Arab climate futures: of risks and readiness

Although the Middle East and North Africa has contributed only 3 % of total global CO2 emissions since 1850, it will be one of the world regions hit the hardest by climate change.

Unless a technological breakthrough occurs quickly that will make it possible to capture the carbon already present in the atmosphere in a safely managed and cost-effective way, temperatures in the region are certain to increase by around 2 °C between 2021 and 2039, with a possible maximum increase of 2.5 °C during summer and autumn.

This means that climate change will affect the region severely even if emissions are cut according to the Paris Agreement.

The bad news

As temperatures increase, water evaporates: it is sucked up by the air. Water is therefore the first victim of climate change. All other first order effects of climate change in the region are more or less the consequence of what climate change does to water. In the Arab world, water is already a rare commodity even without climate change. Water stress is a common problem: a study has shown that in 2019, 13 of the world’s 20 most water-stressed countries were located here.

Climate change alone is not to blame: water mismanagement, too, plays a role, as well as demographic growth. Algeria, Iraq, Morocco and Tunisia, for instance, will be impacted by water shortage regardless of the scenario. The region is already highly dependent on food imports, and will struggle even more to meet its food needs as agricultural output will decrease as a result of water shortages. 8 % of total Iraqi, Lebanese and Syrian arable land, for instance, will be lost.

Looking further into the future, disasters such as floods caused by rising sea levels will also affect the region. As populations continue to grow and move into cities, meeting these challenges will become even more difficult: cities in the region are not climate-proof, with proliferating slums, poor public transport systems and inadequate resilience to extreme weather events.

The good news

But climate change is not an inescapable fate, and how the phenomenon plays out will depend on decisions taken both in the region and outside. Already, some states are displaying growing awareness of the dangers lying in store, and citizens are beginning to put pressure on governments to address issues such as water shortages and waste. The potential of renewable energy is as untapped as it is great. This means that it is not too late to avert the risks that climate change will bring.

Ready or not?

According to a comprehensive quantitative climate change risk index developed by Florence Gaub and Clémentine Lienard, not all Arab states are in the same boat: some states, such as those in the Gulf, have the necessary resources to adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects, while others, such as Jordan or Morocco, have the necessary awareness and expertise. The worst placed, unfortunately, are those states that are currently experiencing conflict: Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen will be hit the hardest by both direct and indirect effects of climate change.

Assisting the Arab world in meeting the challenges posed by climate change will be a matter of strategic importance for Europe: not only because unmanaged risks will produce violent conflict and waves of migration, but also because other states, such as China or Russia, are beginning to exploit the vulnerabilities of the region for geopolitical purposes.

Read the full report

Florence Gaub, Clémentine Lienard, “Arab climate futures – Of risks and readiness”, November 2021.?