Apple will still lead the development of technology in the next 20 years?

On March 7, Guo Mingqi, a well-known Apple stock analyst, made an Apple product development roadmap forecast in his newly released research report. He is known for breaking news about Apple's new products, and his past predictions have been verified many times. This time the prediction quickly attracted media attention.

According to his prediction, Apple will release a virtual reality VR headset product in 2022, the price is about 1,000 US dollars. Next, in 2025, Apple will release a product with AR, that is, augmented reality glasses. After 2030, Apple will release a contact lens product with AR function.

If these products can run independently without relying on mobile phones, it means that within two or three years we will have iPhones that can be worn on the body.

If we have such a product, we can not only get a brand new and disruptive technological experience, but also some problems caused by imperfect existing technological products can also be solved. What's the problem?

For example, when using Zoom or other software to open a video conference, will you always be tempted to stare at your face? If you are in an immersive VR experience and you can't see your face at all, you can only see the other person, then this problem naturally does not exist.

But now that you use your mobile phone and computer to hold meetings, you obviously should listen carefully to the work reports of your boss and colleagues, but you will be unconsciously attracted by your own "glorious shadows" and cannot extricate yourself from it. Even after some people turn off their lens, they still can't help but click on it again to see what they look like.

If you have this experience, you are not alone—you are not alone. In foreign countries, many media interviewed psychologists and discussed the psychological mechanism behind this phenomenon very seriously. In these discussions, I like an analysis of the American technology media "Wired" website. This article made me realize that the crux of the problem is not the imperfection of technology. The imperfection of technology exposes people's inner needs and pain points.

Let me share with you this article from Wired magazine. The title is "Why can't I stop looking at my face when I have a Zoom meeting".

You might be thinking, is the pain point I am talking about a narcissistic need? After all, if you keep staring at your face, everyone will wonder if you have some hidden narcissistic tendency. This tendency has been hidden deep in the subconscious before, but now under the light of science and technology, has it finally been revealed?

If you have this concern, you don't have to. But one thing I want to remind you is that when you stare at your face in a video conference, you do experience a new experience under the "light of technology". The "scarcity" and "novelty" of this experience is something that many of us may not have seriously chewed before.

Think about it, before 2000, did most people even know what "video software" was? The first time I used video software to call someone was when I was in high school, that is, after 2005, I used Skype to call my family abroad. Using WeChat to make video calls with others is even more of a thing after 2013. As for using video to hold conference calls with others every day, it was only during the epidemic prevention and control in February last year that we had this intensive video experience for the first time.

In other words, in the long history of mankind, most people have not had the opportunity to see themselves through the dynamic form of video most of the time. In the past, we were either looking at our own static photos, looking in the mirror, or passing by the shop windows on the street, occasionally glancing at our dynamic appearance. Until a year ago, most people in the world did not need or have the opportunity to see their dynamic self for a long time and continuously.

This is exactly a novel experience brought to us by the "Light of Technology". It is precisely because of this "novelty" that many of us can't help but watch ourselves in the video.

But more importantly, this experience puts an ability that we didn't have before in our hands. What ability? It means seeing you in the eyes of others, and you are almost unmodified.

I don’t know if you noticed it. With the popularity of filters and P-pictures, we have become more and more in control of our self-image. Like me, I can only post pictures of me using Meituxiu "beauty" in the city state. Some time ago, I was live broadcasting the process of recording my show on Douyin every day. I found that I didn’t even need to apply makeup. Because Douyin has an automatic makeup function, I only need to choose the style makeup I want on the day. Today is fresh makeup, tomorrow is European and American style and so on. In short, as long as you want, there is always a way to let others see who you like. This is a trend brought about by the development of science and technology: people have stronger control over their self-image.

However, the software of video conferencing is not the same, it is the opposite of this trend. After all, online meetings in business occasions are not suitable for excessive beauty or exaggeration. You have to "fidelity." In software like Zoom, you have to see a more real self. This look may be different from what you think-you originally imagined that you have a delicate makeup and professional skills today, but you will find food on your teeth when you speak; of course you will care whether this image is good or not.

For many people, this is the first time that they can see themselves in the most natural way in the eyes of others. There is a heart-wrenching passage in Wired magazine, saying that what you see will be:

"The appearance of yourself in an emergency in a social situation, all your premeditating is of no use; what you see is you that your friends, family, and acquaintances are so familiar with. You alone are the only one who is completely obsessed with this kind of self. Not aware of it."

Hearing this, you may be a little disappointed: after co-authoring said so much, you are just telling me that I can’t help but stare at myself in the video because I care about my image in the eyes of others, and care about what others do. My point of view? It's still up to you to analyze it, and you don't think of it when you pat your head.

Indeed, this is the motivation behind it. However, there is another layer of motivation, which I find interesting in this analysis of Wired magazine. Wired magazine believes that staring at oneself in the video is also a compensation mechanism for some people's lack of "self-presence".

You also know that during the epidemic prevention and control period, many people abroad have been socially isolated for a long time and lack social interaction with other people. This isolation brings more than just loneliness. Isolation may also bring about a psychological effect: that is, the sense of self-existence is greatly reduced.

In daily life, you may never notice that our sense of self-existence is being fed back and enhanced anytime and anywhere.

For example, when you entered the office, you and the uncle security guard at the door nodded tacitly; you pulled the door for your colleague, and the other party said thank you; when your colleague passed by you, he met you for 0.1 second. Tell someone a joke, and the other person laughed with joy-these seem to be small details, but every detail is a response, affirmation, and confirmation of "your sense of existence".

Think about it, if the uncle security guard turned a blind eye to you when you entered the office; you opened the door to a colleague, and the colleague left without saying a word; you tell a joke, as if others didn't hear it-then you I feel that I am too inexistent.

Therefore, social isolation cuts off not only social interaction, it also cuts off these affirmative and confirmation signals of people's sense of self-existence.

The self-gaze in the video is precisely a kind of "compensation" for these signals. Nothing can confirm one's "sense of existence" more than seeing one's own complete and dynamic appearance.

You see, after you understand this layer of motivation, will you be less critical and questioning, and more gentle and sympathetic towards that, gazing at yourself in the video?

Self-gaze is not a sign of "narcissism." On the contrary, the self-gaze in a video conference reflects the normal social desire that everyone has in their hearts.

By the way: when I was reading the materials, I also noticed that in foreign countries, during the epidemic prevention and control period, a form of meditation-"mirror meditation" became popular. This type of meditation is simple: the meditator spends 5-10 minutes a day staring at himself in front of the mirror. In this process, only observe yourself, not judge. For example, observe the way you look at yourself, is it critical or kind? Observing your attention, will you immediately focus on a certain facial detail that you are not satisfied with? Observe your expression, is it angry, happy, disappointed, or something? Persevering in this kind of meditation is said to be conducive to self-acceptance and the cultivation of empathy.

Well, I will introduce you to the article on the "Wired" website.

After reading this article, I have this feeling: In our hearts, we always hope that technology products will one day become as omnipotent as "magic lamps". If you rub it, it can satisfy all your needs. Therefore, we attach importance to scientific and technological progress, hoping to better meet the needs of mankind through more powerful technology.

But did you find out that technology products are more like a "magic mirror" when used. When you use it, it will reflect your deeper needs, deeper desires, and even deeper fears. We will never get a "perfect" technology product. Of course, this also means that there are opportunities everywhere in this industry. You can always stand on the shoulders of others and see further and solve problems that others have not seen.

Now we can open our minds: there are indeed many people who find it awkward to always stare at themselves in a video conference, and even feel pressured because of this. The most common solution is to turn off the camera, or add a button, so that you can not look at your face. In addition, do you think there are any creative solutions?

Or, do you think there are any new products that can meet the psychological needs of our analysis behind this problem?

You are welcome to share your thoughts in the message area.