APLMA India Loan Market Conference 印度贷款市场会议

（请在本页下半部查看中文翻译。)

Key Takeaways from Syndication Roundtable

2024 has been a mixed year

Volumes in offshore syndications were down in 2024, with fewer large corporate transactions coming to the US dollar market. The offshore market is now 50-60bp more expensive for an Indian borrower as a result of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the INR debt markets held up well, with inflows from the inclusion of INR bonds in global indices and yields coming down. Panellists noted a steady supply of project refinancings and private capex. Strong onshore liquidity has allowed Indian borrowers to complete large deals in the domestic market.

Financial sector to the fore

Indian banks have been active borrowers overseas, taking advantage of pent-up liquidity in the Asian syndicated loan market as a result of a slowdown in regional dealflow. Deals for financial borrowers were up by around 50% in 2024. There is a lot of appetite for non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) across the credit spectrum, from investment-grade to microfinance institutions, which have captured some attention recently. Some international lenders are running up against country limits or sector limits, but the panel sees more capacity – at the right price.

Credit spreads are already very tight

Indian borrowers have always been price sensitive, and the higher US dollar rates have put further pressure on margins and fees. Margins on five-year US dollar loans for top Indian banks are approaching 100bp, which panellists see as a psychological floor for offshore market participants. Some top-tier borrowers have turned to Japanese yen transactions for lower coupons, in a move to reduce withholding tax liabilities. Pricing in the INR market, on the other hand, has held quite firm, despite massive inflows from the rapid growth in mutual funds and insurance premiums.

More acquisitions ahead?

The outlook for M&A activity is bright. Financial sponsors have large amounts of dry powder to put to work. Infrastructure – including digital infrastructure – is a huge opportunity, as is the energy transition: India needs around USD13 trillion to transition to net zero by 2070. But the panel is not expecting a stream of big deals at USD500 million or more to come to the international loan market. While offshore investors will continue to rely on offshore financing for their Indian acquisitions, more situations will be financed in INR and by credit funds.

2025 will be better – probably

Panellists are optimistic about domestic and cross-border opportunities in the new year as supportive policies and investment inflows are expected to remain in place. According to a live poll, over half of the audience expect top-tier Indian borrowers to prefer foreign currency syndicated loans over other funding routes in 2025. There are challenges ahead, however. Panellists are sceptical that US rates will come down quickly. Credit quality in the NBFC sector is being closely watched. And India is changing quickly. Strategies that have worked for banks in the past may not be so attractive in the future.

Please visit our website for more upcoming events information: https://www.aplma.com/events/aplma-events.

银团小组讨论摘要

2024 年是喜忧参半的一年

因进入美元市场的大型企业交易减少，2024 年的离岸银团交易量有所下降。由于利率高企，离岸市场现在对印度借款人来说高出 50-60 个基点。与此同时，受惠于印度卢比债券被纳入全球指数带来的资金流入和收益率下降，印度卢比债券市场表现良好。讲者指出，项目再融资和私人资本支出的项目流供应稳定，强大的在岸流动性使印度借款人能够在本地市场完成大型交易。

金融业脱颖而出

亚洲区内交易流放缓形成了银团贷款市场的流动性被积压，而印度的银行一直把握此时机积极地在海外借款。2024 年，来自金融业借款人的交易增长了约 50%。从投资级到小额信贷机构等横跨整个各种信贷领域的非银金融机构（NBFC）都备受青睐。一些国际贷款人已经接近其国家或行业贷款上限，但讲者认为在合理的价格水平，限额将有上调空间。

信贷利差非常紧缩

印度借款人的价格敏感度一直很高，而更高的美元利率对利润和费用带来了进一步的压力。印度主要银行的五年期美元贷款利润率接近 100 个基点，讲者认为这是离岸市场参与者的底线水平。一些顶级的借款人转向日元交易以获得较低的票息及减少预扣税责任。另一方面，尽管共同基金和保险的快速增长带来了大量资金流入，但印度卢比市场的定价一直企稳。

迎接更多收购交易项目

并购市场的前景明朗，发起人有充裕的资金可投放至项目当中。基健（包括数字基建）以及能源转型均是庞大机遇。印度需要大约 13 万亿美元的资金支持在2070 年实现净零转型，但讲者预计5 亿美元或以上的大型交易流将不会在国际贷款市场上出现。虽然离岸投资者将继续依赖离岸融资进行印度收购交易，但更多项目将以印度卢比和信贷基金进行融资。

2025 年可能会更好

讲者预计在2025年将继续可见政策支持和资金流入，因此对国内和跨境市场均保持乐观。根据会议现场调查结果，超过一半的与会者预计于 2025 年，印度顶级借款人将更偏好外币银团贷款而非其他融资途径。虽然如此，市场仍存在挑战。讲者对美国利率是否会迅速下降持怀疑态度，同时非银金融机构的信贷质量受到密切关注。此外，印度市场正在迅速变化，银行过去有效的策略在未来未必同样适用。

想了解更多本会活动的资訊，请浏览 https://www.aplma.com/events/aplma-events.