#AreWeBuildingCastlesInTheCloud?

(Man, behind the machine: are we running out of fallback options for life continuity in case of multiple disasters striking at the same time? If yes, why not re-boot our thought processes and go back to the drawing board? Let us design for sustainability.)

First, the disaster strikes. COVID-19 has created some disruption and human responses are also being calibrated to combat that.

First response by Government of India: lockdown in phases for over two continuous months completing on 31st May 2020 for me here in Kolkata, India. Unthinkable just two months before, right? But that has happened.

Somehow, things are getting relaxed a bit with a certain restriction in places at certain pockets. For India, luckily, the outbreak could be contained for those months.

Meanwhile, quite a few organizations have ensured that their employees can attend office work from home using secured internet access.

Academic institutions are conducting online classes over audio and video conferencing.

People are doing online banking and a little of e-commerce, again courtesy Internet access and government reducing restrictions on home deliveries.

Telecom networks are carrying essential voice and data traffic that connects the world.

Large hardware installations scattered across the globe are providing cloud infrastructure for any applications to be hosted and used worldwide.

Out of the blue, a second disaster strikes.

On 20th May 2020, cyclone Amphan strikes. It devastated part of the Indian States of Odisha & West Bengal and part of Bangladesh. Sixty million people were affected, several lives lost, residences damaged, trees uprooted, electricity polls damaged. Standing crops damaged, saline water entered paddy fields after breaching river embankments. Power supply got interrupted, no telephone and internet connectivity for some time now because of major damages to basic infrastructure in certain geography ravaged by the cyclone.

Now, let us superimpose the effects of the above two disasters, one on top of the other. You may find complete disconnection of the locked-down people from the rest of the world at least for one or two days, if not more. Of course, essential services are getting restored. The administration was working round the clock. But the isolation and the disconnect are real for now. Somebody has lost shelter, needs immediate relief. A question of basic existence. Somebody wanted to take part in an overseas call with his or her client. That could not be attended to, resulting in a loss of opportunity.

The current goings-on gives me another queer thought which is natural.

Please forgive me for calling bad omen, but someone needs to talk about it. This time, it is me.

Let us assume that the present pandemic disaster persists for a year before receding. This is the first disaster. During its tenure, we have also seen the second disaster, a ravaging cyclone in South East Asia. Now, I am hypothetically assuming occurrences of few more events further. Here is a scenario that may not be far-fetched. Please read on.

God forbid, if there is another third disaster, say an earthquake, that may hit at the same time. Let us assume that this third disaster damages some key physical infrastructure of the cloud service providers at multiple geographies. Where do we land up?

And, God forbid, if because of some celestial phenomena, a fourth disaster takes place. Because of that, the geosynchronous and polar satellites in and around earth may become inoperative, on top of the above three disasters, which have already occurred, what happens?

And, God forbid, a fifth disaster takes place. Some volcanic eruptions at the ocean bed damages a few under-water transoceanic, long-haul communication cables. What happens? Communications traffic gets disrupted. It pulls down the entire command-and-control regime on which our present-day civilization thrives.

Everything may come to a standstill. One may ask, what are the chances? I would say, Nature does not follow our rule of chances.

Back to the initial headline: are we building castles in the cloud?

Let us revisit the issue:

If we cannot get access to electricity supply, telephone service (both land phone and mobile), no internet, no online applications, no front-office, and back-office operations services which are hosted on cloud infrastructure, no email services, no e-tailing, no online banking, no e-commerce, physical retail stores find their stock replenishment logistics crippled for lack of connectivity, what happens?

Should we wait till everything is up and running again in stages? That may be a long time.

Consider this scenario. Say, we have been discussing scheduling supply chain of life sciences vertical in such a way that a pace-maker is ordered with a minimum lead time from a renowned overseas OEM. The item is manufactured just in time. Then it is transported through complex logistics under a controlled environment across international borders through multiple modes. Then the item is tracked over satellite and the article is delivered directly to the hospital operation theatre just-in-time. The doctor is ready to transplant the device to a patient as per the pre-defined schedule. Everything is meticulously planned, with no extra production, no extra inventory, lean and thin manufacturing, all shipments reaching on an exact schedule, stringent SLA's for failure, etc. No inventory stockpiles, no extra idle production capacity, no extra workforce. A fantastic cloud-hosted highly optimized supply chain service. A marvelous idea, right? 

No, sorry, it is a wrong idea.

Consider the scenario. Say, the disasters strike, first number one, then number two, next number three, number four, number five, all in quick succession. Everything goes for a toss. What happens to the patient?

Today, cricket-loving nations are in disarray. India’s latest version of the Indian Premier League–T20 Cricket (IPL) is moved out of India. The Tokyo Olympic Games 2020 is rescheduled. World over, school and college education schedules are in disarray. Lots of opportunities are already lost.

Disruptions all around. COVID-19 has already caught us napping. Then the cyclone has put a body blow to our part of the world. There may be many such dislocations of services happening everywhere. Aviation, hospitality, and tourism industries were not ready for such eventualities. Any event involving mass gathering is suspended.

Our existing social order is on the verge of collapsing. We are learning to greet people by adopting Indian-style “Namaste” with folded hands from a distance rather than shaking hands.

What does it mean?

Are we designing products and services based on a steady-state infrastructure that is fragile?

Do we have governance models in various countries that perhaps have taken some more time than necessary to perceive the impending danger of COVID-19 and decisively act resulting in large-scale loss of life because of virus attack in certain geographies?

Did world medical research deliver? Did we fail in strengthening our immunity?

What advancements in science and technology are we boasting about that fall short of delivering in a crunch situation?

Have we stopped asking questions? Have we stopped learning from the past?

Have we been violating peaceful coexistence norms with our nature’s ecosystem?

Do we lack alternate plans for mitigating any crisis that is overpowering us?

Have we made our systems too complex and not sustainable in near future?

Have we failed to work out a life continuity plan?

Should we now start simplifying our lifestyle?

Should we now try to make peace with Mother Nature?

Should we start serious introspection on what has gone wrong?

Are United Nations and individual member nations looking beyond steady-state and working on a life continuity plan in case of a pandemic coupled with other disasters striking simultaneously?

Our conventional wisdom might have failed us. Let us reboot our thought processes and go back to the drawing board once again. Let us design for long-haul sustainability.

Till then, should we stop building castles in the cloud?

Note: Please also read the article in the below document link that proposes an alternate approach:

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/wehaveacaseforanewlifecontinuitymodel-aniruddha-sarkar

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