The Arctic Abundance of Greenland: The Last Frontier of Power and America's Race to Secure it

How the arctic’s melting ice, rare earth riches, and a new Cold War are making the world’s largest island a must win in the most contested territory on Earth

It’s a bitter cold day in January as Greenland’s arctic winds howl over the snow-blasted terrain of Pituffik Space Base (Thule Air Base). The sun, when it appears, casts an eerie glow over the icy wasteland, where temperatures plummet to -50°F in winter and the sun never sets in summer. The quiet hum of the US Military’s northernmost installation ushers in a new chapter in a very old story of American influence. It is a story that spans nearly a century—one of spies and satellites, bombers and ice-covered bunkers, of secret nuclear projects buried beneath glaciers, and of one enduring American obsession: control of the Arctic’s largest island, Greenland. Here, beyond the Arctic Circle, America has kept a watchful eye on its adversaries for decades. But today, the stakes have never been higher.

A LONG HISTORY OF COVETING GREENLAND

America’s fixation with Greenland dates back to the Second World War. When Nazi Germany occupied Denmark in 1940, Washington, sensing an opportunity, stepped in to “protect” Greenland. The U.S. military quickly set up airfields and radar installations, laying the groundwork for a long-term presence. After the war, Denmark sought to reclaim control, but by then, the Pentagon had no intention of leaving.

The Cold War turned Greenland into an indispensable military asset. The United States constructed Thule Air Base in 1951, a vast and secretive installation designed to host nuclear-armed bombers and early warning radar systems to detect Soviet ICBMs. Beneath the ice, America had even wilder plans. In the 1960s, under Project Iceworm, the Pentagon attempted to build a network of tunnels that could house mobile nuclear missiles beneath Greenland’s ice cap. The plan collapsed—both literally and figuratively—when the shifting ice made the tunnels unstable.

But the most infamous moment came in 1968, when a B-52 bomber carrying four hydrogen bombs crashed near Thule Air Base. The impact scattered radioactive debris over the ice, triggering a frenzied cleanup operation. One of the bombs, some say, was never fully recovered. It remains an enduring legend, a ghost buried somewhere beneath the Arctic snow.

TODAY

It is January 2025. And while America prepares for the transition of another Trump presidency, the real estate mogul-turned-politician is reviving an old dream—one that dates back to World War II, the Cold War, and even as early as the administration of Andrew Johnson in 1868 where both Greenland and Iceland were nearly in America’s grasp. Back in 1946, officials offered Denmark $100 million in gold bars for the world’s largest island, a Danish autonomous territory. U.S. officials at the time thought it was a “military necessity.”

“We need it for national security.” — Donald Trump

"We need it for national security," Trump said in a press conference, refusing to rule out the use of military force to take control of the island—an audacious, almost imperial proposition that has sent shockwaves through Europe and beyond.

Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., had already landed in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, just days earlier, sporting a “Make Greenland Great Again” hat. The message was clear: this wasn’t a joke—it was a play for power, minerals, and military dominance at the edge of the world.

THE STRATEGIC HEART OF THE ARCTIC

For much of history, Greenland was a desolate, ice-covered backwater. But the Arctic is changing, and fast. The ice is melting at twice the global average, and with that, new shipping routes are emerging, rare earth minerals are becoming accessible, and the world’s most powerful nations are racing for control.

Russia’s Arm’s Race in the Arctic

Russia has reopened dozens of Soviet-era military bases, expanding its Arctic presence with nuclear-powered icebreakers and strategic bomber patrols. As of right now, Russia's military dominance in the Arctic surpasses NATO's, with Russian bases inside the Arctic Circle outnumbering NATO’s by about a third.

Since 2005, Russia has reopened numerous Soviet-era Arctic bases, modernized its navy, and developed hypersonic missiles, including the Zircon, capable of reaching nine times the speed of sound.

Russia’s new Zircon Hypersonic Missile: Impossible to shoot down?

Russia has also expanded its naval fleet with 11 submarines capable of launching long-range nuclear weapons, eight of which are based in the Arctic Kola Peninsula. The Kola Peninsula, located just east of Norway, offers direct access to the North Atlantic and Arctic waters, providing Russian submarines with a strategic launch position for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and advanced cruise missiles. As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Arctic, Russia’s growing submarine force on the Kola Peninsula underscores its ambition to solidify control over this strategically vital region while maintaining a formidable nuclear deterrent.

Another element worth noting is Russia has the world’s largest fleet of icebreakers, with seven nuclear-powered and around 30 diesel-powered vessels, compared to the U.S. and China's two each.

The U.S. and NATO are increasing Arctic investments, but experts estimate it would take the West at least a decade to match Russia's military presence in the region.

China’s Ambitions for Arctic Statehood

China has been aggressively expanding its footprint in the Arctic, despite being geographically distant from the region. The country has framed itself as a "near-Arctic state" and aims to become a "polar great power" by 2030. Its Arctic strategy is underpinned by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the country’s global infrastructure development strategy — motivated by scientific, economic, and strategic objectives, with strong indications of military and intelligence interests.

Beijing has boosted its economic presence in the area, including investment in mining operations in Greenland. China’s ambitions to expand its control over rare-earth mining in the Arctic have encountered significant political and geopolitical hurdles, particularly in Greenland. Chinese company Shenghe Resources Holding Co. acquired a 12.5% stake in Greenland Minerals in 2016 (later diluted to 9%) to develop a massive rare-earths and uranium mine in southern Greenland, expected to supply 10% of global rare earths. China has already invested $99 million in the project, which was projected to generate $200 million annually in tax revenue for Greenland. The U.S. and Denmark have actively countered China's Arctic ambitions, blocking previous Chinese attempts to purchase a naval base, build a research antenna, and finance Greenland’s airport infrastructure, citing security risks — a breakdown can be found below:

America’s Defense Stronghold in the Arctic

The U.S. sees Greenland as a key part of its Arctic strategy, with Pituffik Space Base playing a crucial role in missile defense, space surveillance, and deterring Russian and Chinese expansion.

The Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) in Greenland is a cornerstone of U.S. military and space operations in the Arctic. Situated 700 miles north of the Arctic Circle, it provides a strategic vantage point for missile defense, space surveillance, and satellite communications.

The base hosts the 12th Space Warning Squadron (12 SWS), which operates a solid-state phased-array radar system capable of detecting ballistic missile launches aimed at the U.S. and Canada. It also provides early warning capabilities through NORAD and supports the Missile Warning Center. Additionally, the 23rd Space Operations Squadron, Detachment 1, or the Pituffik Tracking Station, conducts over 15,000 satellite contacts annually, supporting military and allied government satellites for surveillance, navigation, and communication.

In many ways, Greenland sits at the center of a New Cold War—one waged not just with military might but with economic pressure, technological competition, and diplomatic maneuvering.

RARE EARTHS, OIL, AND THE MINERAL WAR WITH CHINA

Beyond its strategic location, Greenland holds something even more valuable: rare earth minerals (REEs)—the essential building blocks of modern technology, from iPhones, renewable energy assets, fighter jets and SpaceX rockets.

Today, China controls nearly 90% of the world’s rare earth supply. Greenland, however, holds an estimated 2 million tons of these materials—one of the largest untapped reserves on the planet — second only to China's Bayan Obo deposit. If the U.S. and its allies could develop Greenland’s mining industry, it could break China’s stranglehold on critical minerals. With global rare earth consumption exceeding 100,000 metric tons annually and China currently controlling 95% of exports, securing alternative sources is urgent as China's domestic demand is projected to surpass 130,000 metric tons per year. Greenland, with an exposed landmass the size of California, offers a viable alternative, especially after Denmark lifted its 1988 ban on radioactive mining in 2013, opening the door for extraction. Mining in Greenland could not only reduce dependency on China, lower prices, and boost employment in a region with 10% unemployment, but also provide materials critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, rechargeable batteries, and nuclear batteries.

Already, American-backed firms are moving in. The Pentagon has worked behind the scenes to block Chinese companies from investing in Greenland’s infrastructure, successfully preventing Beijing from financing new airports in 2018. Anglo American, a British mining giant, has staked out swaths of an island believed to have lucrative deposits of nickel, essential for most electric car batteries. KoBold Metals, a Silicon Valley-backed firm supported by Bill Gates and Andreessen Horowitz, has been using AI-driven prospecting to locate Greenland’s richest deposits. And publicly traded company Critical Resources Corp founded by Greg Barnes and Tony Sage owns Tanbreez Rare Earth mine, the leading Rare Earth Mine in the country rumored to have leading billionaires from the US behind it.

Mr. Barnes may have unwittingly played a role in prompting Donald J. Trump to float the idea of buying Greenland while he was president. Word that Mr. Trump wanted to acquire the island from Denmark emerged soon after Mr. Barnes visited the White House in 2019 to brief officials on Greenland’s potential.

But mining in Greenland comes with challenges. The island’s harsh climate, lack of infrastructure, and deep-seated concerns about environmental impact make large-scale extraction difficult. And then there’s the biggest question: Who gets to decide Greenland’s future?

GREENLAND’S QUEST FOR INDEPENDENCE

For all the great power rivalry swirling around Greenland, the island’s people want something else entirely: independence.

A semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, Greenland has been pushing for full sovereignty for years. But it faces an economic Catch-22: it depends on Denmark for nearly $600 million in annual subsidies, with few industries beyond fishing to sustain an independent economy.

The rise of rare earth mining, along with closer economic ties to the U.S., could give Greenland the financial means to break away from Denmark once and for all. But the prospect of becoming an independent nation also raises fears of being swept into a new kind of colonialism—one dictated by the strategic interests of Washington, Moscow, and/or Beijing.

Prime Minister Múte Egede, a staunch advocate for independence, has made Greenland’s stance clear: "We are not for sale." But in the halls of power in Washington, Beijing, and Moscow, the future of Greenland is a battle that here merely just begun.

THE COMING CLASH IN THE ARCTIC

As the world barrels toward an era of great-power conflict in the Arctic, Greenland is no longer just an icy outpost—it is a battleground for the future of global power and economic influence.

• If Russia continues its Arctic militarization, the U.S. will expand its military presence in Greenland.
• If China keeps pushing its "Polar Silk Road" strategy, Greenland may become a flashpoint in a new U.S.-China economic war.
• And if Greenland pursues full independence, the island could find itself caught between superpowers vying for control.

Trump’s rhetoric may have sounded extreme to the international community, but the underlying logic is sound. The U.S. and its allies cannot afford to lose Greenland. The island is too strategically important, too rich in resources, and too vital to American defense to be left vulnerable to foreign influence.

In 1946, President Harry Truman tried to buy Greenland from Denmark for $100 million in gold. Denmark said no. Almost 80 years later, the United States is still trying.

And now, as the ice melts and the world changes, the question is no longer whether America wants Greenland—but how far will it go and how far will you and I go to ensure it remains in the hands of the West.

The Ice Fortress of the Future

For now, Greenland remains part of Denmark. But that could change within a decade. The world is shifting, and Greenland sits at the center of it all.

If the Arctic is the final frontier of global power, Greenland is its crown jewel. And in the great game of nations, it is a prize no superpower can afford to ignore.

Sources

1. Julian Dossett, "What is the US Space Force doing in Greenland?" Space, January 10, 2025. Link
2. Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen & Gwladys Fouche, "Russia has more Arctic military bases than NATO - why it matters," Reuters, November 16, 2022. Link
3. Melanie Burton & Ernest Scheyder, "US lobbied Greenland rare earths developer Tanbreez not to sell to China," Reuters, January 9, 2025. Link
4. Stacy Meichtry & Drew Hinshaw, "China’s Greenland Ambitions Run Into Local Politics, U.S. Influence," Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2021. Link
5. Matthew P. Funaiole et al., Frozen Frontiers: China’s Great Power Ambitions in the Polar Regions, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), April 18, 2023. Link
6. Georgi Kantchev, "Why Trump Wants Greenland," Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2025. Link
7. Christina Lu, "Trump's Greenland Bid Cites U.S. National Security, Arctic Defense," Foreign Policy, January 9, 2025. Link
8. Jonathan Chait, "The Intellectual Rationalization for Annexing Greenland," The Atlantic, January 10, 2025. Link
9. Jennifer Spence & Elizabeth Hanlon, "Explainer: The Geopolitical Significance of Greenland," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, January 16, 2025. Link