Apollo 13 That Thing! Labour's bold quest to decarbonise the UK by 2030

Wasn't that exciting!!

There are numerous reasons to be more hopeful this Monday, but will leave that for others to discuss. But is competence too much to ask for.

Oh and France...well done folks! ??

So Ed and the new Labour's administration has decided to aim for the stars with an ambitious goal: decarbonising the UK's power system by 2030. Yes, we have all read this. For those not in the UK, yes that is the aim.

They want to achieve a 100% clean power system in just a decade. It’s as if Ed looked at Apollo 13 and said, “Hold my beer, I've got this!” But here’s the reality check: This mission, while noble, is more uphill than a Tour de France stage in the Alps. So, let’s buckle up and take a look at what they’re up against.

Aim for the sun...

Labour’s plan to hit net zero by 2030 is a bold leap from the Tories more comparatively modest 2035 target, though we did experience Bluffer Boris's 'lets do 50GW' offshore wind target, that likely came to him with all the preparation of a belch.

It’s like deciding to run a marathon after only doing couch-to-5K. The current state of our grid, market capabilities, and infrastructure? Let’s just say they’re not exactly Olympic-ready. We don’t have the grid, the cables, the HVDC equipment, the vessels, or the ports needed for this sprint. But hey, at least we’re aiming high, right?

GB Energy...please, again, a new name!

To drive this transition, Labour plans to create GB Energy, a publicly owned energy company with an initial capitalisation of over ￡8 billion, was a wee bit more but Starmer's 'Ming vase' election strategy reduced this to pocket change and a bit of lint. Now, ￡8 billion sounds like a lot, but when you start to divvy it up among the myriad challenges, it feels more like trying to fill a swimming pool with a garden hose. Is this going to be a Green Investment Bank 2! A few minority project stakes will do nothing for industrial recovery. Time will tell.

Nature, climate, and economic growth

Labour is framing climate action not just as a necessity but as a golden opportunity for economic growth, job creation, and energy security. It’s the ultimate win-win: save the planet and boost the economy. But, as with all grand visions, the devil is in the details.

I am a fully paid up member of this opportunity, but I am yet to see a joined up policy to link decarbonisation and true green growth.

The ghost of Miliband past

A major asset in this quest is Ed Miliband, who is back and ready to channel his inner climate crusader. Remember, this is the guy who, back in 2008, announced that the British government would legislate to cut greenhouse emissions by 80% by 2050. He killed coal in the UK—dead. Now, he’s back with a vengeance, armed with lessons from the past and a vision for the future.

Mission: renewable deployment

Labour’s strategy includes a massive rollout of renewable energy, focusing on wind and solar power. New the UK is not starting from a low base here, outside China we are the leading deployer of offshore wind and England & Wales has had an onshore wind ban ready to lift. But 2030 is 5.5 years away! It’s a bit like saying you’re going to switch from binge-watching Netflix to training for a triathlon. It’s possible, but it’s going to take a lot of effort, discipline, and probably some tears along the way. Get ready for the Torygraph, Daily Hate and Speccy and the Tuften Street shills to shout loudly about cost of going green etc.

Grid Congestion: the bottleneck of doom

One of the primary obstacles is our congested grid. Think of it as trying to drive a Ferrari on the M25 during rush hour. No matter how fast your car is, you’re not going anywhere quickly. Labour will need to invest heavily in grid infrastructure upgrades, including expanding and modernising transmission lines. It’s a massive task that will require navigating political red tape and local opposition. GB Energy potentially has a place to play here. Plus I would love to see sea bed auctions taking into account future grid connections in its spatial planning more.

Nuclear woes and hopes

The UK’s aging nuclear fleet is another hurdle. Many plants are due to shut down by the end of the decade. Replacing or extending these will require not just money but also overcoming public and political opposition. Nuclear energy is like the marmite of the power world—you either love it or you hate it. Balancing this will be a tightrope walk for Labour. Note that the current nuclear money sink was started under Labour. To me, I am not anti-nuclear, just anti-wastes of money and time, which kind of rules nuclear out in this plan.

The oil and gas transition

Labour has pledged to end new oil and gas licenses by 2030, aiming to shift focus to renewable energy. This sounds great on paper, but the North Sea oil and gas industry is a significant employer, especially in Scotland. Ensuring a just transition for workers will be crucial. It’s a bit like telling someone you’re going to replace their beloved classic car with a brand new electric vehicle. It’s better for the environment, sure, but they’re emotionally and financially invested in the old model, this will need care, but we have had to transition painfully before. It won't be done easily, we just have to accept this. But it will also take a lot longer than anticipated.

Hydrogen and low-carbon heating

Transitioning from natural gas to hydrogen for heating is another challenge. Ooops, sorry its not a challenge. It's actually a stupid idea. So moving on...

Financing the dream

Maintaining low financing costs is essential for renewable projects. Labour’s fiscal policies aim to balance public debt with the need for substantial investment. It’s like walking a financial tightrope with the opposition shaking the rope every chance they get. Reeves has chained her to the same restrictive rules as the Tories did. If Growth does not start quickly, we just won't have much leeway for investment. So I hope for some green buds, but also relook at the fiscal rules.

The Politics

Opposition from the Tory and Reform parties is inevitable. They’ll likely frame Labour’s climate policies as economically damaging or impractical as I mentioned above. Sadly Reform will have their toxic message amplified even more with being in Parliament. Internal party tensions, especially with powerful unions, will add another layer of complexity, but the size of the majority will help Starmer and Ed here. And of course let’s not forget the challenge of gaining widespread public support while managing the immediate economic impacts of the transition.

Soooo...

Labour’s energy transition plans are bold and ambitious (and needed!), and they align with global climate goals. But let’s not kid ourselves—this journey is fraught with logistical, economic, and political challenges. Progress here will require strategic planning, strong leadership, and effective communication. It will be interesting to see how Starmer delivers on these top two 'missions', decarbonisation and economic growth. Seemingly influenced by the academic Mariana Mazzucato’s advocacy of “mission-driven government”.

It’s a tall order, but if Labour can pull it off, they’ll have truly “Apollo 13-ed that thing!”

So, here’s to hoping they’ve got their spacesuits on tight, because this mission to decarbonise the UK by 2030 is going to be one hell of a ride.

Who is up for this? I am for one!