Applying futures thinking to digital strategy

Ah, the future – that mysterious, unknowable land where Virtual CDO's, Personal Agents , Machine Customers and Spatial Computing are always just around the corner. Except, that's not quite right, is it? Enter Futures Thinking, a methodology not so much about predicting flying toasters as it is about preparing for possible tomorrows. It's like having a crystal ball, but instead of vague prophecies, you get practical roadmaps.

To me, the magic of Futures Thinking in digital strategy is that it turns uncertainty into a game of strategic foresight. It's not about predicting the future with 100% accuracy, but about being agile, adaptable, and prepared for multiple possibilities. It's like having a Swiss Army knife for the digital age – versatile, practical, and always a step ahead.

This approach is particularly handy when the only constant in our world is change. By using tools like scenario planning and trend analysis, Futures Thinking helps organizations dodge the bullets of unforeseen circumstances. It's like playing chess with time – anticipating moves, countermoves, and the occasional surprise checkmate.

Futures thinking and Scenario Planning

But how does this differ from good old Scenario Planning? Well, think of scenario development as the telegraph to Futures Thinking's smartphone. Back in the day, scenario development was the go-to method for exploring potential futures. It involved creating detailed narratives about different futures, like crafting an elaborate choose-your-own-adventure book. But it was a bit rigid, often focusing on a limited set of possibilities.

Fast forward to today, and Futures Thinking has stirred things up. It's more dynamic, integrating complex systems thinking and embracing the uncertain, unpredictable nature of our world. It's like upgrading from a black-and-white TV to a 4K ultra-high-definition one – the core idea is the same, but the quality and depth of insight are vastly improved.

Futures Thinking versus Design-, and Systems-Thinking

Now, let's compare Futures Thinking with its cousins – Design Thinking and Systems Thinking. Picture a family dinner where each cousin has a distinct personality. Futures Thinking is the dreamy one, always with their head in the clouds, thinking about what could be. Design Thinking, on the other hand, is the practical one, obsessed with user experience and making things as efficient and effective as possible right now. Then there's Systems Thinking, the wise old sage, always looking at the big picture and how everything connects.

Each of these methodologies has its place at the table. Design Thinking is great when you need to solve immediate, user-centered problems. It's like having a Swiss Army knife – versatile and handy for quick fixes. Systems Thinking, with its holistic view, is like a drone flying over a forest, seeing how every tree and path connects. And then, Futures Thinking, with its long-term perspective, is like a telescope, allowing you to gaze into the distant future and prepare for what's on the horizon.

Futures Thinking framework

So, how do we apply this star-gazing technique, aka Futures Thinking, in the realm of digital strategy and transformation? It's like being a time-traveling strategist. First, you need a framework, a time machine if you will, that lets you explore different futures. This might involve trend analysis, expert interviews, or workshops where you brainstorm 'what ifs'.

The University of Houston, Texas has developed a beautiful framework to help you in your Futures Thinking approach. They have beautiful ready made resources to get you going. There is even the World Futures Society, The World Futures Studies Federation, and an Association of Professional Futurists you can become part of. If you want to start on your own, there are plenty of other resources, like this ready made framework, and a Youtube Playlist on Futures Thinking.

Then, you apply this to digital strategy development. Say you're a tech company. By using Futures Thinking, you can explore how emerging technologies, societal shifts, or even global events might shape the digital landscape. It's like putting on future-tinted glasses to see how today's decisions play out tomorrow. There are also plenty of resources around to get you going on this specific topic, like a worked out 2035 digital transformation scenario (.pdf) by the OECD, and of course The Journal for Future Studies, with a lot of focus on our digital future.

The added value of this approach for organizations is like having a map for uncharted territories. It helps companies anticipate changes, innovate proactively, and stay ahead of the curve. Imagine navigating a boat in foggy waters – Futures Thinking is the lighthouse guiding you safely to shore.

As organizations continue with their digital transformation, Futures Thinking acts like a compass, guiding them through the fog of uncertainty. It's about making informed choices today that will set the course for a successful tomorrow. So, grab your telescope, and let's set sail into the future, ready to embrace the unknown with confidence and a strategic edge.