Arise St David.

Don’t panic everyone, Christmas is not cancelled. Father Christmas’s service level might well look set to improve somewhat. Sir Dave Lewis may be in the building but has a sack full of challenges that will need all his talents and turnaround skills to navigate through. But he is the right man to help Boris.

In my view this persistent calling him “drastic” Dave is wholly unfair. What he did, alongside a top team at Tesco, steered a stuttering tanker into a purring cruise liner, and I am super proud to see that firsthand myself and be part of that particular journey.

But we are in turbulent times. We have been for a while. Availability and brilliant fundamentals of retail will once again dictate the winners and losers this Christmas. We joke how early Christmas starts in store with tubs of chocolates out on pallets even before the kids go back to school – fast start they say! - but it almost seems critical this year as there seems an air of “panic buy” and “stock up early” mentality running through our behaviour these days. Even Christmas adverts are out in force already! One wrong message though changes everything as we saw with the petrol behaviour. Retailers need to be ready or that early momentum is lost and so difficult to recover from.

With so many global shortages and increasing cost pressure out there not only for business but households too, then this could be the most difficult period to forecast and plan for we have had in a generation. Customers will want to get the family together for the first time in a couple of years and celebrate togetherness but how much will they spend? Will they throw caution to the wind or keep an eye on spend with the winter ahead? Will they buy own label vs a brand? How big will the turkey be? What will the shape of trade look like? Or is the must have present simply a holiday in the sun? I know your'e looking.

Retailers will need all their expertise to forecast and plan this. Equally if retailers don’t focus on the fundamentals then one bad shopping experience between now and the big day could mean that customer is lost to a competitor as spend increases over the coming weeks. That could make all the difference. Availability is king.

Industry collaboration will also be critical. Retailer supply chains are some of the best in the world. To manage that level of complexity and manage seismic shifts in customer behaviour is nothing short of herculean. But Sir Dave is going to have to steer a very complex problem and will need to lean on all his skills to ensure no truck or driver is wasted. Tough choices will have to be made and Sir Dave is the master at that.

Let’s not forget Halloween. Halloween could also feel quite scary this year. Many families can’t wait to get out there and celebrate but it almost feels that the shadow of Christmas looming large is a more important solution to fix for retailers and could bypass us all if we are not careful! That could be a mistake as there is growth to be had this year at Halloween.

Sir Dave Lewis in number 10 is a great call from Boris. The right man to help sort out a complex solution, but it wont be easy and will last way into 2022. Then we have the small matter of HFSS on the horizon. All interesting times ahead. Never a dull moment in retail it seems these days.

I wish Sir Dave all the best in this new role and look forward to seeing and hearing him on the podium alongside Boris and JVT very soon.