Apple is set to support RCS. What does this mean for mobile operators?
In some markets, iPhone adoption exceeds 50%, with Japan already hitting 54%. Now, Apple announces RCS support, but the details remain unclear. The big question: will mobile operators have a role if Apple and Google dominate RCS?
It's reminiscent of Skype's arrival. Operators desperately fought it to eventually admit their defeat. Apart from local calls, voice communication shifted away from them.
Today, mobile operators face uncertainty with RCS. Google holds the reins; it can always change or bend the rules at its will. Google may think along the lines of, "You, operators, are too slow in adopting RCS. Unlike me, you just can't afford to invest gazillions of dollars into the technology. So, it's probably up to me to set the rules, right?"
If Apple also decides to monopolize RCS, it will become the second Google in this matter, and then the operators will have no hope at all. In the RCS pie, only a small slice will be left for a whole constellation of operators.
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Is there a positive scenario for operators?
Previously, not every Android phone supported RCS, but things have changed. Now RCS messaging is supported by all Android phones. Given that 69% of all smartphones run on Android, it means that with Apple’s market share of 29%, RCS will cover 98% of smartphone users, which are already decent figures. Yes, dumbphone enjoyers living in remote rural areas won't be reached by RCS messages; however, the operators will probably put up with that.
The best possible outcome for operators is to provide the last mile, connecting with end clients. Apple and Google handle the geographic aspect of RCS distribution. This way, operators can tariff RCS traffic per message or session.
Key questions remain:
Answers are coming this year. Change is inevitable, not just for RCS but for all telecom channels.