Apr 26 am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary

Euro-1.1140. Well, all eyes are on the number this morning--I'll let smarter people than me figure out all the possible scenarios for whatever the number is. Whatever it is though, I expect the Euro to end the day on the lows, regardless of the knee jerk reaction to the headline. The days range is only 42% of the 10-day average range so there is room to move. Probably best to wait to see how the 950 to 1050am period trades versus the 920 to 950am period. That will set the tone for the day, and whatever way that tone is, expect it to trend right into the close. Even if the Euro does manage a rally today, just look at it as a selling opportunity in the bigger picture. Resistance lies at 1.1160 all the way up to 1.1200. There is a previous weekly TDST line at 1.1118. A close below that would be very bearish in the bigger picture with an initial target of 1.05ish and then .9000 further out.  The left hand chart is the weekly on top, EurJpy in middle and then $Yen on bottom. Since late 2016, the EurJpy chart has mirrored the Euro chart so I have to expect EurJpy to continue the trend lower with the Euro in the bigger picture. I am bullish all dollars, but $Yen could lag as EurJpy goes lower but the level to watch there is 114. EurJpy below 124 would confirm the move.  

S&P-2925. Again, the risk here is for a blow off rally and not a melt down--at least for now. Only a close below 2780 would negate that. A macro hedge fund manager from many years ago would say to me "Whats the best view on the mountain?" and the answer is "the summit!" Well, if 2780 breaks, then I'll say 2940 was the summit. For now, 2890 is first support and I expect that to hold for new highs. The next level is 2850 where I suspect there are stops so a print of that will probably see a quick sell off to the 2800/2780 level which is my line in the sand. But, as mentioned above, I don't think the market gets below 2890 before new highs.  

BTC-5150. Some bad news comes out and BTC sells-off and now traders are saying the top is in and that was an easy sale(well, not all). Jeez, it's called consolidation and even with this sell-off, the market is range bound at the moment. This 5150 level is support but only a print of 4750 would suggest lower. The rally from 4200/50 left single prints up to 4800 so a move below that will be met with a lot of stop-loss selling and new shorts. I highly doubt that scenario happens as the market just looks to be consolidating before a run at 6000/6200. That zone of resistance is clear to anyone with a chart and a horizontal line, so it will be met with selling the first few attempts at it. I am bullish the bigger picture so these swings don't mean much. However, they do offer good opportunity for day traders for sure--more than the Euro or other FX pairs.