Apple and Meta in Virtual Head to Head
Guy Thompson
International Business Development | Insights, Research, Digital Marketing, Advertising, Cross-Border Ecommerce
I've used a range of 3D software over the years to produce animation and followed development in Virtual Reality since the mid 90's, so I have a healthy dose of scepticism ahead of the release of any new 'groundbreaking' technology that will 'revolutionise' the VR market for consumers. It's a product that satisfies enterprise applications and high-end immersive gaming, with very little scope for casual entertainment for the masses. However, with the flurry of activity and the potential to one day reach consumers with virtual reality marketing content, I thought I'd better put my notes together.
The BIG launch
We are only a few days ahead of Apple’s Worldwide Developer 2023 conference on Monday, where Tim Cook is set to finally announce its mixed reality headset. It will be the first major consumer product from Apple that has had no involvement from former founder Steve Jobs. Internally executives are sceptical, calling it a 'science project'...and the bean counters are correct - it's a computer science project.
The rumour mill has been running for years regarding this development, mainly on the back of Facebook's dramatic rebrand to embrace the metaverse. The company apparently burns through $US1 billion a month trying to force it into existence. But at least Meta got the timing right this week to steal Apple's thunder by announcing its updated VR headset aimed at consumers, the Quest 3, for the bargain price of US$499.
So what are we looking at?
The headset to be announced on Monday from Apple will be a professional developer kit, likely to be called Reality Pro, with a price tag of around US$2999, double the price of Meta’s professional kit the Quest Pro, which retails for US$1499, and more than the industry-leading HTC Vive Pro 2 at $1849. Both rely on high powered gaming PCs to provide the 3D input into the headset.
The difference is that the processing power for the Apple headset will be built into an external pack that the user wears on their waist, rather than relying on a high-powered Windows PC. The central processing unit could take the form of a shrunk Mac Mini with a battery pack, that connects via cable (likely USB3 at 5 Gbit/set) to the headset.
This would provide the user more mobility and freedom with the unit, to leverage the potential Apple Fitness offerings they are keen to build into the device (this is very clear from any Apple store visit) The smaller form factor will aim to shake off the high-end developer feel of other VR devices, to make it more appealing to consumers, yet this approach risks alienating the very developers it will try to attract at the streaming event.
The HTC Vive Pro 2 uses a proprietary link box that combines HDMI, USB 2 and power, into a single unified cable to attach the headset to a PC with a built in high-end graphics card. Meta Quest 2 Pro is using a similar approach to connect to a PC, but the consumer Quest 3 is an all-in-one solution aimed at consumers without a high-end gaming PC, which is the audience that Apple wants to target.
High end or low end?
This is where the situation gets confusing. Apple is likely to announce a high-end product, to invite developers into an ecosystem and a dedicated 'Reality App Store' and operating system (xrOS) to develop the content required to appeal to the average consumer interested in casual gaming. But the high price point of the initial pro unit will inevitably lead media outlets to report that Apple’s mixed reality product will be priced 6 times higher than Meta’s.
Enterprise solutions
Virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality have been used over the last 30 years within a range of industries, including training and manufacturing for aviation, construction oil and gas, freight logistics, crane operation, along with military applications. It is especially useful where the equipment is in a remote location, very expensive, dangerous to operate, and potentially all three.
But that’s not where Apple’s audience is, and the company has been notoriously combative with developers. The App Store takes a 30% cut of fees and yesterday reported US$1 trillion in app store sales in 2022 and 29% growth. $109 billion was for in-app advertising and, $104 billion from digital goods and services. With that level of income behind it, Apple can afford to burn more money than anyone, trying to capture a niche market that has failed to capture widespread consumer support.
Sony released it's PS VR2 headset and controllers in February this year and has sold approximately 270,000 units to owners of 40 million PS5 gaming consoles (0.67% of owners). However, sales of the new unit are 8% higher than first 6 week launch of the original PS VR. Released in 2016, it has sold approximately 5 million units to an audience of 117 million PS4 owners. If only 5% of avid gamers are keen on an immersive VR experience, Apple is in for a tough sell.
According to IDC international sales of AR/VR headsets have picked up in Q1 of this year, after growth had started to slow in recent years. Bytedance released the 4th version of it's Pico XR headset in September last year to compete with the Meta Quest and has slowly been increasing sales over time as Meta's share of sales had declined, only recovering in this first quarter. Sony has jumped ahead of Bytedance in sales this year with the PS VR2.
Power Problems
The left image I’ve used in the header is the VIEW system from the NASA Ames Research Center, developed in 1985. VR technology has always been awkward, weird, and clunky and the long-term vision of having small, light glasses that provide an immersive and useful experience, is still a significant way off. It will require a breakthrough battery density innovation that would transform every other industry, before making its way into a consumer device. So until that happens, various developers will continue to push ahead and burn money developing the killer app, to incite consumers to adopt the technology.
Is sport the killer app?
The one benefit that Apple may have is with it’s Apple TV+ offerings, including sport. A virtual big-screen, or live-streamed 360 degree view of a sports game, could be an appealing option. The view could take place from court side, and then be switched to a Spidercam view above the play. This would be a highly immersive an premium experience, yet would detract from the style of viewing that many fans currently enjoy – watching with friends (and rivals) and seeing each other’s reactions live.
The NFL offered an Immersive VR experience to watch 360 degree video highlights of American Football games using the Gear VR platform (Samsung Galaxy inserted into a headset). However, the effort was short lived. The VR videos were last uploaded in 2017 and Meta has officially discontinued support for Gear VR, although the NFL experience is still live on the Meta Quest app store with a 2 star review. If enthusiastic early adopters of VR continue to be offloaded after a couple of years, then the long road to widespread VR adoption will be littered with more dead hardware.
Industry challenges and consolidation
Apple may decide to announce a prototype consumer version, but it could face significant challenges to make its way into the market. Magicleap had been hacking away at Augmented Reality gaming for the home market for over a decade and was never able to make a decent impact.
The company has ended up pivoting into the high-end enterprise solution markets I mentioned above, including AR and XR for electronics manufacturing and medical applications. Their only model available is the Magic Leap 2 which is US$3,299. Although the headset is significantly lighter and less bulky than competitor products, it still requires a wired, external power source.
The headset now sits in a similar space to Microsoft’s US$3,500 solution, the HoloLens 2, which is a Mixed Realty Headset, also aimed at the enterprise market.
Siemens has been applying the HoloLens in a range of industries for its enterprise customers including Shipbuilding and immersive training simulator for plant operations. This example is for truck maintainence, however it is the last Hololens upload to the official Microsoft Customer Stories youtube account five years ago.
VR functions well off-site to view actual or theoretical situations remotely. When venturing on-site, the AR or XR applications are better suited to a tablet form, rather than a headset. Clunky, awkward equipment is incompatible with hardhats, requiring external power supplies, cables, and setup. These same issues will plague VR and XR home systems until the user experience is as seamless and easy as tapping on a smartphone screen.
Magicleap operates outside the consumer device ecosystem and the enterprise industry access that Microsoft has, and probably envied the startup-to-exit success story that OculusVR had, to go from $2.5 million Kickstarter straight to acquisition by Meta, just two years later for US$2B.
Apple was rumoured to have considered buying Magicleap several times over the last 10 years. In 2020 just before the pandemic Magic Leap asserted a US$10B price tag for the company and was desperate to finally exit after burning investor funds since 2010. The price tag will likely be lower very shortly.
With Apple now fully committed to spending its nation-sized financial and marketing resources on its own solution, there will be further consolidation in the AR/VR/XR space, as key products find their audience and competitors find their market eroded, even if the Federal Trade Commission has aimed to block Meta from a recent acquisition deal.
领英推荐
Bloomberg wrap-up of the Apple VisionPro headset announcement the currently available headsets and pricing below:
There’s plenty more to cover in the ‘reality’ space, but that will do for now. Let me know what you think in the comments below, and if you’ve spotted any interesting links.
I’ll continue to add more into this post as stories arrive in the coming days, but here’s a current round up of recent key articles:
APPLE
MacRumors: Apple's AR/VR 'Reality Pro' Headset
Tom’s Hardware: Apple VR/AR headset — everything we know so far
META
SONY
RoadtoVR: Sony PSVR vs PSVR2 Specs and Comparison
The Verge: Sony Sales Results 2023
MICROSOFT
Microsoft: HoloLens
VR HISTORY
The Verge: 9 part History of VR (2014 but well worth a look)
This New York Times?slideshow?traces the evolution of VR headsets over time.
The Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz makes an argument for?investing?in VR.
Michael Abrash, chief scientist at Oculus, outlines VR’s past and future in a 2014?speech.
A?philosophical?take on VR, escaped realities and suspension of disbelief.
Interesting Engineering: The History and Science of Virtual Reality Headsets
Wikipedia: Virtual Reality
BBC Science Focus: History of Virtual Reality
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See you in the future...
International Business Development | Insights, Research, Digital Marketing, Advertising, Cross-Border Ecommerce
1 年The gleeful strut from Zuckerberg, with the gaggle of tech reporters buried headfirst in VR headsets for the original Gear VR launch looked particularly dystopian at the time. It will be fascinating to see how Apple approaches the demo for their foray into this market.