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April 25, 2022

Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting

Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting is an international aviation consulting firm specializing in Air Service Development

发布日期: 2022年4月25日

The theme for schedule changes this week was cuts! As you can see from the table below, many domestic carriers made schedule reductions this week. Many were to account for pilot shortages that will continue to affect the industry for months to come. See below for more details on each carrier and feel free to reach out with any specific questions.

Last week Alaska, American and United had their Q1 earnings calls. While United fell short on some analyst estimates, they are expected to have the second strongest second quarter of revenue in their history. This week Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Skywest, and Southwest will report their Q1 2022 earnings. See below for links.

Our next Airport Roundtable with The Quotient Group and hosted by Columbia Metropolitan Airport (CAE) is less than three weeks away! It will be May 11-13, 2022 in Columbia, SC. There is still time to register! Click?here?for more information.

We're Hiring!

If you know of someone that is interested in becoming an Air Service Development Data Analyst, please reach out or check out the job description?here. Here are the day to day responsibilities

Ability to analyze and visualize data to tell a convincing and clear story
Query data sources such as U.S. DOT, TSA, census, county property assessor, mobile location tracking, Australia’s Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Economics (BITRE), Statistics New Zealand and other data to contribute to client presentations
Work with client managers to create compelling business cases for airlines to add or grow air service into a community
Develop PowerPoint slides to be used in airline meetings (focusing on clearly outlining the message with design/delivery)
Develop and run monthly and quarterly traffic reports for clients
Revamp existing reporting using data visualization tools to create automated reporting and/or dashboards
Execute various ad-hoc client projects
Perform detailed data modeling
Provide insights that assist in clients’ strategic development
Identify risks, trends, and growth opportunities for clients
Own and manage a variety of detailed projects

Capacity Update

As mentioned before, this week was a busy week for U.S. airlines making adjustments to their schedules. To see all the route cancellations by airline and month, please click this?link?with tabs for each airline. We anticipate many of these route cancellations are seasonal suspensions related to labor shortages and will return at some point.

Alaska?reduced domestic capacity from May through November this week. In addition to route cancelations from June through November, they also reduced the following routes from Portland (PDX) from daily to Saturday only In July and August: Billings (BIL), Bozeman (BZN), Kalispell (FCA), and Missoula (MSO).

This week,?American?reduced domestic capacity in September and October 1% week over week. They cancelled 12 routes in September and 16 in October. They also removed four routes from all future schedules: Bismarck (BIS) to Phoenix (PHX); and Chicago (ORD) to Colorado Springs (COS), Reno (RNO), and State College (SCE).

It appears that several routes previously loaded as year-round for?Breeze?have been suspended in the Fall in order for the airline to fund it’s surprising success obtaining “slots” at White Plains (HPN).?Most, if not all, of these are expected to return over the ensuing months as new aircraft are delivered, according to senior Breeze officials. In May, Breeze cancelled Palm Beach (PBI) to Columbus (CMH), New Orleans (MSY), Norfolk (ORF), and Richmond (RIC).

Delta?cancelled Nashville (BNA) to Raleigh Durham (RDU) and Boston (BOS) to Buffalo (BUF) in June; BOS-BUF in July; and Atlanta (ATL) to Oakland (OAK) in August.

Frontier?reduced domestic capacity from May onwards this week. They cancelled three markets in May and five in June through August. They also removed five routes from all future schedules: Orlando (MCO) to Harlingen (HRL), Wilmington, DE (ILG), Little Rock (LIT), and Pensacola (PNS); and Chicago (ORD) to San Juan (SJU). If ILG-MCO does not return, that would be a station exit for Frontier, and Delaware would once again lose scheduled commercial service.

JetBlue?cancelled ten domestic routes in June, six in July and five in August this week. They also removed from all future schedules JFK to Boise (BOI) and Kalispell (FCA). These routes were started last summer and if they don't return, BOI and FCA would be station exits for JetBlue.

Southwest?cut domestic capacity in July 3% and 4% in August week over week. They cancelled 12 routes in July and 11 in August. They also removed six routes from all future schedules: Austin (AUS) to Pensacola (PNS); Tampa (TPA) to Cincinnati (CVG) and Memphis (MEM); Indianapolis (IND) to Myrtle Beach (MYR) and San Diego (SAN); and Los Angeles (LAX) to Milwaukee (MKE). IND-SAN hasn't flown since August 2019 and was scheduled to restart in July. In addition to the summer route cancels they also reduced 10 routes from daily to Saturday only service.

Spirit?cut domestic capacity 5% week over week in both June and July. They cancelled 44 routes in June and 42 in July. They also removed five markets from all future schedules: Pensacola (PNS) to Columbus (CMH), Indianapolis (IND), Kansas City (MCI), and St Louis (STL); and Niagara Falls (IAG) to Myrtle Beach (MYR). If Frontier does not resume IAG service, this will be a station exit.

Lastly,?Sun Country?removed Honolulu (HNL) to Los Angeles (LAX) and San Francisco (SFO) from all future schedules. If these are permanent exits, HNL would be a station exit and Sun Country would be leaving Hawaii.

This Week's Observation: Florida Capacity Analysis

Capacity to the Florida Panhandle has been drastically reduced this summer compared to 2021. You can see that seats to Pensacola (PNS), Panama City (ECP) and Fort Walton Beach/Destin (VPS) all have been reduced over 30% year over year.

Domestic United States Capacity By Carrier

Small Community Air Service Development (SCASD)

The Small Community Air Service Development (SCASD) Program grant applications were recently uploaded to Regulations.gov. There were 47 applications totaling over $33 million in requested funding. The government has around $17 million available to give out this year. Results will likely be in July.

Out of the 47 applications, 31 had airline letters of support. American had the most with nine, followed by seven from Sun Country, and five from Breeze.
Grant requests ranged from $250,000 (Hilton Head Island HHH) for marketing support, to $1,900,000 (Chain of US pacific islands) for new interisland service.
The largest community cash support was $2.8 million supporting the Fresno County Rural Transit Authority and their bid for an intermodal transportation system involving electric buses and small aircraft supporting small communities.
The state with the most applications was California with five and Texas and Alabama were next with three.
The previous year only one winner was chosen from each state with applications.