Arctic Council's work in Virtual Format, Radiation from Permafrost, and Arctic Tourism Challenges.

Dear readers.

Welcome to Arctic Highlights! This week, I cover the following topics:

1. Arctic Council Resumes Work: Virtual meetings of Working Groups will restart, addressing climate change and sustainable development.
2. Permafrost Risks: Thawing permafrost releases greenhouse gases, viruses, and potentially radioactive radon gas.
3. Arctic Tourism Challenges: Unregulated tourism in Murmansk leads to overcrowding, littering, noise, property damage, and cultural disrespect.
4. NSR Development: 158 large Arctic ships are needed by 2040, with ongoing icebreaker and cargo traffic considerations.

Arctic Council resumes work at Working Groups level

The Arctic Council, a forum for cooperation among Arctic nations, has decided to gradually resume virtual meetings of its working groups. The decision for the Arctic Council to resume virtual Working Group meetings was reached on February 28, 2024, This is the first step towards resuming work since official meetings were paused in March 2022. The goal is to improve collaboration and address issues like climate change and sustainable development. Meetings will be virtual for the next 3–4 months, then the format will be reviewed. Indigenous Permanent Participants support the decision, emphasizing the importance of their participation.

Thawing Permafrost in the Arctc: A New Source of Radioactive Risk

We already know that thawing permafrost is realizing greenhouse gases, dormant viruses and now there is evidence of radiation release from permafrost. The recent article “Potential radon risk in permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere under climate change: A review” by Zhang et al. (2024) uncovers the dangers of radon gas in permafrost regions, particularly those with uranium deposits. Radon is a radioactive gas that can cause lung cancer. Permafrost, which is permanently frozen ground, can act as a natural barrier to radon gas, preventing it from entering homes and buildings. However, permafrost degradation, caused by climate change, is weakening this barrier and allowing more radon gas to migrate.

The authors of this article specifically focus on permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including Russia, Canada, and China. They studied existing research on radon concentration, uranium deposits, and permafrost degradation in these regions. They found that areas with high concentrations of uranium deposits are more likely to have high levels of radon gas. Additionally, permafrost degradation increases the risk of radon exposure in these areas.

The authors conclude that more research is needed to understand the full extent of the radon risk in permafrost regions. They also recommend developing strategies to mitigate this risk, such as improving ventilation in homes and buildings.

Dark Side of Tourism Boom in Murmansk

Murmansk is experiencing several problems due to unregulated tourism, including:

Overcrowding: The city's population is only about 300,000, but it is now receiving over 1 million tourists per year, many arriving from Asian countries. This has put a strain on the city's infrastructure, which is not designed to handle such a large number of people.

Littering: Some tourists leave behind trash, which is creating a problem for the city. The city has increased the number of trash cans, but it is still not enough to keep up with the amount of trash that is being left behind.

Noise: Some tourists are being loud and disruptive, which is disturbing the peace for residents. The city has increased the number of police officers patrolling tourist areas, but it is still difficult to control the noise.

Property damage: Some tourists damage property, such as by carving their names into trees. The city has increased the number of security guards at tourist attractions, but it is still difficult to prevent all damage.

Disrespect for local culture: Some tourists do not respect local customs and traditions. The city has launched a campaign to educate tourists about local culture, but it is still a problem.

These problems are hurting the city and its residents. It also damages the city's reputation as a tourist destination. The city is taking some steps to address these problems, such as increasing the number of trash cans and hiring more police officers to patrol tourist areas. However, more needs to be done to regulate tourism and ensure that tourists are respectful of the city and its residents. This further highlights the need to balance tourism growth in the Arctic with sustainability principles.

(Source: here)

Over 158 large Arctic ships are needed for NSR

In interview, Sergey Buyanoy, General Director of the Krylov State Research Center outlined plans for the development of NSR.

Key Takeaways:

Vessel Demand

The NSR development plan necessitates a significant increase in vessels, with projections indicating a need for 158 large Arctic ships by 2040. The Zvezda shipyard is expected to be the primary construction site, but locations for the remaining vessels remain undecided.

Icebreaker Requirements

While the exact number of icebreakers required for year-round navigation is dependent on various factors like ice conditions and cargo development, the interview emphasizes their critical role in ensuring smooth operations. The interview mentions that the number of icebreakers needed depends on several factors, including:

Type of ice navigation: Light, medium, or heavy ice conditions require different capabilities from icebreakers.

Availability of Arctic transport ships: More Arctic vessels could potentially lessen the reliance on icebreakers.

Cargo development: Increased cargo traffic might necessitate more icebreaker support.

Cargo Traffic Projections

The most realistic forecast anticipates a steady rise in cargo traffic, with projections reaching 36 million tons in 2023, 90 million tons in 2024, and culminating in 238 million tons by 2035. These figures highlight the significant growth potential of the NSR.

Challenges and Opportunities

Buyanoy acknowledges the challenge of attracting and retaining young talent amidst an increased workload due to the departure of foreign companies. However, the institute's targeted efforts at leading maritime universities like Makarov State Maritime University and Korabel Shipbuilding Institute demonstrate their commitment to fostering future generations of maritime specialists.

Tanker Saga for Novatek's Arctic LNG-2

Located on the Gydan Peninsula in the Arctic, the Arctic LNG-2 project is operated by NOVATEK, a Russian independent gas producer. Its primary objective is the production of LNG for export to Asian markets.

Key facts:

• 15 tankers of Arc7 ice class were ordered for the project.
• The project is expected to produce 19.8 million tons of LNG per year.
• The total cost of the project is estimated at $25.5 billion.
• The first train of the project started production in December 2023.
• The second train is expected to start production in 2024.

In an interview Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University and a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund presented his assessment of the situation surrounding the Arctic LNG-2 project.

The article discusses the challenges faced by the Arctic LNG-2 project in obtaining tankers for its liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation. The project is under US sanctions, which prohibit companies from interacting with it. Three tankers were ordered from South Korean companies, but their delivery was delayed due to sanctions. Six more tankers were ordered in South Korea, but their ownership and future use are uncertain due to sanctions. The expert suggests that NOVATEK, the project operator, will seek workarounds to transfer the ownership of the tankers to non-sanctioned entities. China is seen as a potential buyer of LNG from Arctic LNG-2, as it may be willing to ignore US sanctions.

Dear readers,

Next week we have a skiing week in Finland, so it is a great time to enjoy Arctic nature!

Yours,

Alexandra Middleton