Apple Vision Pro, A Trillion Dollar Insurance Policy

At the launch of the iPhone 15 and Watch 9 series, Apple mentioned that it was on track to release the Apple Vision Pro in early 2024. It has included some features in the new iPhone and Apple Watch that support its Vision Pro development including the double-finger tap gesture on the Apple Watch 9 and the spatial cameras on the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max.

In our analysis of the Apple Vision Pro, we highlight that it is the most complex consumer electronics product ever made but we believe that Apple is using the Vision Pro essentially as an insurance policy. The majority of Apple’s revenue and profit, and therefore a good chunk of its market cap, is derived from the iPhone product line. Apple is therefore bound to do anything in its power to defend the iPhone’s market position.

For a long time, people have speculated that the product most likely to replace the smartphone as their primary interface with digital life will be some sort of augmented reality device. Apple is not immediately threatened by the slowly developing XR industry. But would it be wise for it to sit on the sidelines and watch while potential competitors work on what might, one day, be a product that can truly compete with its iPhone revenue stream? Of course not, and it isn’t.

Counterpoint subscribers can read our full analysis of the Apple Vision Pro, and everyone can read a fuller version of this blog on the Counterpoint Research website.