ARGENTINA: Battle looming over 2023 primary elections
Thank you for reading LatinNews' chosen article from the Latin American Weekly Report, produced since 1967. The full report can be accessed here: Latin American Weekly Report - 3 November 2022
Every two years since they were introduced by law in 2009, Argentina has been holding ‘open, simultaneous, and obligatory’ congressional primary elections, known by their Spanish acronym ‘Paso’. Now. however, a significant section of the ruling left-of-centre Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition wants to eliminate the primaries entirely ahead of next year's presidential race.
Interior Minister Eduardo ‘Wado’ de Pedro, aligned with the radical left-wing Kirchnerista faction of the FdT, which is loyal to Vice President Cristina Fernández, has been leading the charge against the Paso. He has cited at least eight reasons to do away with them. Money saved would be diverted to social programmes for drug addicts and people with disabilities. Getting rid of the Paso would reduce the number of elections next year from an excessive four to a more manageable three (one set of congressional elections and the first and second round presidential ballots). Reducing a near permanent two-year cycle of campaigning, it is claimed, would ease polarisation and promote a more mature policy debate.
De Pedro maintains that all of Argentina’s provincial governors support the move. He also wants to go further, eliminating the two-yearly congressional mid-terms (as a result both presidential and congressional elections would instead be held every four years).
Ranged against De Pedro is a significant group of politicians defending the Paso status quo. They include FdT members loyal to President Alberto Fernández, as well as almost all of the right-of-centre Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) opposition alliance. Buenos Aires city mayor and potential presidential candidate Horacio Rodríguez Larreta said dropping the primaries would be “bad”, and an underhand, last-minute way of fiddling with the rules. Public opinion may agree with him. An opinion poll by consultancy Jorge Giaccobe showed 58.9% are in favour of keeping the Paso, with 23.4% against, and 17% ‘don’t knows’.
Much of the discussion focuses on the short-term political calculations behind the headlines. Vice President Fernández has not decided whether to run again and seek a third term as president after her back-to-back 2007-2015 administrations, but she would like to control the nomination process. Her faction believes it can impose its preferred candidates through internal negotiations. In addition, without the distraction of primaries there will be more time, it is claimed, for an economic recovery to improve the FdT’s electability.
The faction aligned behind President Fernández, on the other hand, sees its interests best served by keeping the Paso. Fernández has not ruled out seeking re-election, although his chances are poor. Levels of trust are low: the Albertistas clearly prefer open primaries as a more reliable way of measuring relative electoral strengths.
With 12 months to go before the presidential elections both main coalitions are already facing internal division and disunity over candidate selection. Tensions within the opposition JxC spilled into the open this week with a viral social media video in which Patricia Bullrich, a former security minister and hard-right presidential hopeful, is seen ticking off Felipe Miguel, a member of the Buenos Aires city government led by her rival Rodríguez Larreta, in a threatening and expletive-laden diatribe.
The long simmering dispute between the two relates to the city police’s handling of demonstrations outside the vice president’s house two months ago. Bullrich, who likes to cultivate a ‘hard woman’ image, has refused to apologise. Her supporters are selling T-shirts emblazoned with the phrase ‘conmigo no se jode’ she directed at Miguel.
The reality is that the two main coalitions are both in a position of weakness. The FdT’s problem is that both the president and vice president have high disapproval ratings with the electorate at large, although the latter retains a core support base. The JxC, on the other hand, is torn between centrist leaders such as Rodríguez Larreta and the fear of losing votes to the rising ‘libertarian right’ represented by outsider politicians like Javier Milei. Milei, from the far right La Libertad Avanza party, dismisses the “political caste” and has said his deputies will boycott discussions on eliminating the Paso. In practical terms that means the Kirchneristas will struggle to get any changes approved.????????????
De Pedro wavers. To confuse matters even more, Interior Minister Eduardo de Pedro, who originally brought forward the idea, seemed to backtrack, or at least waver, somewhat, perhaps under pressure from President Fernández or in the face of the strong rejection of opposition parties. “I’m not working to eliminate the Paso, I’m a minister who works at the will of the president,” De Pedro insisted. “What I’m saying is that there are legislative proposals…to suppress the [primaries].”
Lula. Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández celebrated the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential run-off, flying to S?o Paulo to meet his fellow leftist leader. “[Lula’s] victory ushers in a new era for the history of Latin America. A time of hope and future that begins today,” Fernández said on Twitter. “Here you have a partner to work with and dream big with for the well-being of our nations.” Despite the poor political relationship between Fernández and Brazil’s present incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro, trade between Argentina and Brazil bounced back to US$21.6bn in the first nine months of the year compared with US$16.9bn during the same period a year earlier.
Thank you for reading LatinNews' chosen article from the Latin American Weekly Report, produced since 1967. The full report can be accessed here: Latin American Weekly Report - 3 November 2022
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