Appetite Over Estimation: Why Shifting Your Approach Can Drive Product Success

Arguably, one of the most important tasks a product person is paid to do is to prioritisation. Which feature is worth shipping ahead of another? Should this bug be fixed ahead of that feature that's been promised to that key client who's on the fence about renewing their contract? Should I accrue this product debt now so I can ship the shiny new thing?

1.0 The Problem

But very often, as we begin to plan the roadmap, and shift into execution mode, something gets in the way that derails this very valuable task of prioritisation. And the evil word?

ESTIMATION.        

If you're someone in the build shop (product management, design or engineering), here's a challenge. Have any of the things you've estimated in the last 6 months met their estimate? No? Thought so.

This isn't because I can see your Jira and Linear boards and roadmaps ;). It's because of a far simpler observation:

Estimation is inherently designed to disappoint.

Estimation is an attempt to predict how long something will take to build. And unless you're Nostradamus, predictions are unlikely to come true. Add to this that most organisations also (correctly) want us to build with flexibility so we ship, measure, learn and improve en route to launching the feature that's just right - it further reduces the ability for a prediction to be met 100% (how can you accurately predict when something will be complete if you're simultaneously unsure of how you need to iterate on it based on learnings?).?

We often struggle to balance our goals with the resources we have. This usually means relying on estimation, where we calculate how long something will take and plan around deadlines.?

2.0 A Significantly Improved Approach

There’s a different approach that I have first hand seen helps teams prioritise without overcommitting AND drive the necessary hard conversations among stakeholders and senior leadership.

APPETITE.        

By focusing on a set time limit—or “appetite”—instead of detailed estimations, teams can approach projects more clearly and deliver more impactful results. It's shifting from saying "I want this, how long will it take to build" to "How much do I want this more than this other thing over here?"

An appetite is completely different from an estimate. Estimates start with a design and end with a number. Appetites start with a number and end with a design. We use the appetite as a creative constraint on the design process. - Ryan Singer

Here’s why appetite can be the smarter choice.

2.1 Enhanced Focus on Value, Not Features

When teams set a specific appetite for a project (e.g., “We’re willing to spend two weeks on this problem”), they start with a clear time frame. This boundary encourages the team to focus on delivering what’s essential within that period, leading to value-based decisions rather than a checklist of features.

Example: Instead of estimating how long a complex feature will take, a team with a two-week appetite will focus on the core functionality that fits within that time. If creating a full-blown analytics dashboard isn’t possible within the appetite, they might prioritise adding a single key metric that still brings users immediate value.

2.2 Greater Flexibility for Iteration

Estimation often creates rigid deadlines, where the team feels pressured to deliver exactly what was planned. Appetite, however, allows for exploration and iteration within a set boundary. Teams can try different solutions, fail fast, and adjust their approach as they learn, without the fear of “missing” a deadline.

Example: A team working on improving user onboarding might try two different onboarding flows within their four-week appetite. This flexibility to iterate on ideas encourages a culture of experimentation and innovation.

2.3 More Honest Conversations about Scope

Appetite opens up discussions about what’s feasible, encouraging honesty about what can be accomplished without overpromising. Traditional estimation can sometimes give a false sense of certainty, setting unrealistic expectations. Appetite, on the other hand, builds transparency from the outset, aligning the team and stakeholders on what’s truly achievable.

Example: Imagine a roadmap with a six-week appetite for enhancing search functionality. The team starts with ambitious goals but quickly narrows down to improvements they believe they can achieve within that appetite, leading to more realistic, collaborative decision-making.

2.4 Reduced Burnout and Improved Team Morale

Estimation often places pressure on teams to meet deadlines regardless of changes, leading to rushed, late nights and potential burnout. Appetite enables teams to set realistic timeframes and work within them without the overbearing expectation of estimation accuracy.

Example: A team with a three-week appetite for building a new notification system can focus on creating a functional prototype without the stress of meeting a precise estimate. Knowing they’re aligned with time, not an exact output, lets them stay productive and motivated.

2.5 Better Alignment with Business Goals

Appetite aligns work with strategic goals rather than tactical tasks. By setting boundaries based on a desired time investment, product leaders ensure that the team works on initiatives that truly impact the business, rather than sinking time into projects that aren’t aligned with overarching priorities.

Example: For a small startup focused on retention, setting a one-month appetite for a customer feedback tool can ensure that the team delivers a basic, usable version in time for a planned campaign. This creates alignment with the company’s broader goals and allows adjustments based on results.

2.6 Improved Predictability in Delivery Cycles

With appetite, you can plan work cycles more predictably by focusing on time-bound efforts rather than exact completion dates. This approach leads to greater predictability in your roadmap, as the team is guided by capacity rather than exhaustive calculations.

Example: If every project has a clear appetite, stakeholders know that a two-week task will yield some results within that period. This predictability makes roadmap planning more transparent and manageable, giving everyone a clearer view of what’s coming next.

3.0 Conclusion

While estimation has its place, adopting an appetite-driven approach can empower product teams to focus on value, flexibility, and sustainability. Appetite encourages creative problem-solving, fosters a more enjoyable working environment, and ultimately aligns work with strategic goals. By setting appetites instead of precise estimations, you can steer teams toward meaningful results with less stress, greater transparency, and a stronger connection to what truly matters.

Switching to an appetite approach doesn’t mean giving up on deadlines or planning—it simply means you’re prioritising outcomes over predictions. For today’s dynamic product landscape, that can make all the difference.        

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?? Next: Moving from Estimation to Appetite: Tips for Transitioning Meaningfully and Pragmatically