Apr 8 am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary

Euro-1.1245. The last commentary I wrote was on March 29, as I was away last week, but today's opening level is 10 points away from then. Jeez--no wonder it's tough for trend followers to make money. It certainly feels as though the powers that be are supporting the Euro and EurJpy on weakness. However, this is the first time at these levels where the Euro hasn't ripped higher as its distributing below the important 1.1300 level. I am still bearish in the bigger picture but to really get the downside going, the Euro needs to break 1.1200 and distribute below there. Until then, rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities. Selling new lows has not been a good trade so wait for strength. A move above 1.1300 would alleviate the near term negative bias and we could see a rally back to 1.1400. For today, resistance lies at 1.1262. Sell an early morning rally ahead of there with a tight stop looking for a move lower into the NYK close. Support comes in at 1.1221 and then 1.1209. Today's mid is 1.1230 and Fridays was 1.1227, so a move below that range will be negative. EurJpy is certainly being held up around the key 124 level as with $Yen at 110. I am bullish $Yen in the bigger picture but less clear on EurJpy as the Euro is the main driver of the cross, so in the bigger picture I'd expect lower.

S&P-2890. Even though the market made an all time high last September, the strong selling started in October from the 2894 level. Without even knowing who is behind the global money flows, its painfully obvious that 1-its strong and 2-its going into US equities. As I've mentioned before, if you're a European asset manager of any kind, long US equities on an unhedged currency basis is probably the trade to do. Similar to a US asset manager back in the 90s buying the European debt convergence trade on an unhedged currency basis. Today is day 8 of a TD bullish count. If completed at tomorrows close, this will be the third bullish count since the December lows. There is also a bullish count on the weekly charts since December as well. Most use these as counter-trend set-ups, but to me they show the direction of the money flow. Until we have a bearish set-up, look for new, all time highs in the next month or so--if not sooner. Support comes in at 2850 and then 2790. Continue to look for buying opportunities.

BTC-5140. The right hand chart is the 50x150 point and figure. Point and figures do a great job of showing where space and distributions are. There is a lot of space between 4250 and 6000/6200 so it was expected that when 4250 printed, the market would rally strongly to/near the 6k level although still 800 from there. The red, dashed horizontal line is 6k but it looks as though the market needs to print 6200/50 to reconnect to the previous distribution. BTC is sort of in no mans land at the moment. If its going higher, its needs to hold 4250. Can buy weakness in here with stops at 4200. The 6200/50 level is just as important as the 4250 level was. It will be resistance until broken. When BTC broke higher last week, the initial sell offs held 4700ish and then 4800ish. This is where buying came in. So, now, there is a big range bar up with little volume(meaning the market did not trade AT a price, it traded THROUGH it and when the market paused, buying came in between 4800 and 4700 so there is space from 4700 down to 4250. I expect 4700 to hold and for another strong leg higher to test the 6k+ level. Below 4250 would not be good.