 percent, the key to success isn’t doing more of the same — it’s doing more with less. That’s exactly what we’ll tackle at the next FRBR Conference on February 25th.

Join TA leaders as they share solutions for navigating 2025’s challenges, from maximizing resources to finding overlooked talent that others are missing out on.

Sign up now and let’s rethink how we win in the new year.