Approaching the Sun
After stumbling upon an exciting chart that extrapolated the decline in the cost of 1MWh of solar energy and an article's conclusion on the potential cost-effectiveness of producing synthetic hydrocarbons compared to extracting them from the earth's crust after 2030, when the price hits $10 per 1MWh, I felt the need to dive deeper into the topic and better understand the prospects of green fuel.
While gathering information, I decided to share my findings and structure my thoughts by organizing them in this article. Here, I focused on key issues and associated challenges. Due to the fragmentation and inaccessibility of data, the economic aspect of the issue proved to be particularly challenging to analyze, and although the presented information does not allow for precise economic forecasts, it provides a general overview of the situation. I will leave a more detailed economic analysis for next time. For now, I want to share some numbers and data, thereby giving myself a start in delving into this subject. Please feel free to share any thoughts you have. Thanks.
Change Drivers
In this context, let's pay attention to the key factors motivating us towards a green transition. The current pricing policy of traditional fuels, although seemingly advantageous from today's perspective, does not encourage the shift to alternative energy sources. However, sustainable development acts as a primary reason to consider alternatives, pushing those who strive for a clean future towards innovation. The progress in alternative energy technologies reveals to us a second driver - economic benefit. The transition from subsidization to profitability makes green energy an attractive investment, and the market, which already accounts for about 12% of global energy production, promises significant prospects. The third aspect is the growing attractiveness of green products among consumers, who are willing to pay more for sustainable solutions. This confirms that we are on the right path, striving to produce competitive green fuel. The task before us is immense, but together we can find ways to solve it, ensuring a future where transport, production, and daily life rely on clean energy, contributing to the preservation of our planet.
Transporting the Sun
Indeed, there lies a monumental task in meeting the world's energy needs through solar and wind energy. The scale of growth in solar photovoltaic capacity, reaching 239 gigawatts of new installations in 2022, illustrates our collective commitment to the transition to renewable sources. The total capacity of solar installations at the end of 2022 amounted to a staggering 1177 gigawatts. Investment trends, showing more than a 20% increase in investments in solar energy exceeding $320 billion, only underscore the world's intention to accelerate this transition.
However, with increasing production volumes, the question of delivering this energy to the end consumer arises. In equatorial regions, thanks to the abundance of sunlight, direct use of solar energy seems logical. But in more northern latitudes, where daylight is short, especially in winter, we face a serious challenge: how to "transport the sun" to these regions? Looking at Stockholm, whose consumption amounts to about 20.5 terawatt-hours per year. Using lithium-ion batteries, typical for modern electric vehicles, with their energy density of 265 watt-hours per kilogram, reveals astronomical figures of the necessary battery weight. To cover Stockholm's annual needs, it would require a weight equivalent to almost 155 Burj Khalifas, which is beyond the capacity of even the largest container ships. This example clearly shows that methods effective for individual transport cannot be scaled to power entire cities.
We need to look for alternative energy storage and transportation solutions that are economically viable and environmentally sustainable to truly realize the dream of "transporting the Sun."
How Much Does Energy "Weigh"?
In the discussion of the weight of energy and its density, we uncover important aspects of choosing energy sources for the future. Comparing the energy density of various materials and technologies allows us to understand which are most promising for developing a sustainable energy future. Lithium-ion batteries, for example, store approximately 265 Wh (0.265 kWh) of energy per kilogram, significantly less compared to gasoline (12 kWh per kg) or hydrogen (33 kWh per kg). This difference in energy density raises questions about the feasibility of using batteries in some contexts, especially when it comes to scaling for urban or industrial needs.
At the same time, despite the high energy density of hydrogen, storing and transporting this gas presents significant technical and economic challenges. Standard conditions yield only about 3 kWh of energy from one cubic meter of hydrogen. Increasing pressure or transitioning to liquid hydrogen increases energy density but also requires additional costs and complex technologies for storage.
For instance, using hydrogen in transport, such as fuel cells for electric vehicles, demonstrates the potential of hydrogen energy but also the limitations associated with the need to store large volumes of gas under high pressure.
These reflections emphasize the importance of innovations in energy storage and transportation. We are faced with the task of not only increasing the efficiency and availability of renewable energy sources but also developing new, more effective ways to store and deliver them to ensure a sustainable and clean energy future.
Why Hydrogen
The discussion of the potential of hydrogen as an energy source becomes increasingly relevant amidst global efforts to transition to sustainable energy sources. Hydrogen, comprising nearly 75% of the matter in the universe and possessing a high energy density, presents an ideal candidate for clean fuel. Its appeal is enhanced by the fact that water vapor is the only byproduct of hydrogen engines, causing no harm to the environment. However, despite all the advantages, the use of hydrogen faces significant technical and economic obstacles. The production of pure hydrogen requires considerable energy inputs, especially when it comes to green hydrogen, obtained from water through electrolysis using renewable energy sources.
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This method opens the path to creating an infinitely renewable energy source, especially considering the decreasing cost of solar energy, which can serve as the key to efficient and economically viable hydrogen production. The cost of producing green hydrogen in 2023 varied from $4.5 to $12 per kilogram, which is still higher compared to blue hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture, whose cost ranged from $1.8 to $4.7 per kilogram. Considering that most hydrogen is currently produced as grey (without CO2 capture) and blue hydrogen, the industry faces the challenge of reducing the costs of producing green hydrogen. Future forecasts remain optimistic, suggesting a reduction in price to $0.5 per kilogram by 2050, although more conservative estimates indicate a possible cost of $3 per kilogram by the same time. In this context, hydrogen represents a promising but challenging path to achieving a sustainable energy future, requiring significant innovations and investments to realize its full potential.
Second Attempt to Transport the Sun
In search of a solution for more efficient energy transportation, we encounter the limitations of lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen. This forces us to look for alternative methods that could allow us to "transport the sun" with less loss and higher efficiency.
Ammonia (NH3) represents one of such solutions. Thanks to its ability to transport hydrogen in a denser and less dangerous form, ammonia could become a key element in the green energy supply chain. The production of ammonia, especially using processes based on renewable energy sources, opens up possibilities for creating a carbon-neutral energy system.
The cost of producing blue ammonia, which is about $530 per ton, combined with its high transportation efficiency, makes ammonia an attractive candidate for the role of hydrogen carrier. Also important is the availability of nitrogen, which makes up about 78% of the Earth's atmosphere, simplifying its extraction and reducing the overall costs of ammonia production.
Transporting ammonia offers the following advantages:
Safety: Due to its lower flammability compared to hydrogen, ammonia is a safer option for transportation and storage.
Energy Density: Ammonia provides a higher energy density compared to hydrogen in its standard conditions, making it more efficient for transportation.
Infrastructure: Existing infrastructure for ammonia can be adapted for its transportation and storage, potentially reducing initial investments and accelerating development. It must be noted that the process of converting ammonia back into hydrogen requires additional energy inputs and is associated with certain risks.
However, considering all the aforementioned advantages, ammonia can play a key role in creating a sustainable and efficient global energy system, simultaneously addressing the challenges of energy storage and transportation.
In Conclusion
I have come to believe that in the current context of energy transition and sustainable development, passenger electric vehicles represent one of the most promising and rational paths. They not only contribute to reducing the carbon footprint but also efficiently integrate into the system of using renewable energy sources.
However, green hydrogen opens significant prospects for powering remote and hard-to-reach territories, where direct use of renewable sources may be challenging. This indicates the importance of further research and development in hydrogen energy as a critical component of the global energy matrix.
My next task will be to analyze the trends in the cost of different types of green energy and investigate the potential of hydrogen as a fuel resource for freight transport. Based on preliminary analysis, I assume that hydrogen could have particular significance for marine and heavy land transport vehicles, where space for fuel storage is not a limiting factor. This hypothesis requires detailed verification, which will help identify the most effective strategies for implementing sustainable transport solutions based on hydrogen.
[Please let me know if you find any errors in calculations]
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