Arizona Real Estate Market Update

Arizona Real Estate Market Update

GREATER PHOENIX IS BACK IN A SELLER MARKET – Tracking 2015 (NOT 2021-2022)

However, recent mortgage rate increases could slow demand and push market back to balance

Rate buy downs are keeping buyers in the game and will continue to be a part of seller costs until rates and affordability reach an optimum level and/or seller equity runs out

Only a handful of Buyers’ Markets left - Buckeye, Maricopa, Queen Creek, and Goodyear

Less Downward Pressure on Price Due to Few New Listings Hitting the Market

Cash Buyers have Retreated – FHA/First Time Home Buyers Stepping Up

Owner Occupant Sales Back in Normal Range at 75%

Spring Buyer Season is Upon Us

Owners with 2yrs+ ownership still close with significant profits?

(Based on Feb Sales Price per Square Foot Measures)

+16% for 2yrs+ ownership

+58% for 4yrs+ ownership

+81% for 6yrs+ ownership

For the next 3-5 months at least, Year-Over-Year Appreciation Rates will be Negative?

Even if prices stabilize or rise because all comparisons will be from the first half of 2022, which was crazy

Only matters to sellers who have owned their homes for less than 2 years

TO GOLDMAN SACHS – In order to see ANOTHER 10% drop in price going forward, we would need to see….

Rising or Above Normal Inventory – Greater Phoenix inventory is DECLINING and is BELOW NORMAL

Declining or Below Normal Demand – Greater Phoenix Demand is below normal historically, but supply levels are lower

Rising Price Reductions – Greater Phoenix Weekly price reductions are FLAT

Rising Days on Market Prior to Contract – Greater Phoenix Days on Market are DECLINING

Leading metrics in Greater Phoenix do not support continued downward pressure on price to the same degree as the last half of 2022

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