April Economic Data Report

Slower Growth, Higher Inflation

• 1.6% Real GDP growth came in lower than expected
• The PCE price index came in higher at 3.4%
• Retail sales continue to be strong
• The Fed will probably hold off on any rate cuts until inflation improves
• Stock market futures sold off on the news

Written by Philip Rich,?Chief Investment Officer, on April 25, 2024.

US GDP – Growth Slowing, Inflation Hot

Real GDP for the US came in below expectations at 1.6%, according to the “advance” estimate for the first quarter of 2024. Most forecasts had predicted a better than 2% result. This is the slowest measure of GDP growth in almost two years. Much of the slowdown in growth came from net trade numbers and inventories. Real final sales, which measure domestic demand, continue to grow at better than 3%. The same report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index at 3.4%, the highest inflation reading since Q1 of 2023. The “core” PCE index, which excludes food and energy, came in at 3.7%. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The Fed has a stated target of 2.0% for inflation. Nothing in today’s report would encourage the Fed to cut interest rates any time soon.

Learn about our economy expert.

This?information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Sources:

GDP – Bureau of Economic Analysis

Employment & Inflation – Bureau of Labor Statistics

Interest Rates – Federal Reserve

P/E S&P 500 – multpl.com

Non-deposit investment products and services and Insurance products and services offered through United Community Banks, Inc. are:?

??NOT?Insured by FDIC or Any Other Government Agency;

??NOT?Guaranteed by United Community Bank or any affiliate of? United Community Bank;

??NOT?a Deposit or Obligation;

? Subject to Risk and May Lose Value This content is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice, investment advice, or any other advice. This content is provided for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. United Community?shall not be liable for any damages of any kind relating to such information not as to the legal, regulatory, financial, or tax implications of the matters referred herein. All views and opinions expressed are those of the writer/commentator and do not reflect the views or positions of United Community.