Apocalypse is not now (yet)

Not an easy start this Monday… deep red all over and further fall ahead… but… also in the apocalypse there’s room for opportunities!

In my opinion there are 3 sectors we should be pay attention on:

1)     Technologies Company and, mostly, those offering remote services and network for working at home , those offering cloud storage, co-working virtual networks and whatsoever

2)     Pharma, of course…

3)     logistic companies for delivery services in towns (such as Uber eats, glovo etc )

 What kind of names? Well… in tech I was thinking about the following bonds:

 -         IDRSM 3 04/19/24 ( XS1809245829 ) ~1.16% YTM not rated; €300mm issue size

Order Intake: € 3.686Bn Fy 2019 vs €3.437bn FY 2018

Revenues: €3.204Bn FY2019 vs €3.104 FY 2018

EBITDA: €343mm FY 2019 vs. 293mm FY2018

EBIT Margin: 6.9% FY 2019 vs.. 6.4% FY2018

Net Profit: €121mm FY2019 in line with FY2018

Capex: €76mm down from €79mm in FY2018

FCF: €8mm down from €186mm in FY2018 (but in the 4Q2019 : €246mm) mainly due to delay in payments

Leverage: 1.8x Ebitda (1.6x ex. Sia acquisition)

Net Debt: €552mm vs. € 483mm FY 2018 (Net debt in FY2019 excl. SIA acquisition would have been €485mm)

Backlog: +11%

-         ALMAIN 7 ? 10/15/22 ( XS1694628287 ) ~12.31% YTM B2/B €250mm Issue size

AlmavivA is a leading provider of mission-critical IT services in Italy and a leading provider of customer relationship management (''CRM'') outsourcing services in Italy and Brazil. Its business is grouped into three operating divisions organized around principal areas of activity: IT Services, CRM and Almawave, the innovation and new technologies business

 Revenue: €866.7mm FY2019 up by 8.4% YoY

Ebitda: â‚¬101.8mm ; without IFRS 16: â‚¬82.4mm, increased by +5.6% YoY (+6.4% at constant currency)

Ebitda Margin: 9.5% in line with FY2018 (9.8%)

Net Income: €16.3mm vs. €18mm YoY (mainly due to an increase in Taxes)

Net Debt: €199.7mm down from €211.9mm in 4Q2018

Leverage: 2.4x Ebitda

Capex: €28.7mm vs. €23.7mm to support IT Services revenues increase and growth; FY2019 Capex incidence on revenues of 3.3% vs 3.0% in FY2018

FCF: €49mm vs. €7.8mm FY2018

Cash Position: €89mm

 Comment of the company about potential CORONAVIRUS effect:

Although the spread of covid-19 seems to be negatively affecting economies worldwide, every pillar of Almaviva business is resilient. In particular, the CRM Europe has recently signed the contract related to the emergency number customer service, which is now providing n Weak risks of business downturn - Almaviva boasts backup and spare capacity in both CRMs; also IT services can be delivered in smart-working, as already implemented for different activities with many clients, regardless the coronavirus diffusion n Covid-19 outbreak has prompted public central and local administrations, as well as enterprises, to invest more in prevention and security in all sectors, with a special focus on data protection, data analytics, cybersecurity, border control – all fields that Almaviva already covers and in which has always been a market leader

In Pharma sector a name I was looking at is Rossini (Recordati) …yes, also an Italian name but a pharma one who’s leader in the most affected country in Europe by Coronavirus so, perhaps, they will need pharma products!

 ROSINI 6 ? 10/30/25 ( XS1881594946 ) ~4.82% YTC 10/2021; 5.53% YTM

FY2019:

Revenue: €1,481.8mm , +9.6% YoY

Ebitda: €544mm +9% YoY

Net Income: €368.9mm +18.1% YoY including extraordinary tax benefit of €27mm agreed with the Italian tax authorities; excluding tax benefit net income would have been €341.9mm

Net debt: € 902.7 million, compared to net debt of € 588.4 million at 31 December 2018, reflecting dividends distributed for an amount of € 190.9 million and payments for acquisitions, milestones and licenses for a total of around € 425 million

Acquisition of license from Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc. for the exclusive commercialization of Juxtapid? (lomitapide) in Japan ? Acquisition of Signifor?, Signifor? LAR? and osilodrostat from Novartis, transaction closed 23 October ? 2019 net revenue includes € 10.1 million margin on sales of Signifor? and Signifor? LAR ? Subsequent event: Approval obtained in the EU for the marketing of Isturisa? (osilodrostat) in January 2020 ? Agreement finalized with the Italian Internal Revenue Agency on the so-called “patent box”; 2019 Net Income includes tax benefit of € 27 million

relative to previous years and € 8.3 million for 2019

Regarding the 3rd sector mentioned above, I’m struggling to find out some name, happy to hear back from you if you have any idea to share!

Francesco Marani

Credit Trader at Auriga Global Investors

5 å¹´

Today is the day we shine and is the day the client that are not good client receive no bid and the client who are trusted client will get attention from a broker....go and ask any market maker if he bid you or he offer you anything....today and going forward I decide if make sense to trade or not....mifid - price transparency...is all weak....we are all broker and no matter if you are JPM City or Auriga....we all the same shit that as a client you have from time to time disrespected!!!! God save our job

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