Applied Systems Thinking for Turnaround Execution, Dynamic Management.

Today we will wrap up our Series: "Systems Thinking Is Shaking The Tree".

We have covered a lot of ground in this discussion.

In STO Realities Issue #15, "A Systems Failure, Or Is It?"

We took a look at the Modern Turnaround Process, with the aid of Carl "C.J." Unis to understand if the Process included the necessarily levels of Organisation and Connectivity to enable a "Systems" approach to Turnaround Management. (Spoiler, the Process is well designed.)

STO Realities Issue #20, "You May Not Be A Learning Organization"

Where we looked at the most significant Prerequisite to being successful with "Systems Methods"

A strong workplace culture that supports and nurtures the culture of a "Learning Organization"

Issue #21, "Systems Thinking Is Shaking The Tree"

We introduced "Applied Systems Thinking", and we suggested that in the world of Turnaround Executions, we do have an example of "Applied Systems Thinking"

STO Realities, Issue #22, "Systems Thinking Skills and Insights To Solve Wicked Problems"

Michael Woudenberg and Carl "C.J." Unis provided us with a brilliant explanation of what this thing we call "Systems Thinking" is all about. The case studies used are an eye-opening exclamation point as to the importance of adopting Systems approaches to the dynamic challenges of our modern world.

In Issue #23 we brought you, "Applied Systems Thinking for Turnaround Execution, Dynamic Schedule Methodology"

We took a looked at the innovative work of Master Scheduler-P6 Guru Laszlo Kardos, PMP, PEng and his methods for creating and maintaining a fully Dynamic Turnaround Execution Schedule.

From Laszlo's work we learn a less common approach to P6 Schedule Methods that enables us to monitor and recorded the minute by minute progress of our event, in real time!.

The Dynamic Schedule Methodology that Laszlo shares with us is the enabling springboard to Dynamic Management of the event.

This is STO Realities, Issue #24, "Applied Systems Thinking for Turnaround Execution, Dynamic Management."

Dynamic Management and Dynamic Scheduling are two concepts that are often used interchangeably, but actually refer to different aspects of managing a project, event, or system.

Dynamic Management refers to the broader concept of adapting to changing conditions, while Dynamic Scheduling specifically focuses on adjusting the schedule of tasks or activities.?

Dynamic management refers to the ability of an organization or system to adapt and respond to changes in its environment or situation.

React, respond, adjust, adapt, those are the words we want to hear.

Without response, all the work we put into Dynamic Schedule Methods would only be a method to watch our Train Wreck while it progresses.

Clearly we expect a great deal more from Applied Systems Thinking than front row seats to a Goat Rodeo!

Our Dynamic Schedule provides us with a great deal of data and insight; Dynamic Management involves using this real-time data and feedback to make decisions and adjust processes accordingly.

Turnaround -- Brownfield work in general -- is an extremely dynamic environment.

The project will include unpredicted, and unpredictable changes throughout the entire course of the event.

From kick-off at T -24 months, to project close-out at T +3 months, change is what is "normal".

So it is no great leap to understand why mainstream approaches to Project Management -- that have proven very successful in Greenfield environments -- tend to deliver what has become a dismally predictable tale of Late Startup and Significant Cost overruns, along with reportable Safety events and Environmental exceedances.

• We held the line and insisted upon fully Detailed Work packages.
• We then built a Schedule using DSM for all of that work.

Our DSM approach is allowing us to understand day by day, hour by hour exactly how we are performing against our base line, we can literally see the Schedule suppositions which for whatever reason, are heading off the rails.

What do we do now?

Reiterating what was said above, the point of all that preparation and creative DSM Schedule development certainly was not to be able to better observe the details of a Train Wreck, the point -- obviously -- is to use all this hard earned data to exert influence.

The Wreck is NOT inevitable unless we Allow that to be so!

Develop corrective actions:

Based on the analysis of the schedule and identification of variances, develop corrective actions to address any issues or deviations from the planned schedule.

This can involve rescheduling activities, adding or removing resources, or adjusting the project scope.

We learned in Issue #23 that only a very small percentage of our total work scope is related to "Critical Path", and we also have come to understand that Critical Path, is seldom the failure mechanism for these events.

DSM is showing us all those pitfalls, (some 90%ish of the total work scope), that predictably creep up and knock us down while all eyes are focused on the "Critical Path".

Dynamic Management is quite simply adjusting our game plan to the reality of the play.

Allowing ourselves to embrace and implement "Change" in real time.

A Chess Master sits down to every game with a plan.

The opponent is the dynamic factor that cannot be entirely built into the plan.

So move by move, the Chess Master dynamically manages the plan, clearly understanding the objective is to win the match, not to faithfully execute the original plan.

On the individual level, every individual who drives an automobile is practicing Dynamic Management every second of the journey.

That white ford suddenly pulls out in front of us, we brake, we adjust.

A herd of deer is crossing the highway, we stop, we adjust our journey plan.

Our starting point is a constant, our destination is a constant, but the journey plan we execute to drive from the Starting Point to the Destination will only be successful if we Dynamically manage every second of that travel to adjust for the unexpected, and unpredictable events along our route.

When we talk about Dynamic Management of Turnaround Events this is precisely what we mean.

No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.?Only the layman believes that in the course of a campaign he sees the consistent implementation of an original thought that has been considered in advance in every detail and retained to the end. Helmuth von Moltke (essay 1871)

Static Methods yield brilliant results when managing Static Challenges, and it would be silly to add levels of complexity to something that is working very well.

On the other hand, Static Project Control has proven to be a direct path to failure in Dynamic Events such as Facility Turnaround.

Dynamic Challenge = Wicked Problems.

Dynamic Challenges can be managed very well using Dynamic methods. (AKA Applied Systems Thinking)

Dynamic Management, supported by Dynamic Schedule Methods tames the dynamic beast of Facility Brownfield Projects, enabling us to execute on the "Kenny Rogers" plan...

If you're gonna play the game, boy

You gotta learn to play it right

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin'

When the dealin's done

If we expect change, and we plan for change, and we create a robust system to monitor change, then change does not automatically mean failure or compromise.

We play the cards we are dealt, instead of being stuck attempting to play the hand we "imagined" we would be dealt.

The purpose of the Turnaround Team, the Turnaround Plan, and the Turnaround Schedule is to manage the Turnaround Event to success!

There is no value whatsoever of steadfastly sticking to a failing plan.

The Good Captain Does Not Go Down With The Ship!

The Good Captain, (and the owners the captain works for), utilizes all the tools to understand current reality, then stops the Ship from sinking in the first place!

So let's allow ourselves to do so.

Success in Dynamic endeavours is a Systems Thinking challenge.

Dynamic methods are the direct result of applying Systems Thinking to the decades old, (and tiresome), fact that some 70% of such events cannot be defined as successful.

Let's be completely clear and honest with each other, 100% of Turnaround Events could and should be successful, all it requires is a "change" in approach.

Modern Turnaround Process(es) are very well developed and holistically organised with feedback loops and full connectivity.

Compliance to the process, followed by a dynamic execution methodology is the secret. (Not really a secret, both the process and the methods are well understood and readily available for any team to shift toward.)

"The Industry Can Be Better!"

Three out of Ten Turnarounds are Successful and executed with excellence -- those 3 understand all of the above, but nothing is being held in secret from the other 70% of owner operators!

100% Turnaround Success is a realistic and achievable goal!

We do not need to point out the immense fiscal advantage that those owners in the 30% group will always have over those who do not make this pivot.

Interested in more? Join us at the PetroChem Canada conference in March.

The contributors to this article series... "Systems Thinking is Shaking the Tree" will be presenting these ideas in greater detail with Q & A.

This Three hour discussion seminar is free with your conference pass. Book today though, because space is limited.

Carl "C.J." Unis Michael Woudenberg Heinz Inabnit Peter Reier

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