Will Apple or Microsoft restore Zuckerberg's credibility in 2023?

Recently, I have been amazed at the messages I read from journalists in newspapers, online magazines, and those written and shared by people who have a good reputation in business. Rumors were circulating on the internet that Zuckerberg had buried his Metaverse plans and was fully committed to Generative AI. If that were true, it would have been the biggest failure in business history, I think.

What many forget is that Facebook/Meta started this journey in 2014 with the acquisition of the VR headset brand Oculus for more than $2 billion. This is a long-term vision and not an impulsive decision. When I read some media reports, I have my doubts, especially when these reports are shared by business people and respected entrepreneurs.

As a shareholder, I can imagine that the past earnings calls were less pleasant, but it is important to understand the business before drawing hasty conclusions. Disappointing results were not only the fault of investments in VR headsets, AR headsets, VR content, AI, R&D for components to build future headsets and glasses, and certainly not only towards the cartoonish 3D world Horizon Worlds. Because according to clickbait press, that's where Meta is spending its $10 billion.

Other tech companies saw their stock market value collapse in 2022, but if you set your horizon on the longer term, it is logical that you are more sensitive to crises. But look at Snap Inc., Shopify, Amazon... Even Microsoft lost about 30% in market value at the end of last year. The latter is now surfing on the hype they unleashed on the world = Generative AI.

After yesterday's earnings call of Meta, the stock has already risen by 14% today and by almost 150% since last year's massive dip. Even after Zuckerberg posted the following on his Facebook page yesterday:

"A narrative has developed that we're somehow moving away from focusing on the metaverse vision, so I just want to say upfront that's not accurate. We've been focusing on both AI and the metaverse for years now, and we will continue to focus on both."

Many people forget that AI is a means to an end, not the solution itself. Building the metaverse, a live and persistent 3D version of our internet, comes with a cost, many needed skilled people, and a lot of time. Moreover, AI contributes to more interaction and life in the virtual ghost towns that we are experiencing today. Those two go hand in hand to achieve the goal faster and more efficiently.

AI will result in the biggest productivity increase ever in history. Of course, as a company, you invest in it. Every tech player invests in AI. According to Bill Gates, we are talking about the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.

Then there is also something like "keeping shareholders happy who play buzzword bingo." But artificial intelligence is like steam power or electricity. It makes you get things done much faster.

If you change the name of your company a year and a half ago, announce that you want to be seen as a metaverse company in the future (in the future!!), not as a social media company anymore, and invest $10 billion+ per year in realizing that vision, do we really think that someone will change his mind 18 months later because the projected 10-year plan was not realized after a year and a half?

On the 'metaverse menu' this year:

• The launch of the long-awaited Apple headset? Will Tim Cook restore Mark Zuckerberg's credibility and confirm that his vision might actually be the right one?
• The 3D version of Microsoft Teams? Microsoft is still planning to acquire Activision Blizzard for $69 billion, which provides them with the building blocks for the metaverse (as stated in CEO Satya Nadella's official press release on Microsoft's website).

TikTok parent company 'Bytedance' acquired Pico Interactive (headsets) for $770 million in August 2021. So that tech giant is also following in Meta's footsteps. Don't think Zuckerberg has gone crazy. He is noble, goes very strong, and finances a lot of future innovation with his R&D and efforts to make his vision a reality.

Anyway, a message to Mark:

• Don't create too much FOMO, causing users to become disappointed too quickly because the technology still can't catch up with the promise. It's extremely cool what you are building, but it takes time and it affects your credibility.
• I don't know you personally and don't want to judge you. I do know that yondr , and many other colleagues in the industry, owe a lot of their business to the acquisition of Oculus, your vision for the future, and the drive to push this industry forward. Some colleagues in the sector tend to forget that.

Anyway, we'll see in +/- 7 years whether Mark turns out to be a great visionary or the biggest fail in tech history.