Argentina enters unchartered territory

???? #Argentina has voted - and how! Javier Milei actually did it. He will be Argentina's next president and could thereby set completely new standards even beyond the country's borders. For the first time in recent world history, a libertarian liberal, as Milei classifies himself ideologically, will take over the leadership of an important state - after all, Argentina is a member of the G20.

One must first accept this election result with humility. May others become fervid, in one direction or the other. I just try to answer my own questions and those of third parties analytically.

One thing is clear: Argentina is definitely entering unchartered territory. And the next few days, weeks and months will be very, very, very turbulent in South America's second largest economy - economically, politically and socially.

Economically, the ongoing crisis would have worsened soon even if the election outcome had been different. Now it is likely to escalate even more quickly - but then perhaps it will be overcome more sustainably.

Politically, all (!) players in #Argentina have to reorder and reposition themselves completely. This will be very exciting to observe and probably quite disruptive. At the same time, this is precisely where the greatest potential for progress lies for the country. I see the election of Javier Milei as an extremely risky, but if successful, perhaps a really lucky chance for Argentina to finally overcome the decline that has been going on for decades.

The economical recipes are all well known. Applying them in a political and somehow socially acceptable way will have to be achieved by the art of politics. It remains to be seen whether the eccentric Milei, who is considered emotionally unstable, can be the right front man for such an endeavour. In any case he should be granted at least a grace and probationary period - at home and abroad.

All Argentine governments since the last big crash in 2001 have only procrastinated real solutions and just cured symptoms. No need to list the dramatic indicators of Argentina's ongoing crisis here again.

Maybe Milei can become an effective cheerleader for truly fundamental liberal reforms. Former President Mauricio Macri, who has long supported and promoted Milei more or less openly, could be Milei's spin doctor and organizing hand in the background.

I see the greatest danger in the foreseeable street fights and the poor preparation of the Argentine security forces to deal with such events responsibly and in accordance with the rule of law.

Sociopolitical regression is also possible. But Milei will first have to build the majorities that he needs to govern and reform. In four years at the latest, Argentines will newly go to the polls. If Milei oversteps the bounds, he most probably won't even be able to stay in office for that long. Up to this point, democracy and the rule of law are not in danger in Argentina.

Cover photo: The Argentine newspaper Página/12 mocks the fact that Milei is looking for solutions to Argentina's decades-long problems in recipes "from the past". But maybe just this could allow Argentina to regain the glory of old times.