Arctic Strategy Implementation Plan and Arctic Shipping Viability

This week's edition focuses on the implementation plan of the US National Arctic Strategy and features various publications related to Arctic shipping, including those along the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route.

US National Arctic Strategy 2022: Implementation Plan Revealed

The "Implementation Plan for the 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic Region" was released at the end of October 2023. It outlines US strategic objectives and actions to be taken in two main pillars: security and climate change/environmental protection.

• Regarding security, the document emphasizes the need to maximize cooperation with Arctic allies and partners to enhance shared security and deter aggression in the Arctic, especially from Russia. It also states that the United States will enhance and exercise both military and civilian capabilities in the Arctic as required to deter threats and to anticipate, prevent, and respond to both natural and human-made incidents. The plan mentions the risks of further militarization or unintended conflict resulting from geopolitical tensions with Russia or the People’s Republic of China
• The document stresses the importance of addressing climate change and protecting the environment by boosting resilience, adapting to changes, and cutting emissions. It acknowledges that the Arctic is impacted harder by climate change than many other places, causing unstable terrain, vulnerable coasts and ecosystems, and a worsening biodiversity crisis. A key climate-related priority is cutting down on short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon and methane, which can speed up Arctic warming. The document outlines plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic as part of global efforts, invest in scientific research, and preserve Arctic ecosystems. It also emphasizes the need to help Alaskan communities cope with the significant changes expected in the Arctic.

The document underscores the importance of investing in infrastructure in Alaska to support responsible development, food security, stable housing, climate resilience, and national defense needs. It emphasizes the necessity of investing in advanced telecommunications infrastructure, including broadband and 5G, for Alaska Native and rural communities. Specific metrics for infrastructure deployment, such as mapping areas lacking broadband access and increasing access to high-speed internet services, are outlined. The document also mentions the exploration of opportunities for public-private partnerships and innovative financing mechanisms.

Each part of the plan has specific activities supported by programs overseen by Federal entities. The document highlights the importance of Federal, State, and local agencies collaborating to define roles, ensuring full government support and fairness. Although the document does not list the specific agencies involved, it mentions that the money to support the plan's activities will be decided through the regular budget process, considering national priorities and the availability of funds.

Redefining the Northwest Passage: A Holistic Approach

The paper titled "‘One Map to Rule Them All’? Revisiting Legalities Through Cartographic Representations of the Northwest Passage, " authored by Apostolos Tsiouvalas and Jan Jakub Solski, was published in the Ocean Development & International Law Journal on November 8, 2023. It is an interesting and thought-provoking paper on the legal issues associated with the Northwest Passage using both Western and Indigenous worldviews. Canada limits free navigation in the Northwest Passage due to its claim of sovereignty over the waters. According to the paper, the United States and the European Community contest Canada's sovereignty over the Northwest Passage. Similarly, Russia also invokes Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) on the Northern Sea Route, which allows coastal states to regulate navigation.

Western worldview

Historically, maps have been used to claim territory in the Northwest Passage by illustrating the region as a "blank space" on maps, thereby opening new avenues for sovereign claims and colonial expansion. Throughout the history of the Passage, mapping space became a powerful tool for the territorial dispossession of Indigenous communities and the establishment of European authority in their traditional homelands. European nations have been using cartography as a technology of planning that legitimated the establishment of state sovereignty through "lines" upon land and sea and demarcated borders and jurisdictions

Inuit worldview

The Inuit have their own unique conceptualizations of and relationships with Arctic marine spaces in Canada. The Inuit cartography and spatial thinking offer different ways of thinking about the surrounding world, ones that are more relational and holistic and that understand space as not merely an object of state dominion and human activities

The Inuit understanding of the Northwest Passage is based on their traditional use and occupancy of the region, which encompasses all terrestrial, marine, and ice-covered areas.

The Inuit consider the land, water, and sea ice to be interconnected and "integral to their culture and way of life".

The Inuit Nunangat map, created by the Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami (ITK), demonstrates this interconnectedness and challenges dominant conceptions of space (see above).

The authors suggest that thinking of the Northwest Passage as part of the Inuit Nunangat may allow for a comprehensive holistic conceptualization of space that erases Western dichotomies, bridges water, sea ice, and land in accordance with the Inuit way of life, and replaces ontologies of power and control with ontologies of "being" in and with nature

Arctic Shipping Viability Questioned

Sergey Gulev, a climatologist associated with the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, cast doubt on the optimistic notion of the Arctic becoming a navigable route due to melting ice. In discussing the potential improvements in shipping conditions in the Arctic due to climate change, Gulev emphasized that the region will not be permanently free of ice. He pointed out that there will be periods with less ice, leading to an extended summer navigation period. However, he expressed reservations about the permanent use of the Arctic as a long-term navigation route, citing the uncertainty of such conditions.

Gulev raised concerns about the financial viability of Arctic shipping, emphasizing the need for preparedness for risks. He also highlighted infrastructure challenges, stating that existing ports are in poor condition and built on permafrost. In an interview with "Ecology of Russia," Gulev cautioned against overly optimistic views about the timing and feasibility of the Arctic becoming a navigable route for shipping. (Source: here )

A Critical Analysis of the Northern Sea Route

The new report "The Northern Sea Route in the Context of the Arctic Development " authored by Dr. Yuri Ampilov, a Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences and a professor, and Dr. Mikhail Grigoryev, a candidate of geological and mineralogical sciences and a member of the scientific council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the study of the Arctic and Antarctica provides an analysis of NSR and Arctic development

The report critically examines the development plans for the Northern Sea Route and discusses the challenges associated with the "Vostok Oil" project by Rosneft. The authors express scepticism about the emphasis on hydrocarbon transportation in the Arctic, especially in light of the uncertainties surrounding the implementation of "Vostok Oil," which has been delayed until 2036. They argue for a shift in focus towards exploring and extracting rare-earth minerals in the Arctic region, emphasizing their importance in the energy transition.

The document highlights economic inefficiencies in LNG projects, citing significant tax incentives and the predominantly government-funded infrastructure development for the Northern Sea Route. The report suggests a need to reevaluate ambitious plans for Arctic development and the Northern Sea Route per changing global dynamics.

Geopolitical Risks on the Northern Sea Route

The report "Northern Sea Route: Geopolitical Risks" prepared by N.Trans Lab, an independent information-analytical and educational project discusses geopolitical risks associated with the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), focusing on the freedom of navigation and the removal of national restrictions. The key geopolitical risk identified is the increasing desire of interested countries to remove the NSR from Russian national control, potentially placing it under "external management" by a leading economic and military power such as the United States or China. The text suggests that countering this risk involves diplomatic, economic, and military measures. However, due to the prolonged and complex nature of the current geopolitical situation, the effectiveness of these measures is uncertain. Concerns are raised about the likelihood of successfully implementing the NSR development plan by 2035, considering economic factors, including project profitability and the overall program's viability.

The impact of anti-Russian economic sanctions, growing country-specific risks, and anticipated long-term decreases in hydrocarbon demand exacerbate challenges in forming an adequate cargo base and increase the risks of delays or difficulties in implementing individual infrastructure development projects. The text emphasizes the importance of the NSR as a national transportation route for Russia, particularly in developing Arctic natural resources and establishing control over resource transportation routes. The conclusion analyzes potential scenarios for the future geopolitical situation around the Arctic and the NSR, assessing the probability and desirability of each based on national interests.

Survey

I kindly request a moment of your time to fill out this questionnaire, as your insights are invaluable in shaping the direction of my research. Your participation will contribute to a greater understanding of the Arctic's future.

Link to the Survey

Your responses will be kept confidential and will solely be used for research purposes. Your contribution is greatly appreciated, and I thank you in advance for your support!

Yours,

Alexandra Middleton